Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

I am not demanding anything. I have stolen nothing. I need not “come to terms” with anything.

Place marking with the top rated comment I saw under Marina Hyde's excellent column in the Guardian about Johnson's 'shameless gofers':

Every single day it turns out that rock bottom has yet another basement underneath it

I am not demanding anything. I have stolen nothing. I need not “come to terms” with anything.

*You are demanding we leave the EU - despite there being no cogent plan and having no plan of your own.
*Your vote has stolen my EU citizenship and the rights that went along with it.

You need to come to terms with the fact that you voted to remove rights -which is a despicable thing to do in any circumstances - and that the people whose rights you have helped to remove do not need to be OK with that or help with the plan.

3 friends of mine have left the country due to the vote - one worked for EMA. That was a direct result and an influence I've already had to bear before the shit-show is even on the road.

My daughter will never be able to do Erasmus and get a free uni education.

I don't know you personally, but you cannot say I have taken anything of consequence from you at least.

It occurs to me that 'Make our own Laws' is Newspeak for Unmake Laws. Environmental protection costs money so it goes out of the window.

Working time directives - tired workers are not effective workers and can be dangerous, depending on the job they do, but employees cost, so chuck out working time directives.

Of late we have heard a little less about Health and Safety gone mad. Why? One word - Grenfell. Health and Safety saves lives but it costs. So out it goes, and a forseen tragedy happens.

Sometimes we get together with our neighbours for the greater good and other European countries are our neighbours.

{I am not demanding anything. I have stolen nothing. I need not “come to terms” with anything.}
That is an outright lie.
You (leavers) have deliberately endangered the peaceful co existence of Europeans in the UK and UK citizens in the EU. You are causing unnecessary stress directly, that has been continuing for 3 years to around 4 million people many of whom are terrified that they will lose their house, income or family or any combination and might possibly be expelled from the countries where they are living.

{Liam Fox said that the deal with the EU should be one of the easiest free trade deals in human history.}

That might have had a small element of truth originally, although overblown. IF the UK had accepted the WA at the earliest opportunity the EU would indeed have been very prepared to make trade deals as good as possible on the conditions that they are not quite as good as paying member countries of the EU receive.

The chances now are reducing rapidly.

A decent, safe and equal society costs money.

So we will get Brexit and its "bonfire of red tape"*

*workers rights, womens rights, health and safety....

Compromise is finding what both sides could live with
e.g. having a PV, or signing the WA (e.g. if the HoC is faced with this on 31 October)

That's different to the very different ideal that each would choose if we could

• and btw, Leavers have different ideal Brexits in their respective heads, but Remainers all want to Remain

Obviously, if there is a PV, Remainers will vote to Remain,
whereas Leavers, depending on the Leave option there, might vote to Leave or might abstain

Thank you RTB for your marathon threads insights and reliability. If only our leadership candidates had such perspicacity and loyalty.

My friend's Mum (Leaver) is getting very, very hot and frothy tonight about EU development aid packages to Sudan?? I don't know much about the Sudanese internal politics other than that the aid is partly aimed at stopping migration out of Sudan and improving the living conditions of refugees.

The EU really can't win.. if it does nothing to minimise Africans attempting to escape to Europe then it's criticised as useless, yet if it tries to stem the flow of immigrants then its accused of assisting paramilitaries by putting money into the country to help the civilians.

There will always^^ be some negative story to use to outweigh all the positives that the EU achieves.

Can't decide whether to ignore the Leavers posting...or whether to enter the foray by explaining that the funding goes to independent charities and aid agencies, mainly for food, health and sanitation programs etc...

RED FOR PM!!

Where we can also agree ...

Whatever happens, we need to start tackling the serious structural problems in the UK,

e.g. the growing inequality, the growing gap in life chances between those whose famoies can sub hem a lo and those who can't,

improving the service the NHS provides and improving care services which would also help the NHS

improving education - more SEN support, retaining specialist teachers, sorting out uni fees & maintenance grants, including abolishing parental contributions to loans, which many can't / won't make in full.

the crappy, aging infrastructure that is one factor holding back business and discouraging expansion in some areas

England dominating the other 3 nations - move to a federal system, to save the UK

All of these cost money - and after No Deal, the govt will have less budget available

Compromise is finding what both sides could live with

If there'd been a WA which hadn't destroyed our rights and culture I would have supported it in 2016.

Sadly, but inevitably, they've just doubled down. Conflict seems to be their fuel.

The recent and latent exploits of the 2 candidates for tory leadership, and many others, show clearly who they really are, and what they stand for.

The EU is now taking action on the clear voter suppression in the last 2019 EU elections in britain, as well as 2014.

It's at least becoming clearer what this is. If not what the immediate solutions are.

And yes red I so miss boring politics.

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

NEW:
I understand Brecon by election writ to be moved tomorrow.

By my reckoning that means date likely to be 25th July, days after new occupant in Number 10.

A parting gift from @theresamay‬

PMK. At this rate Brexit will have taken longer than WW1.

Ooh, ipad

the growing gap in life chances between those whose families can sub them a lot and those who can't,

When WWI started, the public was told it would be easily won and "all over by Christmas"

Interesting Panorama on atm, really picking apart Boris mainly.. No doubt dismissed as BBC bias.

.

{If there'd been a WA which hadn't destroyed our rights and culture I would have supported it in 2016.}

A bit puzzled by this assertion. The WA seeks to maintain citizens rights at least as far as is possible.
Not sure what you are meaning about culture, but the EU is keen to preserve regional differences, with the granting of exclusive use of names for products like Camembert or Cheddar for cheeses.

@Woman19

missing the text ...

.

woman19
'No one expects the Euro Spanish inquisition'.

When WWI started, the public was told it would be easily won and "all over by Christmas"

Just as an aside, my late grandparents got married in November 2017, but they had always planned to wait until after the War. As an 8 year old, or thereabouts, I asked why they hadn't waited until 1918. We didn't know then that it would finish the following year was the answer. One of GM's sisters had already lost a husband, so it was understandable that they brought the wedding forward.

I remember my first visit to Berlin at a time when the Wall was still standing but had been breached. There was a line of crosses near the border commemorating people who had been shot trying to escape. I recall that the last one to be shot had lost his life sometime like 4 months before the Wall was opened. If only he had known!

So Sweden has the same culture as Italy does it? Just picking two countries at random.

A parting gift from @theresamay‬

Do we take it that May didn't support Johnson then?