Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

A quick skim of the newspapers show some questions and opposition coming out against Johnsons Brexit position - from within the Tory party!

Where the fuck are Labour? Why are they not pinning down policy, offering alternatives and basically doing their job of being the opposition? The SNP are making more noise than they are.

{Where the fuck are Labour? }
With all the rain and warm weather it is getting hectic in Corbyn's potting allotment.

Sorry, remove potting, I was going to say potting shed previously.

Louise you haven’t answered the question of what powers you want back. You simply listed areas of shared competence.

What specific powers do you want back in which particular areas?

There’s something nasty in the potting shed.

I appreciate your list, louise
It's useful to understand the motivations of at least one Leaver

@LouiseCollins28

Those are all areas where the members agreed unanimously and voluntarily to transfer those powers to the EU.
The UK could have vetoed any of them. .

But definitely if the UK has changed its mind it is better for everyone that the UK leave the EU even if it is difficult and damaging in other ways.

I just wish they were doing a better job of actually leaving.

First, the important bit for me isn't that rules we'd set for ourselves would be better or worse, it is that they'd be rules we set, and we can change

I don’t trust this government as far as I could throw them.
I live in Lancashire, there’s huge local opposition to fracking here. Lancashire county council rejected an application to frack in Lancashire. The government overturned it and fracking has gone ahead.

But that’s fine that we have fracking in Lancashire, imposed on a population that don’t want it by Westminster.

Slightly off tangent, but I struggle to get excited about Westminster sovereignty (which we already bloody well have).

If we lost the EU rules we'd only end up enacting US rules.

"No man is an island" is ironic prose, not a statement of fact.

It’s all too easy to produce of list of shared competences from an EU website.

If you’re to argue loss of sovereignty and a desire for repatriation of powers - you need to define which powers in which areas for the point to have any weight.

In EFTA, countries only have to follow about iirc 25% of EU laws
So something of a compromise for the 2 sides

Article 112 of the EEA / EFTA treaty allows member nations to set limits on immigration if "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties" arise.

So that's a Brexit option to tackle what was to tackle a major issue in the ref

Some "EU / EEA" laws are actually global laws just folded into EEA law, e.g. car safety regs that manufacturers must fulfill
What R North calls the"double coffin lid": leaving the EU would still mean having to obey those laws

@LouiseCollins28 , you make interesting points but where does this take back control thing stop? I live in the north of England and am fed up of Londoncentric law making. In my Council area, all the investment goes on other towns in the borough and not mine. Local police onlyseem to focus on a part of the town and not my part. People use our toad to walk their dogs from out of the area but don't clean up their dog shit. People who access a big estate via our road, always drive like twats on our road and you can always predict that they are going on to the estate because they don't give a shit about the safety of people who live on our road.
Or you have to make compromises on matters of mutual interest and get involved in democratic decision making processes so that you can lobby for your interests.
I know Leavers are triggered by analogies but it is like a grumpy teenager causing chaos as everyone accommodates their feelings. But they never bother putting a shift in on day to day boring stuff that matters to keep your house going.

toad? road

The thing I never get is why the ERG/empire bunch don't like having a bit of a joint say over German environment and employment practices.

Westminster controls education, NHS,administrative law, commercial law, constitutional law ,Construction law, Contract law ,Corporation law ,Some Employment law ,Family law including marriage, divorce, adoption, finances,Film and entertainment law, Insolvency litigation, banking and debt recovery ,Law of succession, wills and estates, Law of torts , compensation for wrongful acts e.g. negligence, nuisance, defamation, trespass ,personal injury and medical negligence law ,Property law, Planning ,Sports law and Post Taxation income tax inheritance tax etc. We manage domestic violence guardianship ,emergency protection, divorce property, spousal maintenance, adoption, mental capacity, probate, elderly care, benefits,housing ,pensions, policing, crime, defence , fiscal policy, electoral policy etc.etc.
Also Westminster dictates laws over drug crimes, public nuisance , conspiracy, traffic and driving offences, theft, misconduct in public office, perjury, abuse of authority, subpoenas, jury stuff, misappropriation of funds, bribes, dereliction of duty, perverting the course of justice, fraud, murder, manslaughter, common assault, battery, robbery, rape, kidnapping ,abduction, arson, burglary, trespass, forgery, certain libel, espionage
contempt of court, escape from lawful custody, breach of prison, rescuing a prisoner in custody, riot, piracy
unlawful assembly, breach of the peace, public decency, running a disorderly house, housebreaking,Theft, threats with intent to extort money or property, arson.

In this context - I still don’t see why shared environment, social policy etc is such a big deal in return for unrestricted access to trillions worth of trade.

It actually could be a way forward I agree there.
I'd be wondering though, who decides when those "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties" have arisen? Not the nation state, I'll bet.

This isn't the HoC

Posters aren't required to go into deep detail about each EU power, to justify the areas where they want more imtegration or less

The EU will develop further and integrate further
Leavers could demand we address each possible area of future integration, each current problem area and demand answers
I cba to answer such questions either

These kind of persistent questions digging down are often just a way of trying to close down posters whose views someone else disagrees with

Those who post something untrue should expect a rebuttal, but I don't find louise's wishes any more nebulous than most other posters.

If we lost the EU rules we'd only end up enacting US rules.

Quite. It boils down to global rules trading in the 21c.

If we want to take part in the emerging global rules trading system, the notion of complete control over our own borders and laws is becoming obsolete. Countries are collaborating and aligning on laws and policies to allow greater freedom for trade and in some cases for their citizens.

If we ditched the EU - any trade deal struck with the US + Canada, would allow their authorities and corporations input into our consumer and environmental regulations, and the ability to sue our government if we pass legislation that affects their profits. That is not specific to those two countries, it's a feature of globalised trade deals such as NAFTA, TTIP.

The thing I never get is why the ERG/empire bunch don't like having a bit of a joint say over German environment and employment practices.

If you want to remove the brakes from your own car, why on earth would you waste a nanoseconds thought on the brakes in your competitors car ?

louise It actually is the nation itself which decides on Article 112
Lichtenstein did so and has kept this activated for many years now, without objections from other counties

However, it is for EFTA members, not EU

"I'd be wondering though, who decides when those "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties" have arisen? Not the nation state, I'll bet."

Maybe you need to spend some time looking at how law making works in the EU instead of believing the ERG hype.

Lots of "toad" related puns incoming I hope songs maybe?
"This is the Toad to Hell"

fwiw, with workers in such demand in several EU countries, we might even in the next few years - if we remained - negotiate something like article 112 for the EU too

With the demographic crisis in much of the West, several other EU countries would be quite happy not to be competing so much with the UK for workers, especially the young & fit.

And of course happy too if Uk business suffers the commercial disadvantage when they can't employ workers so freely.

@LouiseCollins28
Toad to Nowhere, maybe

Jealous of @bellinisurge having a personal toad. 🐸

These kind of persistent questions digging down are often just a way of trying to close down posters whose views someone else disagrees with

Not convinced that questions shut down conversations. Nor is it for you to determine which questions from DG or me are permissible.

The notion of sovereignty and taking back control is commonly put about by Leavers. Which precise powers and policies would better off determined by Westminster alone is a perfectly sensible query.