Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

The Labour Party is basically as split as the Tories - the precise fault lines are becoming clearer.

Having accidentally listened to John Humphreys this morning being an arse the question of whether Cameron got something 'from' the EU prior to his referendum idea came up in conversation.
I thought he had actually got 2/3 or even 3/4 of what he wanted from the UK but the ERG and others claimed it wasn't good enough hence the 'referendum' plan was started.
Can anyone confirm he had got some concessions from the EU please. Don't want a long explanation just a sentence will do as I think he did get things.
Ta!

Having accidentally listened to John Humphreys this morning

I'm so sorry. It really is the intellectual equivalent of stepping in a really squishy dog turd. Takes a long time to clean out.

Haven't listened to R4 live since December 2017.

Here's the BBCs write up of what Cameron asked for and what he got back in 2016

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105

{Having accidentally listened to John Humphreys this morning}
I was getting a lift from a friend and it was on longwave in the car for the cricket later on, rather than a conscious effort to listen.

He did indeed get some "concessions" from the EU if you want to put it like that. Unfortunately however, control over how those changes were to be implemented remained firmly with the EU, so lots of them were essentially worthless.

My own assessment would be that he got a commitment on "ever closer union" exemption but nothing usable on "sovereignty" ; nothing usable on "migration and benefits"; nothing usable on "economic governance"; and something credible on "competitiveness" but with no real teeth to match the waffle.

I think Camerons problem was he would also have been forced to accept - at least in principle - that the UK would not be at the core of and EU wanting to progress further. Which highlighted the schizophrenia in the Tory party about the EU, even then.

We don't want to be in the EU, but if we do, we want to be in charge

Makes me think of how there always had to be a political appointment in everything Soviet Russia did.

Incidentally, Cameron threw a lot of 18-25 year olds under a bus on housing benefits in order to curtail benefits to EU citizens.

Just in case anyone forgot.

Migration and benefits had 'unused' powers available anyway but all that is just steam from the dungheap now.
Thanks.

nothing usable on "sovereignty”

What would ‘something usable’ on sovereignty mean to you? You may recall the Tories stated in the Brexit white paper that we ‘remained sovereign throughout our membership of the EU’.. contradicting one of the key arguments of Leave.

Cameron secured exemption from ever closer union. And the red card mechanism.

The 3 years since the U.K. started the process of ‘taking back control’ - has produced political clusterfuckery on an unprecedented scale.

Really missing Emma Barnett on fivelive today. Adrian Chiles just gave Suella Braverman a really easy ride. Not challenging any of the they need us more than we need them rhetoric and no deal will be fine. The words brexit cult kept coming up on "your call".

Why has migration popped up again.For anyone debating... the net benefits of EU migration are here. net|benefit|details|here

We all know that reducing EU migration increases pressure on government debt. I am always surprised that Leavers don't make their best point, which is that the current loss of EU staff from the NHS is good from one perspective. This is because the loss of staff leads to shrinking services whichultimately reduces expenditure on healthcare. However I guess evidencing the shift towards an inevitable US style health system is an unattractive argument to run, at least openly. The ERG and Brexit Party lot will all acknowledge that benefit in private I bet.

As an aside I bumped into a friend this morning who had recently been on holiday with her DH at a hotel in Italy where there were were a lot of Germans staying too, and of course they got talking about the inevitable. She said without exception the German holiday makers were all entirely bemused. She said the friends they made said stuff like obviously its up to the UK what it does, but why on earth do that- why damage your trade like that. She said everyone was the same, just sort of mystified and nonplussed.

What would ‘something usable’ on sovereignty mean to you?

It would mean we could ignore the rules we didn't like.

Why ?

Because (we're British, donchaknow ?)

It's an extension of the CFery we read about daily on these forums. People who have a reason why this particular rule doesn't apply to them. Cheered on by accomplice morons who chant "keep your nose out" ...

@tTatianaLarina
Something "useable" on sovereignty for me means something like a time bound plan on how the EU will give up some of the powers it has accrued and return them to national parliaments, ASAP.

Something "useable" on sovereignty for me means something like a time bound plan on how the EU will give up some of the powers it has accrued and return them to national parliaments, ASAP.

What powers ?

The list of "shared competence" areas where when the EU decides to regulate, a member state cannot is below.

1. Shared competence between the Union and the Member

States applies in the following principal areas:

(a) internal market;
(b) social policy, for the aspects defined in this Treaty;
(c) economic, social and territorial cohesion;
(d) agriculture and fisheries, excluding the conservation
of marine biological resources;
(e) environment;
(f) consumer protection;
(g) transport;
(h) trans-European networks;
(i) energy;
(j) area of freedom, security and justice;
(k) common safety concerns in public health matters,
for the aspects defined in this Treaty.

energy policy, freedom security and justice, social policy and agriculture and fisheries would seem to be areas where it would be beneficial for the EU to return its powers to national parliaments, so lets start with those.

Just had a phone call from itv ! Friend and I applied to watch question time live in Bolton. Unfortunately it was postponed and we thought that was the end of that.
Now been invited to watch Boris v Jeremy at media city in Salford. Not sure whether we will get to ask questions but surely worth going just for the entertainment ?

Now been invited to watch Boris v Jeremy at media city in Salford. Not sure whether we will get to ask questions but surely worth going just for the entertainment ?

Will it happen ? Boris has gone shy of late ....

Apparently it’s the only one he’ll participate in, fingers crossed anyway. Not a partisan audience either as we’ve clearly stated when applying for qt that we were remain voting former labour voters !

Caucasianchalkcircles Oh yes you should go if only for the entertainment.

If you get to ask a question maybe you could ask Boris if he has to work hard at being a tit or if it comes naturally.

LouiseCollins28
While that is an impressive list there is of course a major snag in that unless something really radical happens the UK, EU and everybody else are on the same large rock in space so a fair few on the list have finite resources and boundaries to what the UK can actually do on it's own. Being out of the EU will not make more fish magically appear.
Energy, the same constraints as Europe to a greater degree.
Environment, I believe the UK was close to the front on that anyway, but being such a small island it will make relatively little difference on a global scale. HOWEVER, innovation and new developments by UK and EU engineers and a common goal (like being in a large citizen and trading bloc for example where there are many working on the same goal) would be a significant advantage.
The UK hitching it's fortunes to the USA where many standards are considerably lower will not be much of a help.

@LouiseCollins28 what about the clusterfuck of the last 3 years and decade of austerity precluding it, has given you the confidence that our govt would be better at ANY of those listed without the extra funding, support, exchange of ideas and academia than on it's own? You have seen the pesticide law thrown out already, I assume?

I'd like to ask them about the EU laws that are being rolled back and what they intend to do about them considering shady characters stand to profit.

louise The problem with those requests is that the other EU members don't want them !

Policies / laws tend to be connected, a netword enabling other things you probably do want

Social policy:
That's to provide minimum levels of rights for workers - maternity, agency workers, posted workers, holiday, maximum hours

It also provides a reasonably level playing field, so that countries don't try to attract business by a race to the bottom - as the ERG propose - reeducing workers' rights

Energy policy:
Is tied in quite a bit with climate change poliies

Also energy security: the EU has a system to supply e.g. electricity to EEA members first, if there are power shortages

• the UK pushed hard for this but is now indignant that the UK will have lower priority

security & justice
The UK uses the European arrest warrant too and the police and security forces saay it is essential to keep this
and to keep the current level of cooperation

That then requires common data protection laws, so other countries are willing to cooperate with those who would otherwise approve more intrusive powers

agriculture & fisheries
For frictionless trade, we need common standards of food safety - including chemicals etc used on crops and meat animals, alseo common ethics

Also, these are areas where members can clash, which can escalate;
a common policy avoids more powerful countries imposing their rules on much smaller ones

I'd say 2 things to the flurry of responders, thanks all.

First, the important bit for me isn't that rules we'd set for ourselves would be better or worse, it is that they'd be rules we set, and we can change.

Second, I agree Bigchoc, if others don't want to make those changes (and you may well be right that they don't) then we're better off leaving.