Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

Interesting post from a Leaver on the Tory boards.

Seems a reasonable, genuine person who thinks the same of Remainers as we think of Leavers...

I'm looking forward to engaging with them tomorrow on some facts!

If they have got this far into the brexit process and still believe that the 'facts' are on their side, and that the actual statistics (some from our own government) are either none existent or doom mongering - can they really be described as 'reasonable'?

They are not going to listen to your facts mojo - only bother to engage if your head is feeling up to bashing itself against the wall.

I'm looking forward to engaging with them tomorrow on some facts!

Indeed! That's badly needed.

And to start with: the Catalan region is not a member state!
How would she like it if the EU gave formal support to Scotland leaving the UK after a referendum that wasn't allowed by Westminster? I have no opinion about Catalonia being better off independent or not but leavers can't complain about the EU impacting sovereignty and also complain because it respects it!

I wouldn't bother, mojo. They're being disingenuously goady, I think.

{There does seem to be an overlap between extreme left and right - both seem to be very authoritarian, both seem to end up with elites that feather their own nest}

I imagine the political spectrum as the perimeter of a circle where as you go more extreme in either direction you meet up on the opposite position on the circle.

Mojo

You could, but your day would be more pleasantly spent doing absolutely anything else, and they neither listen, understand or care.

I love that some Leaver knobhead thinks that Catalonia is a state and a member of the EU.
I wonder if their concern extends to respecting the wishes of NI. Which voted Remain.

I think it is still worth engaging Mojo because it's not just the poster who reads it but there may be a wavering lurker who starts to have doubts.

But you need to address the feelings rather than just locking horns. Flowerpower (?) used to be really good at this so you try and find the things you can agree with or validate say something like " in a way I admire people who think Y" . I can't remember exactly what she advised but it was really good, you also don't go on to say But what about this..

I'll try and find a previous post on how to approach it. I'm really bad at it as I just want to bombard with facts...

It's Flowerplower, lonely. 😁

It was probably about 20 or so threads ago now that she posted as it was while I was recovering from surgery in March / April.

Thanks fluffy I found the thread..
the posts are on the Westminstenders: Compromise is a difficult word thread
Westminstenders~Compromise~is~a~difficult~word

Flowerpower said..
“Tangentially related - my work involves persuading and influencing people to come around to my way of thinking and I've had to take a number of training courses on how to do this. Some of the techniques I learned include making sure the person you are speaking with feels really listened to when they express their concerns, never telling them they're wrong or making them feel stupid, and asking them leading questions instead of arguing them into submission. I've used these techniques to persuade three leavers I know to switch to remain. Ok it isn't many but it's a start! I am thinking there will be plenty of leavers out there who are just desperate for an opportunity to switch sides that would enable them to save face and not have to admit they're wrong. If we can talk to them and gently nudge them in that direction, maybe we can make a difference? But the number one thing we on the remain side have to do is stop telling leavers they're stupid because that w/o just cause them to dig their heels in further.”

“You definitely can't persuade everyone...! Only those who are already a little on the fence I think. And for those on the fence you could try (if you can stand it, and it has to be sincere!) giving them a way out like, "I kind of admire people who voted leave in 2016 because I think it showed courage and a belief in your country and what it can do. Do you think now we've seen what the idiots in Westminster are really like that they can deliver your vision?" In my training we were told not to use the word "but" because everyone knows we only mean the part after the "but". Then ask them what they think of some of the quotes Led by Donkeys are putting on billboards. I think it takes several conversations, not just one.”

Regarding the photograph of our future prime minister and his current adulterous partner ( he is not yet divorced so shouldn't be cohabiting at number 10 in my old fashioned opinion!) .. I have the following observations:

1. Both their hair looks longer in the photo than it is now.

1. It does look May/June time though as the hedge at the back looks to have a flowering dog rose which were coming out a couple of weeks ago?

1. There appear to be some black ribbons hanging down from the top of the picture near the middle? Slightly odd bunting?

1. Someone took it!

It may not be a dog rose - it could just be the light. Don't know what the ribbon is but that and the background could help identify the location.

Sorry I now think the ribbon is not hanging down but is a tree trunk. Don't think I'd be a very good detective!

Just listening to Raab on the way home from the school run. What a fucking twat! It will all be the EU's fault, apparently. Jesus!

Maybe Boris is up North with us. Dog roses still out here. He's another twat. What self respecting woman stares lovingly into the eyes of a man who spilled red wine on her stuff over the weekend.

Somewhere there was a poster with a whole list of what the EU did for us. I am going out soon, so don't know if I can find if I filed a copy. I think a google search on 'what has the EU done for us' should bring up the lists.

Off the top of my head - allowed frictionless trade across borders.
Eliminate mobile roaming charges (although May claimed the credit for that one.)
The biggy - helped to bring peace in NI via the GFA. Now the Leavers will say that it doesn't mention the EU - it does in the introduction, if you read it, and if it were not so, why would there be all this discussion about 'backstops' and not having a border in Ireland or in the Sea?
Erasmus, Euratom - originally part of a completely separate treaty predating the EU by a long way. Yes, Yes, we could have a body which replicates its functions, but we closed it down, and haven't got round to starting it up again.
Clean beaches.
Fishing - quotas to prevent the depletion of fish stocks - UK Govt chose to implement legislation which sold the quotas to the Dutch. The sort of fish we catch is preferred by Spain and Portugal, so ease of export to them.
And on and on.

If they have got this far into the brexit process and still believe that the 'facts' are on their side, and that the actual statistics (some from our own government) are either none existent or doom mongering - can they really be described as 'reasonable!?

The poster did say "Catalan Region"

As much as i want to stay in the EU, one cannot escape the fact that 300k people coming to the UK each year is unsustainable, those people have cars, children, need school places, GP appointments etc etc
I struggle with FOM, it's not a reason to leave however but it is something that needs to change, there needs to be limits that countries overly affected can trigger.

Of course if leaving the EU just results in more people from around the world coming and working in the EU (as is happening now) then brexit is a massive own goal.

Robert Peston @peston

For the first time a significant split emerged at shadow cabinet beteeen @jeremycorbyn and @johnmcdonnellMP I am told. The shadow chancellor, revealing his disappointment at Corbyn’s delay in any move to back referendum-and-remain said “I don’t want another summer [of...

internal battles] like last year and year before]. I don’t want another leadership election”. Wow. Corbyn, Milne and McCluskey are now a united front in wanting to frustrate Labour moving to remaining in EU and against McDonnell, Abbott, Starmer, Burgon, Thornberry, Watson.

Yes, the poster did say Catalan region (I used to live there btw) as if the age old conflict and strong nationalist feelings vs Spanish unity are somehow the EU's fault. I suppose they blame the NI conflict on the EU too.

Some more benefits:
EHIC
If you take your car to Spain via France - not needing two different international driving permits. Not needing a Green card for insurance.
One for the retirees on the Costas - having your State pension uprated as though you were still in the UK. Don't assume that this would still continue. Being able to have treatment via the Spanish health system with the UK reimbursing the costs.

As much as i want to stay in the EU, one cannot escape the fact that 300k people coming to the UK each year is unsustainable, those people have cars, children, need school places, GP appointments etc etc

I haven't got time to unpick this one, but you are more likely to get a GP appointment, than not. My own practice, which nearly closed because of GP shortages is reliant on EU staff. Training UK Drs to make up the shortfall is going to take the better part of ten years.

Most of the places voting leave have little immigration.

Here's s good reminder of 101 positive EU things..

www.facebook.com/standup2brexit/videos/407900333278934?s=560285438&v=e&sfns=xmo

Peregrina here’s another list of ten things the EU has done:

www.france24.com/en/20190419-eu-policies-internet-food-internet-privacy-parliament-commission?ref=fb

Significant tweet from Peston ^^

Tallies with this report in the Guardian this morning:

Jeremy Corbyn wants to back a second EU referendum but some of his inner circle seem to want Brexit to be carried out no matter what, Labour’s Margaret Beckett has said.

Beckett, a former foreign secretary who is campaigning for a second referendum, said she thought the Labour leader was open to the idea but some of his closest advisers were preventing him from budging and would be prepared to allow a no-deal Brexit.

“I don’t get the impression that Jeremy himself is the stumbling block,” she told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “There are people very close with great influence on him who are passionately opposed to it … and he wants to keep the party together as much as possible.

“Unfortunately, it’s looking more and more that some of the people who he wants to accept the majority view are not just expressing reservations but completely oppose, and I’m beginning to think some of them do actually want Britain to leave no matter what and they don’t give a toss.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/26/corbyn-aides-want-brexit-no-matter-what-says-margaret-beckett