Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

I see what you did there leclerc you sausage 🤣

louise welcome back.

I think most of "us"* would be content with that. Not happy obv. Coz its shit and in every way worse than the deal we currently have by being an EU member.

*remainers on this thread

Louise imo the issue is that the ship has sailed already.
The ‘lets Come up with a compromise that would bring Leavers and remainders together’ should have been the very first thing the uk did (along with ‘Why did people vote the way they did’).

Instead now we have Remain, the WA and No Deal. There is nothing else to compromise on.
The WA is the one thing that is sort of in the middle and a lot of Leavers and remainers will be happy to compromise on (because it avoids the two extremes of no deal or remain).
The issue is how to present it to make it palatable. Because there is no other choice in the menu...

I can't see how the WA will pass tbh.

There is no more negotiation.

Its quite simple, really.

Sign it, revoke or no deal.

There simply isn't the HofC numbers for it to pass, unless large swathes of MPs vote differently to the last 3 times....

Sadly that went about how I expected it would go. Also, it really, really isn’t my job to say “what this is all for”.

Asking me what I want to gain is potentially more productive so I’ll try and answer that one. What I see as gains are the same kind of things I’ve said when I’ve been asked these kind of questions before.

I see it as a gain that our laws made by elected people whom we can vote to remove. I see it as a gain that our parliament will have enhanced powers and more responsibility.

I see it as a gain that Britain will be able to run its own trade policy. In the long term, being able to trade worldwide without having to level EU mandated common external tarrifs will benefit our economy.

I see it as a gain that as a net contributor to the EU budget, if we are no longer a member then the money we are currently paying into that buget can be spent here instead.

I see it as a gain that our government will be able to decide our immigration rules, determining who can come to Britain and on what terms.

But....louise...we have always been able to do that.

For whatever reason successive govts have chosen not to.

louise every single thing you’ve mentioned has been thoroughly debunked a hundred times over.

I’m not going to bother trying again but suffice to say, that’s exactly why we are in this mess.

Leavers aren’t striving for things that are even going to change for the better.

No, sorry we haven’t. the European Parliament cannot even propose legislation far less legislate by itself. Even if it could, the only people electors in Britain can vote to remove are the UK group of 73/751 MEPs. Other parts of the EU, the Comission for example, are not elected by the voters at all.

So why did you ask then Bear? You asked me what I wanted to see and I told you.

The european parliament can propose and ammend .....oh fuck ive just realised I can't do this again.

louise I asked because I hoped you’d actually listened to the reality of what is achievable.

We pay less than 1% of GDP in EU contributions and will lose frictionless access to the worlds largest trading bloc.

That fact you’ve listed that point alone shows you’ve not taken any notice of what this means in practice.

The European Parliament cannot inititiate legislation, and cannot legislate by itself.

The questions that need to be asked, not of Louise or Leavers here but the politicians who spout on about easy trade deals:
Which trade deals do they want to do? Which of these trade deals will be to the benefit of the UK? What is really stopping them now? A few deals with sub Saharan Africa or the Faroes aren't going to cut it. Are they prepared to come up front and say Yes, the NHS is up for grabs if we want a trade deal with America?

Which laws are they unhappy with that the EU makes? Some of these laws come initially via international bodies - do they want out of those also? How many EU laws have had extra bits added to them by the UK Government, which made them unpopular laws and enabled the Government to pass the buck to the EU? Like the fisheries policies - where the UK decided that the quotas got sold along with the boats, not the EU. But it's been a jolly nice excuse for Farage to parade along the Thames pretending he cares about the fishing industry.

As for Immigration - Blair messed up there and underestimated how many E Europeans would want to come. However there is nothing to stop us asking those EU citizens who aren't self supporting after 3 months to Leave, so why don't we? Why don't we let more Commonwealth Citizens in? Except this will cause problems - because when people go on about the Commonwealth, it's not really more Nigerians, Kenyans and Ghanaians that they want, it's more white people. Excepting here British Indian/Pakistanis who would like to get their relatives in. When May and Johnson went off to India with great fanfare to do a trade deal, it didn't go down well - more visas was the price. And they came home with considerably less fanfare.

Perhaps we should dispense with this whole democracy lark and just get Theresa May to play spin the bottle on the three options*. It's as sane as anything else in Parliament.

*If it's Leave, does she get Johnson or Rees-Mogg?

The UK parliament does not legislate by itself either. I believe the unelected civil service and Lords are involved too.

The thing is, politicians aren’t going to answer the first 2 blocks of questions because they don’t give a shit about Remainers and Leavers aren’t asking those questions because they only actually care about immigration.

But the biggest deception is this: we could easily have taken back control of our borders already under European Parliament and Council Directive 2004/38/EC, which allows EU member states to repatriate EU nationals after three months if they have not found a job or do not have the means to support themselves. In this month’s debate on the House of Lords EU subcommittee report on EU migration, I challenged the government on why we were not availing ourselves of this directive – and I got no response

If the public knew we had this ability, perhaps the fear that exists would dissipate. Why is the government not using it, and why is the British public not aware of it?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/31/britain-take-back-control-immigration-eu-directive-brexit

The EU’s rules on immigration are stricter than the UK’s. The immigration “rules” we have, we have by the government’s choice. Yet people want to give more power to this government.

The only part I agree with is the idea that our govt won't be able to blame EU for everything will have more responsibility. I just don't know what that will change. Grayling doing his 'specials' has hardly been dragged over hot coals, has he? What do we do with them once we are positive it is X's fault?

I also doubt we won't be blaming EU for some time to come for the cock-up that we have begun here.

Also can't be arsed to go through each point all over again but I've at least tried to be flexible? Non?

You asked me what I wanted to gain Bear. should I instead have listed some different things that I don’t want to gain, because they’d be more in line with what you’d prefer?

louise you don’t just gain the EU contributions.

What we lose because of the lack of frictionless trade massively outweighs the contributions.

That’s always been Leavers problem - a complete failure to weigh up the pros and cons

Maybe you should start with what you don't want to lose?
What did you hate so much about growing up in a country with a single market access for example?

Sadly that went about how I expected it would go

Sadly, when you are firmly in the wrong (and that ridiculous list of things proves that you are) you are always going to get the same answer: You're wrong.
Wrong does not need to be discussed - it needs to be dismissed.

As ever though - you manage to make yourself sound like the victim; because people, from whom you are stealing something they value, ask that you articulate what this thing you are demanding looks like - or ask that why, when you want something, it is them that should give ground..

You have voted to remove our citizenship and our rights against our will. You need to come to terms with the fact that we will never be OK with that, that we will hold you responsible and that we are already making a huge concession in peacefully allowing the democratic outrage that is the removal of citizen rights to take place. But it's not our job to give any more ground, or to help shape the undefined something you chose to inflict on us. And you need to accept that if you cannot define this something, or your definition is tied up in facts that have been debunked many many times - then we will be rightfully angry that you have stolen from us for no good reason. And above all you need to accept that this anger is well deserved and that you are not the victim.

We certainly gained in terms of the contribution we got for scientific research.

We gained with EU health professionals. We ought to train up more of our own Health care staff, but we haven't bothered to in more than 70 years so why are we going to start now?

x post @Bearbehind
I still don't understand really what Leavers found so detrimental by living in UK that they think what is already happening to our global reputation is worth it. We haven't even begun Brexit and already look ridiculous. That alone was not worth "making our govt more responsible" as we can see it just gives them further freedom to cock up on a bigger scale with longer lasting repercussions.

Liam Fox said that the deal with the EU should be one of the easiest free trade deals in human history.

David Davis said that there would be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside.

Michael Gove claimed that the "day after we vote to leave we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want."

Boris said that Italian prosecco makers and German car manufacturers would put pressure on to make sure that there would be continued tariff free access.

These are the Brexiters' own claims. So why should Remainers have to "concede" anything?

Presumably these Brexiters are prepared to stand by their statements. No?

{I see it as a gain that Britain will be able to run its own trade policy. In the long term, being able to trade worldwide without having to level EU mandated common external tariffs will benefit our economy. }

Despite having been told this umpteen times we can try again:
ALL trade involves agreements between 2 sides, so the UK does not get to call the shots alone. Most of the goods the UK wants to trade with are already covered through EU membership and any changes will have to involve the EU during negotiations (WTO rules say that all interested parties get to have a say). There are issues with Quotas, so beef from Argentina perhaps, has a certain amount 'dedicated' to come to the UK. This would have to be renegotiated. All this will take years. There are also issues with Most Favoured Nation rules so you can't just fix new tariffs just as you fancy, as you have to offer the same 'deal' to everyone.