Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

"What really did for Brexit was a General Election which left us with a parliament almost mirroring the 52/48 split in the referendum."

Yes, the problem with saying the referendum has to be implemented is that our constitution requires laws be passed by parliament

We have the major problem that Leaver MPs don't agree on an acceptable form of Brexit
Hence, no particular form of Leave has a majority or anywhere near a majority

Similarly with voters:
When Remain is vs one particular form of Leave, then Remain wins, because some Leavers prefer it to No Deal or the WA or Norway++

With the referendum, voters were faced with generic / delusional Leave, not a specific Leave

Although YouGov's Peter Kellner analysed the polls since the ref and said that for a couple of years now,
Remain has always beaten Leave in a straight 2-choice contest, even unspecified Leave

The constitutional roadmap to Brexit should have been that one party put Brexit as the centrepiece of their manifesto and then win a GE,
so they have the MPs to implement it

OH....that was UKIP

I wish I had bar charts (however dodgy) popping up on my screen. I only seem to get fugly clothes. And tea.

The constitutional roadmap to Brexit should have been that one party put Brexit as the centrepiece of their manifesto and then win a GE,
so they have the MPs to implement it

That was what the Conservatives did in 2017. Why didn't it work? Because Labour did the same thing.

(oh and TM turned out to be a useless campaigner with a tin ear ill supported by equally tin eared Eeyore. She then proceeded to cook up a deeply unpopular list of kitchen sink policies her over
confident advisers convinced her she could coat tail on for the manifesto and didn't consult her cabinet)

Tom Watson should remember it never was, is or will be All About Remain.

Queen I've got voltarol joint pain relief so it could be worse.

My fashion ads are quite cool cos my teenage DDs make me shop for them - it's just depressing that only the 30 year younger versions of me can wear them

I'm quite happy blocking ads and scripts and actually seeing 90% content, so will have to take it on trust there's anything showing on the page.

I suspect that in a GE more people would be angry about things other than Brexit - schools/hospitals/roads/tax/houses. The BXP as it stands has no manifesto and people want action in these areas. From what I can tell it seems to be dawning that the govt will have less £ after Brexit and those 'real life' issues will become more pressing at the same time. I suspect many leavers wouldn't want to risk a new party taking control of the really important things, as they see it not understanding the inter-connectedness we've been talking about

howabout Problem was, the 2 parties had very different versions of Leave
As I posted: the problem is that Leave MPs from different parties can't agree together to pass anything, or on how to Brexit

You - and everyone:^
What do you see happening once the new Tory leader, probably BJ, is elected ?

Will JC win an NC vote immediately,
or maybe in October, when a few Tory MPs may be desperate enough to avoid No Deal that they bring dowwn their own govt ?

Any bets on the next GE date

Any bets on the next GE date

End of September 2019 (I haven’t actually got a clue but thought I’d have a guess anyway).

{Queen I've got voltarol joint pain relief so it could be worse.}

Adblockers help clear the screen of some of this clutter.
I keep wanting to reply in a succinct manner to the 'Mumsnet Insight' adverts, highlighting where a voucher can be placed perhaps.

{End of September 2019 (I haven’t actually got a clue but thought I’d have a guess anyway).}

Is it a bit like a 'pin the tail on an ass'* competition?

*may have alternate spellings.

Define what's necessary and what's unnecessary red tape @Clavinova . I, for example be, am pretty pleased that there is boring old health and safety legislation.

Theresa May refusing to sign up to "whatever happens"

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48787708

Theresa May has refused to promise unconditional support for her successor's Brexit plan.

Asked if she would back whichever Brexit outcome the next prime minister achieves, including a no-deal Brexit, she said that amounted to agreeing to "whatever happens in future".

(contd)

actually very slightly increasing my opinion of her. Although the bar is antipodean to begin with ....

Leavers dont like health and safety.

Its political correctness gone mad, I tell you!!

i may have been watching Stewart Lee on iplayer

After the new PM is announced what's that old saying that springs to mind? Rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic? Just thinking of some of lovely faces we'll get on the front row of those chairs.

I'm just gonna say dieselgate re the effectiveness of the EU regulatory process.

Meanwhile Boris is threatening/promising to fire any cabinet minsters that refuse to back a no-deal Brexit ...

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-no-deal-brexit-cabinet-ministers-tory-leadership-contest-a8977356.html

There is a phrase my DF would use "pulito palazzo" which would have sinister overtones for Italians of a Certain Age ...

{Theresa May refusing to sign up to "whatever happens"}

I feel that she understands the WA or something very close to it has to be signed, if the UK is leaving, but was completely outgunned in her attempts to get it accepted, through a series of significant mistakes.
Although she has fantasies of her own, and some other significant failings she is less delusional than most with respect to EU dealings.

{sinister overtones for Italians of a Certain Age ...}

Supporting HS2 perhaps in a concrete sense?

howabout Maybe we should accept that no system is foolproof against criminality or business lying

Should the EU - and UK - give up climate change measures, because some auto manufacturers broke the law ?

Shall I say Birmingham 6, Guildford 4 ... and keep listing cases all night about the effectiveness- in fact fairness - of the British Judiciary system
Give up on having our own criminal courts then ?

Shall I quote all the dead babies and children under the British system of protection ?
Abolish SS ?
......

I am pleased that at least the EU hands out swingeing fines to the giant UK moopolies who break competition rules

The companies that the UK on its own would just roll over for or give a derisory fine.

EU regulations are tightening up on tax havens too - hence the panic motivating some very wealthy Brexiteres and donors
Yes, it's late to tackle this, but some members - including the UK - fought a fierce rearguard action against ATAD

Incredible as it seems, maybe Theresa May is looking to be the "line in the sand" which some Tory MPs won't cross. Is she possibly setting herself up as a rallying point ? Bearing in mind how Boris continually undermined her when in cabinet ...

{I'm just gonna say dieselgate re the effectiveness of the EU regulatory process.}

There are (as is often the case) a number of aspects to this.
The amount of fuel and 'particulates' emitted are down to basic physics, but telling the public that a vehicle is 'less polluting' is a lie.

Moving 'things' from one place to another involves pollution and heat, which is quantifiable in physics, but the disadvantages of the various ways to achieve this 'work' can be varied by design and technology. Electric vehicles place the 'obvious' pollution out of the majority of the public's gaze. It is therefore down to the combination of technology and 'politics' (usually at odds because politicians are not often bright) to decide what is most appropriate.

Another poll showing that voters as a whole - as distinct from just Tory members - slightly favour Hunt

If yet more skeletons conttinue to fall out of the bottomless BJ closet over the next months until a GE,
we may find that the Tories chose the candidate that Labour can more easily beat

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Interesting.
Tory members might currently think Boris has a far better chance of beating Corbyn, but today’s @IpsosMORI^ poll gives Hunt a marginally bigger lead over h^im