Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

clavinova

Re RNorth - he posts daily. ( unl ss you are referring to one particular entry)

The UK govt had no feasible proposals to contribute during negotiations,
probably because the Tory party could never agree among itself
and because they are woefully ignorant about international trade and law.

May kept asking Merkel "make me an offer"

because noone on the UK side could advise her what would work
(Ivan Rogers could, but he was forced out for speaking truth to power)

Therefore, the EU did all the work and actually wrote the draft WA, while
e.g. David Davis only attended meetings every 6 months
and Raab didn't even realise that Dover was essential for our food supplies.

Certainly the EU were not sitting on their hands
The Uk were

waiting for a credible workable proposition

There isn't a "credible workable proposition" apart from the WA, so I rather doubt anyone in the EU is waiting for one. They are serious people who know how to deal with time wasters.

I honestly don't know why we bother giving serious responses to people who believe this 12-15 month business, they are either dishonest or clueless.

Anyway you have 120 days, not 15 months.

The Home Office Unit set up to tackle the border issue - which actually does have experts from all fields , not just Karlsson's Customs

I suppose the new PM could always sack them

https://news.sky.com/story/technological-solution-to-irish-border-issue-could-be-a-decade-away-says-home-office-document-11696337

A presentation drawn up by the Home Secretary's Policy Unit and sent to HMRC and the Treasury implies that they think a technological solution

• which would aim to keep the Irish border entirely open and without physical checkpoints -

is a distant (and likely very expensive) prospect.

The authors state that the technology would likely not be ready to be deployed in the UK until 2030.

A technological solution to the Irish border quagmire has been much trumpeted by Brexiteers for months, if not years.

So much has happened in the past 3 years it will take decades to percolate through. Especially since the rest of the world doesn't really give a shit about Brexit until it happens.

At which point we might have a nasty shock as we discover that countries aren't really prepared to put a lot of work into any deals with the UK, since they have no guarantee the UK won't strop at the end and piss away a lot of hard work.

Remember the UK negotiated the WA - and even got as far as having it's demands incorporated. Just to have it rejected.

"- if the EU and the Irish government are going to sit on their hands and do absolutely nothing to help solve the border problem then I'll have to endorse the 'no-deal' scenario - perhaps they might decide to take an interest when we've left the EU."
They have come up with something. ERG rejected it as not Brexit-y enough. You are just following the ERG playbook.
This is the UK's fault. Border in the sea. NI as special economic zone. Would solve this.

My understanding (slightly tongue in cheek) is:
One Nation Tories are traditionalist, patriarchal, economically liberal, socially conservative and believe in the Deserving Poor.
Blairite/centrist Labour are modernisers, technocratic, economically and socially liberal and believe that all are deserving, rich and poor alike.
Lib Dems are modernisers, technocrats, economically and socially liberal, environmentally aware and all kinds of woke. They believe that anyone who agrees with them is deserving, those who don't, not so much.

The authors state that the technology would likely not be ready to be deployed in the UK until 2030.

joining the ranks of nuclear fusion, a cure for cancer, and bases on the moon ....

{"mobile inspection units with associated technology"}
And who is going to defend these against the likes of the IRA when they will be visiting small companies in Derry/Londonderry?
The suggestion in that 'report' about 'special zones' for smaller businesses, alluding to the fact it is a dogs dinner.

Governments and 'computer systems' are a permanent joke worldwide, and much of this proposal for the NI border would depend on extra special systems.

@1tisILeClerc you know that observation about the IRA will just get Brexit-y catsbumface reactions about giving in to terrorists. Which are easy reactions to have if you live in Sussex or wherever.

"I’m enjoying Johnson’s car crash of a campaign, but I hope he doesn’t do so much damage that he fails to get elected. If he doesn’t become PM, I think Brexit will go ahead; if he does become PM, I’m reasonably confident that it won’t".* @damocrat on twitter.*

My view too.

" you have 120 days, not 15 months."

Also, those 120 days include the long summer recess and the conference recess, so the HoC is not aftually sitting on many of those 120.

As misti reminds us - but unfortunately BJ was still talking of an "implementation period" after No Deal 🤦🏻‍♀️

Liddington tried to correct him, but many Brexiters make the same mistake

David Lidington@DLidington

Erm, the Implementation Period is actually part of the Withdrawal Agreement.
It's in Part 4 of the Agreement, articles 126 to 132.

No Deal exit = no Withdrawal Agreement = no Implementation Period.

Clavinova

It’s an interesting report that was presented by the Alternative Arrangements bunch yesterday - because it essentially advocates reinventing the single market to solve border checks for Ireland/NI - so it requires a deal of some sort (not No Deal).

NI goods would need to be in conformity with EU standards and testing - and which legal framework will be used? CJEU oversight? And what happens if rUK wants to diverge on standards eg on agricultural goods (ie with a US trade deal).

Plus using Rotterdam as an example of checks being done 40km from the border doesn’t fly, as all checks in Rotterdam are still done within the confines of the port (yes it is that big).

Then you're left with trusted trader schemes for customs, which leaves it open to smuggling.

And it’s going to rely on a lot of North - South cooperation to operate.

Governments and 'computer systems' are a permanent joke worldwide,

Actually in the EU many states do government IT quite competently. The French for a start and I dare say Germany too.

Obviously the U.K. govt has a poor history of big IT projects which makes the "alternative arrangements" even more preposterous, but the point is that even governments who can run IT projects think this is a non-starter.

@1tisILeClerc you know that observation about the IRA will just get Brexit-y catsbumface reactions about giving in to terrorists.

Isn't part of the narrative about "having" to deliver Brexit is the danger of a gammon uprising ? If that isn't giving in to terrorists, what is ?

Oh well - if the EU and the Irish government are going to sit on their hands and do absolutely nothing to help solve the border problem then I'll have to endorse the 'no-deal' scenario - perhaps they might decide to take an interest when we've left the EU.

The UK is the one which wants to leave and has been belligerent about it. The rest of the EU is big enough to say, go on then, you are welcome to your precious trade deals with the USA, which really seems to be all you want. Certainly there will be some EU firms which currently trade with the UK , who would suffer in the short term. I would be very surprised if they are not already in the process of identifying new markets for their goods.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-islamophobia-sharia-law-poll-conservative-party-members-leadership-a8971731.html
Depressing, although not surprising, stuff from a YouGov poll of Conservative party members.

Arlene is on the list of people involved in that Alternative arrangements bunch, along with The Mogg and a string of others.
It makes you (me) wonder if they are all dedicated to the cause or just 'OK to have their names on a list to make it look good'. It is politics not reality that they are playing.
It is some technology that can identify growth hormones in a cow traveling at 40MPH (in a truck), although I believe that some, probably with illegal substances can jump very high, over the moon in fact.

Yes many countries do make computer systems work, maybe they are better at specifying them at the outset?

I’m enjoying Johnson’s car crash of a campaign, but I hope he doesn’t do so much damage that he fails to get elected. If he doesn’t become PM, I think Brexit will go ahead; if he does become PM, I’m reasonably confident that it won’t". @damocrat on twitter

I’m with you Misti I’m actively hoping Johnson wins it now. If it was a general election he’d have blown it completely. But who knows how the Tory members brains work.

Also will Johnson have the staying power to ride out the next 4 weeks. Surely he can’t keep this level of incompetence up without doing himself an injury (physical, mental or otherwise)

BigChocFrenzy
A technological solution to the Irish border quagmire has been much trumpeted by Brexiteers for months, if not years.

Your Sky link doesn't state how old the leaked report is.
From your link;

Home Secretary Sajid Javid, likely with this report in mind, said in February:"In terms of an alternative arrangements it can be done.

"In my own department I've got Border Force.I asked Border Force months ago to advise me what alternative arrangements are possible and they've shown me quite clearly that you can have no hard border on the island of Ireland and you can use existing technology the only thing missing is a bit of goodwill."

ContinuityError
And it’s going to rely on a lot of North - South cooperation to operate.

Indeed.

Javid is talking bollocks and ignoring his own experts

That proposal pushed by Brexiters is hardly neutral and uses ideas that have previously been debunked as impractical in the near future
It won't change the Home Office Unit report

That proposal requires Ireland to accept uk version standards, which amounts to a partial Irexit
Never be agreed

It also does require some internal NI checks, as I posted above

Several of us have experience of how long it takes to develop complex new systems from scratch and it isn't w0 months, especially not for the first system in the world

I repeat:
If Brexiters are so sure this can replace the backstop, then accept the backstop WA conditions: that the backstop can be replaced when the tech has actually been implemented

The ERG refuse to do this, because they know this idea will take decades, if it is ever possibly

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/25/no-deal-brexit-cost-uk-car-manufacturing-extra-70m-day

The cost of car manufacturing will go up £70m a day if the UK leaves the EU without a deal,
making the British automotive industry more vulnerable to closures, the industry has said.

It also warned for the second time this year that car prices will go up by an average of £1,500.

“Leaving the EU without a deal would trigger the most seismic shift in trading conditions ever experienced by automotive,
with billions of pounds of tariffs threatening to impact consumer choice and affordability,”
said the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) at an industry conference in London.

“The end to borderless trade could bring crippling disruptions to the industry’s just-in-time operating model.

Delays to shipments of parts to production plants are measured in minutes,
with every 60 seconds costing £50,000 in gross value added"

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox rubbishes Boris Johnson's Brexit plan

news.sky.com/story/international-trade-secretary-liam-fox-rubbishes-boris-johnsons-brexit-plan-11747550

The cabinet minister pours cold water on the would-be PM's claim that the UK could escape EU tariffs after a no-deal Brexit.

A leading cabinet Brexiteer has led criticism of Boris Johnson's strategy for leaving the EU.

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox dismissed Mr Johnson's claim that issues such as the Irish border could be negotiated with the EU during a Brexit implementation period.

Clavinova
This 'alternative technology' is a dead duck.
IF a suitable system was available that covers all the requirements (which haven't yet been fully defined) and it was demonstrated working fully, AND all the hardware was sitting on shelves ready for deployment 6 months ago, there might have been a chance for the end of a transition period, NOT October 31st. Specifying, building, and thorough testing of any system will take years even without having to rely on 'good cooperation'.