Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

The EU have talked of ways of making the NI backstop less noticeable if activated.

In what way? So their cunning plan is to trap us in the backstop but make it less noticeable??

Why are we still talking about smart borders?

Because there was a new report out yesterday;
www.governmenteuropa.eu/alternative-arrangements-for-the-irish-border/93734/

"Why are the EU peddling the myth that the Irish border issue can be resolved within the 21 month transition period - surely they are contributing to the unicorns?"

Nonsense attempts to deflect from obvious flaws in BeLeaver position.

bellinisurge
Nonsense attempts to deflect from obvious flaws in BeLeaver position

It's a genuine question. Why do the EU believe that the Irish border problem can be resolved within the 21 month transition period?

because there was a new report out yesterday

Even if we take this at face value - which I suggest we might not, given the vacuous marketing guff on that page ("The report ... described by prime ministerial hopeful Boris Johnson this morning as ‘brilliant’" - do these idiots genuinely think this is how serious people write about complex issues?) - I would observe that:

• you have 4 months. 120 days, give or take. And you're still producing marketing documents? LMAO
• the EU is not going to agree to any of this, and nor for that matter is Ireland

clavinova I think Karlsson is the person who said NI could be solved within the transition period, not the ru< as you thought

He is selling a system that he wants to sell to the wider WTO too and it hasn't been developed yet
Parts of this system are outside his areas of expertise, which is concerning

From experience of large projects, I simply don't believe it is possible to develop, test, debug and implemented in 20 months a system which does not exist anywhere in the world
More like 10+ years, if ever,
even if it can actually cope with determining if meat inside a lorry somewhere along a 500km order is to US or EU standards

However, the WA states that if alternative tech can be developed, tested and implemented, verified by independent arbitration panel, then the backstop will no longer be needed

If Brexiters / the ERG are so sure this system will work,
then they only need to sign up to this arrangement,
that the backstop stays until independent experts - not the guy selling his work - verify it has been installed and actually works

Why do the EU believe that the Irish border problem can be resolved within the 21 month transition period?

What's your evidence that they believe this? The onus is on the British to solve it, if they don't want a backstop or to remain in the SM.

No serious person thinks that the Irish border problem can be solved quickly unless NI remains de facto in the single market and customs union.

From that fantasy piece:
{We believe the Trusted Trader recommendations in this paper can be delivered in 12-15 months. Some longer term technological proposals which are not necessary to making the seamless border work immediately might take longer, but it is essential that work on them starts now.’}

The whole system has to be specified, purchased, installed and integrated into both customs and security databases within 4 months.
It takes a local 'trusted trader a couple of months to come and repair a leaking tap, never mind a multi agency system that can track, scan and verify all vehicles over a 350 mile border.

Can I ask another random question that's slightly on a tangent?

What, in practice, is the difference between 'One Nation' Tory, social democratic/Blairite Labour and the Lib Dem's?

It seems to me that a One Nation Tory and Social Democrat/Blairite Labour have more in common with each other than with the rest of their own party?

If this is too much of a tangent do let me know and I'll start a thread....but as I'm working my way through understanding our politics you lot are the most knowledgeable people I know...

There was a thread earlier about 'rescuing a stainless steel pan'. I got interested because I thought it might have been captured by the Taliban.
Most disappointed to see that it was some pasta had been burned in it.
Maybe Clavinova could research this sort of material?

Haven't read your posts yet, but here is a link to The Alternative Arrangements Commission - co-chaired by Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP and Rt Hon Greg Hands MP.

www.prosperity-uk.com/aacabout/

Twenty three members on the technical panel - including

Lars Karlsson and several other international customs experts.

I haven't read the last link either, but since the whole panel is stuffed full of ERG types who witter about technology they don't have the first clue about, I am not going to bother either.

The calibre of some has to be called into question; some months ago I heard Suella Braverman babble on Any Questions about unelected MPs. If she herself isn't mindful of the fact that she's holding an elective office, I just wonder what other tosh she believed. Sadly no one challenged her rubbish - except us at home listening.

We believe the Trusted Trader recommendations

For some reason I immediately thought of the other chocolate teapots "Checkatrade" and "RatedPeople". Although I suspect the latter is declining as the "ratings" being received weren't quite what was envisaged.

What, in practice, is the difference between 'One Nation' Tory, social democratic/Blairite Labour and the Lib Dem's?

I think it only seems like that because both parties have moved so far right/left.

There was certainly clear blue water between Major and Blair, especially with regards to social policy and the distribution of wealth. I suspect many people on this thread are too young to really remember how bad the NHS got under Thatcherism for example (in 1996 I was refused a place on a waiting list for surgery after a serious accident, because the hospital could only operate an 18 month waiting list and it was already full; I had to pay for it myself or lose my job).

The difference between the LibDems and Labour is not necessarily a right-left one but to do with the role of the state. That said they (the LDs) have moved to a more standard European social democrat type position in recent years. They are probably the inheritors of Blairism in that respect.

@Clavinova Genuine answer - they don't. But some BeLeavers are desperate to pretend that this is a problem of the EU's making .

Reading that report, it basically requires that Ireland ditch EU standards and accept UK ones,
as determined by the UK

It brings back the ridiculous MaxFac proposal of "deemed equivalence" which the EU will never accept - it would wreck the SM

It would mean rEU would have to check goods from Ireland, in effect a partial Irexit

Since we discussed RNorth, here is his demolishing today of this report, from the pov of a pretty fanatical Leaver:

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87278

"If we then look at this report .... we see that Singham et al set out their stall in such a way as to preserve the right to regulatory divergence in the future,

relying either on "deemed equivalence" or mutual recognition to allow "as near as possible frictionless trade between the UK (including NI) and the rest of the EU including IE".

This is absolutely classic Singham moonshine,
but clothed in dense verbiage which conceals what would otherwise be a very obvious lack of understanding of how the EU Single Market works.

Recognising that, despite all their best efforts, some border checks would be necessary,
the Singham "team" postulate that "mobile inspection units with associated technology" could be provided
"to manage and perform inspections of goods and customs documentation at locations away from the border"

And this would be supported by "intelligence-led market surveillance through the use of advanced analytics".

To all intents and purposes, this is MaxFac in taffeta, a scheme which
– even if the EU could be prevailed upon to accept –
could not, according to a leaked Home Office memoo*, be in place before 2030. "

We believe the Trusted Trader recommendations in this paper can be delivered in 12-15 months

If you're modelling it in a spreadsheet, sure. Out in the real world - you're having a laugh.

These people are not serious. They are either incompetent or liars, not to put too find a point on it - any professional with experience of infrastructure projects knows that 12-15 months is just silly.

But they know that gullible people with no professional experience will swallow it.

Mistigri
What's your evidence that they believe this?The onus is on the British to solve it, if they don't want a backstop or to remain in the SM.

Oh well - if the EU and the Irish government are going to sit on their hands and do absolutely nothing to help solve the border problem then I'll have to endorse the 'no-deal' scenario - perhaps they might decide to take an interest when we've left the EU.

Sainsburys "SmartScan" system only works 60% of the time. And it's in a controlled environment. Not quite sure where this 100% effective mobile technology is going to come from. Especially since it's probably not going to be allowed to use Huawei kit ....

As in the WA, if this proposal can ever be implemented and verified independently, then it would replace the backstop.

However, the EU will NOT drop the backstop in advance just because someone has proposed tech that does not exist anywhere in the world

So, no change

Thanks Misti

I think it only seems like that because both parties have moved so far right/left.

That makes sense. On the Tory closed Facebook groups at the moment it seems (despite my first impressions) that around 80% are really fairly far to the right.

Then there are 20% or so that are more centre-right and I have to wonder how long they'll stick around in the face of the kind of things their own party members believe. Based on this I can see all of the Tory MPs who are euro sceptics being de-selected and the party moving to be UKIP basically. In fact, I would say the 80% of Tory members are actually further to the right than most of their MPs even Johnson and JRM.

They're more Chope / Bill Cash / IDS.

if the EU and the Irish government are going to sit on their hands and do absolutely nothing to help solve the border problem
I thought the EU HAD already done something to solve the problem with the WA. Its not what some peope wanted and its not as good as what the UK has now but they have proposed stuff.

"if the EU and the Irish government are going to sit on their hands and do absolutely nothing to help solve the border problem "

The EU and Ireland have proposed the backstop.
That gives time to develop other measures.

The Uk can and should invest the resources to develop alternative tech and this can be one of the systems considered
It is for the UK to fund, since it is the UK who is leaving.

However, at the moment, this is just one plan pushed by a group of Tory MPs and others with vested interests
As part of govt procurement policy, other groups must also be given the chance to propose and tender their plans.

Some problems take years to solve, if they are indeed solvable
After 45 years of integration with the EU, Brexit only works at all as a long process, not an event

After No Deal, the UK govt will not be sitting on its hands - it will be dealing with an economy in crisis
No Deal would be an act of tremendous self-harm, which would take decades to recover from - JRM's 50 years.

Oh well - if the EU and the Irish government are going to sit on their hands and do absolutely nothing to help solve the border problem then I'll have to endorse the 'no-deal' scenario - perhaps they might decide to take an interest when we've left the EU.

They are not sitting on their hands so much as waiting for a credible workable proposition from the country seeking change - the UK. In much the same way that you'd be a little resistant to suddenly discovering it was your job to design and build your neighbours extension. Especially when it's an extension you opposed from the off.

And we return once again, to where we set off from: a no-deal which doesn't recognise the GFA is going to be a hard sell to the rest of the world that has a vested interest in international treaties being upheld. If that's a problem, Brexiteers should have thought of it before they tried cashing the Brexit cheque.

Brexit is a little like those scams where you receive an invoice for unsolicited goods. No amount of clever wording can make the recipient liable for something they did not contract to. Brexiteers are roaming around Europe waving this piece of paper trying to claim it makes other countries somehow liable for their costs. It doesn't and never will. They can hold their breath all they like. They can't force another country to do what they want. They may have been bought up believing they can. But there's no tooth fairy, and the Days of Empire are long gone. Sadly to a chorus of raspberries rather than respect. But I'm sure Brexiteers won't hear them.

From that Prosperity-UK report:
{We advocate the use of mobile inspection teams to inspect the goods at the location mentioned on the transit or other customs declaration. In this way customs formalities do not have to take place at a port or border but can be dealt with at any inland location. No physical checks would need to be made at all in the areas covered by the WTO Frontier Traffic Exemption. Physical checks would be very rare in other areas, and would be intelligence led.Smuggling and fraud occur presently at the border and will likely continue in the future. There is significant smuggling at other EU borders (both external and internal) and so the fact that smuggling may exist on the border after Brexit cannot be used by the EU as a reason not to contemplate alternative arrangements. Ultimately smuggling into IE (which is what the EU will be concerned about) can be limited by legislation and market surveillance, neither of which is controversial in IE.First, the UK would have to pass appropriate laws that require administrative formalities to have the benefit of trading across the border. Most important in this respect is that a 0% VAT on exports may only be charged if a correct customs export declaration is filed. Second, the UK has to take care that the IT-systems that have to process the declarations are operational. The migration from CHIEF to CDS is a big concern. Without IT-systems working, trade gets very frustrated. Third, the capacity and enforcement capability of HMRC has to be strengthened. HMRC will have to intensify administrative controls, and also will have to provide operational capacity to perform inland checks. }

So many unicorns, so little time.
How well is the upgrade of HMRC system coming on?