Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

Clavinova is very good at the copying and pasting and not so good at the interpretation

Wasn't it one of the Westministenders' own (British ) relatives (father?) who'd been behind pushing for the restrictions on the use of dangerous pesticides - which led to the bendy banana "myth"?

When there is talk of a GE there is then talk of Brexit party being involved.

Because with a GE they could win seats. As with the sterling success of UKIP in Parliament. .

But this time Farage with his repackaged UKIP might do better because for the last two GEs the Tories weren't in meltdown in the same way.

But Clavinova has answered her own question. The EU want to cut it's red tape. So why aren't you applauding this?

Logic. Never a Quitling's strong point...

Doesn't the article completely contradict what you posted lunchtime yesterday - Westminster controls etc....?

I don't think its contradictory at all? I listed as much as I could yesterday of the totality of things that Westminster currently governs. However looking into the future, what I think that article is saying is that the world (not just the UK) will continue to be increasingly interconnected. So whilst Westminster may govern, to succeed it will have to increasingly reflect and participate in international procedures and principles?

Regardless of whether any one country tries to swim against that tide, I interpret the article as saying that the interdependence is inevitable. On an individual level we, like ants, are already interdependent. We can't construct our own car, or telephone or computer...whatever the Faragists or the ERG etc try and do now, in the long term interconnectedness is unstoppable.

OK so if You Brexit wins enough seats they become the leading party and their leader becomes PM.
I knew that really, or did when my brain was working properly.
I’ll crawl back into my hole before I ask any more stupid questions.

Wiodpidgeons, good point about the Brexit party MPs!
Nigel Farage has tried numerous times ( 7 I believe , but I'd have to look it up ) to be an MP and failed. UKIP had one in Clacton on sea (who even UKIP were not fond of ) at one time. Not sure what became of him but he deflected from the conservatives.

I am guessing they are waiting for an election then hope to have people representing them in key seats/ marginals/ big leave areas etc.
My own MP would do well as a Brexit party candidate but I think he'll stay a Tory and hope for a job in the cabinet if Boris gets in. He is as right wing as you can get and the Brexit party wouldn't put anyone up but I don't know.

I suppose they might have to recruit new people? Don't really know to be honest!

I think the success or otherwise of the Brexit Party largely depends on where we are with Brexit at the next GE.

If we get near to the end of October, no deal is agreed with the EU and we have a vote of no confidence that the PM loses....then in a succeeding GE I'd expect the Brexit Party to draw a large number of votes - I'd be doubtful they'd win lots of seats. I think UKIP got somewhere north of 4m votes in one GE and won no seats.

If we agree a deal with the EU and a new PM seeks a fresh mandate to continue to govern afterwards, I'd still expect the Brexit Party to figure, but they'd receive fewer votes IMO and likely get more second and third places under FPTP.That's my take anyhow.

BTW just as an aside Conservative Home latest poll of readers on PM Johnson v PM Hunt says 66% BJ to 30% JH (I look so you don't have to )

66 percent is huge for Boris Johnson. They may as well all vote now really. At least make him do some work before the summer recess!

It's hard to judge what will happen with the Brexit party. UKIP did get a lot of local councillors, who mostly made a complete hash of things and got themselves voted out the next time round. With these last Local elections, The Brexit party didn't put up candidates, so we can't gauge what the support might be there.

They didn't win Peterborough and maybe should have walked it. As for the Brecon and Radnor by-election coming up, we need to see what % of the vote they get there.

The Brexit party would need about 400 MP's in order to get overall control of Parliament ( I'm guessing here, but it's a big number needed, something like this) or they ' do a deal' with conservatives and they drop the DUP to make up the numbers if short after the next GE.

Good point re Brecon and Radnor, UKIP for reference have never polled higher than 4th there and the 2nd place has recently been the Lib Dems (since 2015) So I'd expect the Lib Dems to win handsomely.

Before 2015 it was mostly a Liberal/Lib Dem seat (occasionally marginal) since they gained it in a by-election in 1985. Not naturally good Brexit Party territory there I'd suggest.

BTW just as an aside Conservative Home latest poll of readers on PM Johnson v PM Hunt says 66% BJ to 30% JH (I look so you don't have to)

Thanks louise 66% is closer than I thought. Bozo is clearly going to walk it.

Goodness knows what will happen with the Brexit party. I think right now there will be a split of Leave votes between the Cons and Brex.

I think Remainers will be split between Lib Dem’s, Greens and Labour. Although Brexiters will tell us a vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit.

If Corbyn quits and is replaced by a sane Remainer it will be a Labour majority. I always vote Lib Dem but would switch to Labour if they had a decent leader.

.

{Clavinova is very good at the copying and pasting and not so good at the interpretation wink

Wasn't it one of the Westministenders' own (British wink) relatives (father?) who'd been behind pushing for the restrictions on the use of dangerous pesticides - which led to the bendy banana "myth"?

Not quite.
Through an odd combinations of acquaintances I have, I had tea with the lead EU representative (who went on to be commissioner General of the EP, now retired) who had worked on the 'bananas' case.
One of the biggest banana growers was regularly spraying crops with insecticide which would make workers ill and caused many deaths, to which the EU rightly objected. A long legal battle ensued where the EU took on the WTO and eventually won the case.
The 'curvature' of the bananas came about as the different varieties and types had to be formalised.

The insecticides used are a close chemical relative to Zyclon B, made infamous in WW2, being nerve agents which were widely used for pest control. IIRC at the time (mid 1940s) the USA used about 70% of production to spray crops, much of the rest was used by some of the Germans. See also Fritz Haber if you are interested.

The80sweregreat

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-parliament-factbox/factbox-with-the-dup-opposed-pm-mays-working-majority-is-minus-7-idUKKCN1NU0HW

320 is a working majority. Nominally it's 326 (out of 650), but 7 Sinn Fein MPs don't take their seats and the speaker + 3 deputies don't vote, so you need >50% of 639 = 320.

When there is talk of a GE there is then talk of Brexit party being involved.
How can that happen when they don’t have any MPs?

Considering that we've just learned the 28 of them already elected to the EU parliament have failed to form or join a group due to laziness and incompetence - I'm not actually loving their chances of fielding 600+ MPs and having them run election campaigns in the event of a surprise (not so surprise) election.

Some interesting bits from the Lib Dem leadership hustings

www.libdemvoice.org/victoria-derbyshire-lib-dem-leadership-hustings-open-thread-61291.html

This stood out for me. Both candidates state that they view the PV they both advocate for as final.

Jo: She says that "in politics you always argue for what you believe in. A People’s Vote would put the Brexit issue to bed for good."

Ed: says that "we wouldn’t have a third referendum. A second referendum with the extra information that we know now would be final."

So, have another vote, give us the "right" result (presumably?) and "put the Brexit issue to bed for good." Good to know the prospective leaders of the Liberal Democrats think like that, isn't it?!

Considering that we've just learned the 28 of them already elected to the EU parliament have failed to form or join a group due to laziness and incompetence - I'm not actually loving their chances of fielding 600+ MPs and having them run election campaigns in the event of a surprise (not so surprise) election.

There was talk of a Tory-BXP "pact" to maximise the chances of a pro-Leave parliament after the next GE.

Since the word "venal" would need to be invented to describe BXP supporters if it didn't exist, I really can't see that working. But if it were to work, it's quite a complex task.

I can see a GE having an outcome with no one party having a majority, thus if the Brexit party win a few seats they could end up in a coalition. Perhaps Tory-DUP-Brexit ? Just when you think things can't get any worse...

The problem is the first/only referendum has solved fuck all. In fact all it's done is highlight how stupid some people are, thinking that a 52/48 result could somehow be translated into the required 70/30 you generally need for a democracy to function with.

Imagine a school saying it was only going to provide male toilets and changing facilities because 52% of pupils are boys ? Because that's Brexit "democracy".

I can see a GE having an outcome with no one party having a majority, thus if the Brexit party win a few seats they could end up in a coalition. Perhaps Tory-DUP-Brexit ? Just when you think things can't get any worse...

Bear in mind the DUP won't support a Brexit that treats NI differently. Which has already pissed off the extreme Brexiteers.

Ultimately Brexiteers have strangled themselves with their lies. There never was a single view of Brexit, and maybe, just maybe, God was telling us something by creating a parliament where the DUP were needed to stall - not advance - Brexit.

In fact, if I were a religious DUP supported (there might be one or two) I would reflect on what God appeared to be telling me, and the UK. Although I don't think many DUP supporters are too used to conversations with their consciences.

No, failure to implement the result of the referendum has meant that it looks like it has resolved nothing. This is because that's what those whore are determined not to implement the result want it to look like, just now.

Remember, when asked, our MPs have failed to support the deal offered and agreed with the EU and also failed even to "indicate" support for any alternative option.

Incidentally, the rush to suck US cock when tendering for aircraft might yet kill a few Remainers ...

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/06/27/boeing_737_max_control_bug_found/

Yet another deadly and baffling safety flaw has been uncovered in Boeing's 737 Max line of airplanes.

(contd)

DorisDaysDadsDogsDead
But Clavinova has answered her own question.The EU want to cut it's red tape. So why aren't you applauding this?

I am applauding it but the EU have been too slow to act - we held the referendum 3 years ago - we're leaving.

Most of the remainers on this forum refuse to acknowledge that EU red tape has been a problem - no doubt there are bureaucrats in Brussels still holding the same view.

lonelyplanetmum
From a cursory look, I disagreed with you on nearly half of the areas of law that you mentioned yesterday in any case - EU regulations have more influence than you think.

No, failure to implement the result of the referendum has meant that it looks like it has resolved nothing. This is because that's what those whore are determined not to implement the result want it to look like, just now.

What really did for Brexit was a General Election which left us with a parliament almost mirroring the 52/48 split in the referendum. Which as we are now finding out (or in the case of less thick people, knew beforehand) has made ramming any form of Brexit down the throat of the UK impossible. Because it's still the same as all the men in the UK telling the women what they should be doing in life.

A number is a number. 52% is 52% whether it's people that voted leave or "men in the UK".

Unless we want to go down the Jonah Ryan route of ignoring "muslim maths" as a rabble rousing campaign cry ?