Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

Trineesh Biswas**@TrineeshB

Arrived in Bilbao from Geneva without passport checks, only to find our bags had been sent to a separate room to clear customs.

"What a great illustration of how Switz. is in the Schengen travel area but not the EU customs union!" I exclaimed.

Think I heard my wife's eyes roll.

Iambuffy - your link doesn't work for me It says it is a "local file"

Grr.
Sky news article about Mr goves field to fork study

lonelyplanetmum
I found this article well put.

You missed out this nugget from the article;

"EU-inspired over regulation, as well as by the irritating superiority of EU law in British courts. It is fueled by tiresome and cumbersome procedures that a club of 28 countries has to go through to reach decisions and by the often perverse rulings of the European Court of Justice..."

Interestingly - (Lord) David Howell is George Osborne's father-in-law.

BBC Kent just now and the Chairman of Canterbury Conservatives Association has just been on saying that he personally has been told by the higher eschelons of the EU that they will negotiate a new deal; in particular relating to the backstop and the time limit

I've posted before about the state of the Tory party in Canterbury (corruption etc) but barefaced lies on local radio...what the actual fuck?! He supports Boris, of course, because Hunt shouldn't get into "personal attacks" .

www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/they-call-me-the-busmaker-20190626186961

{Chairman of Canterbury Conservatives Association}
Strangely his bedsheets were unusually sticky this morning, but he failed to mention it.

@lonely very interesting about ants and whether we are starting to go that way. I'd suggest actually when we were pre-industrial we did work a bit more like ants - worker drones and the rich queen bee style. Each household would make do and mend etc. I think actually the tech advances and international globablisation have allowed more diversity and individuality. A lot of authoritarians don't like that (you can't buy it and it isn't guaranteed from an expensive education) as they don't always get to the top of the pile when individuals get credit and notoriety. We are going backwards, arguably against evolution.

Now I will go back and catch up!

The latest medicine plans are not terribly reassuring. There is also a weary note added into the blurb.
www.gov.uk/government/news/medicines-and-medical-products-supply-government-updates-no-deal-brexit-plans

Any sign of Labour imploding over we the latest bout of antisemitism?

Maybe Corbyn is playing a seriously clever game. He makes the Labour Party utterly unelectable. Then when the Tories are at their most vulnerable he quits as leader and lets someone sane take over.
The other explanation is that he’s utterly dire as a leader.

I noticed the introductory paragraph complaining about over-regulation - which a) wasn't consistent with the rest of the article and b) conveniently ignored the fact that new regulations have to be agreed by all member countries and in many cases, the "over-onerous" requirements were the UK's idea

"Bendy bananas" come to mind

Quite apart from the fact that the way that individual countries choose to implement EU laws in their own law is up to, well, the individual countries - and the UK often chooses to implement them with bells and whistles while blaming the EU

Clavinova - what do you think over-regulation is? Harmful to the masses or the rich guy at the top of the pile? Taking the example of pesticides - clearly the farmer wants to have a full harvest to make £££ and will likely use a cheap pesticide to achieve this if he is allowed. Is he aware the pesticides can cause cancer, still birth and birth defects? Maybe. Will that stop him? History says it is unlikely.

Now tell us again why regulation is a bad thing? Or give us some examples, please?

I love that sneaky dig on the end ohyou Small pleasures for the civil servants having to deal with the utter pile of shite the government have dropped on them.

Looks like Japan won't be tricked into another NDA again www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/27/japan-blunt-warning-dont-lead-britain-eu-brexit-foreign-minister

Peregrina
I grew up in North Kent in the 1970's. Working class, small village.
There was a 'lovely gentleman' who lived across the road from us.
One day I had to knock on his door to ask for my ball back (aged 6?)
I called him 'Mr Darkie' as the adults all called him 'Darkie'.
amazingly he smiled and said what nice manners I had.
My Mother was 'proud' when I told her.
She still gets her paper (Daily Mail) from 'the Paki shop' and voted Leave as she 'hates the French, they clog up the pavements'

Link to 'farm to fork' initiative here;

www.gov.uk/government/news/gove-appoints-dimbleby-to-pioneer-farm-to-fork-revolution

prettybird
"Bendy bananas" come to mind

That's one over-regulation mistake the EU (almost) admit to.On their Euro Myths web page they actually answer 'Yes' (and 'No' with accompanying excuses) to, 'Is this true'?

LonelyTiredandLow
Now tell us again why regulation is a bad thing? Or give us some examples, please?

Over regulation/too much red tape has been a long standing problem within the EU - you can deny it if you like:

A quick google - slightly random examples:

2005 EU Tackles Its Own Bureaucracy

In a concerted drive to slash excessive red tape, the EU Commission on Tuesday abolished 68 rules the body believes are not only superfluous, but also harmful to the EU.

In March, EU industry commissioner Günther Verheugen, announced the rehauling of the EU's excessive bureacracy and drew up a blacklist of rules that he said should be consigned to the rubbish bin.

www.dw.com/en/eu-tackles-its-own-bureaucracy/a-1720296

2010 The European Commission recently said it was "on track to exceed its target of cutting red tape by 25% by 2012". But businesses shouldn't get their hopes up.

So far, only a few of the Commission's major proposals have been fully approved.

"While the Commission contends it could ultimately cut red tape by 31%,"I wouldn't say we've gotten anywhere close so far," said Andrea Renda, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, who was a consultant to the Commission on the project."

www.euractiv.com/section/innovation-industry/news/eu-slow-to-deliver-on-promise-to-cut-paperwork/

Cut EU red tape:Report from the Business Taskforce
Updated 24 February 2014

www.gov.uk/government/publications/cut-eu-red-tape-report-from-the-business-taskforce/cut-eu-red-tape-report-from-the-business-taskforce

May 2015 The Better Regulation plans unveiled by the European Commission aim to prune or put off pointless proposals for legislation before they progress through the EU’s complicated machinery.

"Mr Timmermans, a former Dutch foreign minister, has already taken an axe to 80 planned Commission policies this year: only 23 laws will be proposed, compared to an average annual rate of 130 over the previous five years."

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/european-commission-moves-to-cut-red-tape-by-overhauling-rule-making-procedure-10261983.html

2019 FIGHTING RED TAPE
"Among many financial industry groups setting out wish-lists for the next set of EU leaders, the German Investment Funds Association (BVI) has called on Europe to match the U.S. when it comes to prioritizing competitiveness.The EU must rethink its “massive over-regulation for the European asset management industry which has to dedicate enormous resources to [achieving] compliance,”

"Among many financial industry groups setting out wish-lists for the next set of EU leaders, the German Investment Funds Association (BVI) has called on Europe to match the U.S. when it comes to prioritizing competitiveness.The EU must rethink its “massive over-regulation for the European asset management industry which has to dedicate enormous resources to [achieving] compliance,”

Ah, deregulate the financial markets.

Can't see anything going wrong with that...

Clavinova- yes I thought that any Leaver looking for confirmation would focus on that one sentence in the (Conservative authored) article.

However surely a broad minded approach is to look at the overall gist of what the article is saying, and assess its validity by thinking about it, looking at other sources and so on. Isn't it true that life in the 21st century is inevitably and increasingly interdependent with an entirely global network and web of international products, procedures and principles? Whatever lies ahead it cannot be a reduction from what went before in terms of interconnectedness.

In a way, this line of thought is comforting. Although it is tragic that if the Faragists, ERG or Johnson get their way there will be some unnecessary casualties. It is comforting, that logically beyond that there has to be a realisation of the extent of our interconnectedness.

Do a little bit more cutting and pasting and while you are about it, find the examples where the UK has added extra red tape to that proposed by Brussels.

Also do a bit more research cutting and pasting on why the regulations about bananas came about and where they came from.

Oh and talking of too much red tape - Grenfell. A bit more compliance with H&S aka Red Tape might have stopped that happening.

lonelyplanetmum
Doesn't the article completely contradict what you posted lunchtime yesterday - Westminster controls etc....?

Peregrina
I don't want to cut all regulations/red tape - but my links above show that the EU Commission were aiming to cut (pointless) red tape by 31%.

I am I’ll and have been just lurking for a while. Quite often I fall asleep involuntarily and my tablet, which I am holding, hits me on the head. I then lose my place.
Anyway I’m following threads, probably quite incoherently, but one thing keeps jumping out at me.
When there is talk of a GE there is then talk of Brexit party being involved.
How can that happen when they don’t have any MPs?

The linked this on the Johnson vs Hunt thread in the hope that a BeLeaver would explain to me why Johnson is the best option.
Here is is for anyone else who can be bothered with pesky facts.

I don't think many of us have problems with pointless red tape, so I don't see that this is a criticism of the EU. But some Red Tape, being cut can have unforeseen consequences. As no doubt some people thought about the fire regs and Grenfell. Although that wasn't unforeseen.

Regulations on things like restricting pesticides - we ourselves don't see it, but then the effect of them on e.g. insect populations decreasing begins to be noticed. So I would hesitate to start calling out Red Tape as pointless, but if it is so, I think the UK Govt is a match for anyone there.