Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

The NI power grid depends on the Irish power grid as far as I know. Does anyone know what arrangements the UK utility companies providing power/water treatment to NI have in place if their contracts stop being valid on 31 October 2019. Presumably the Irish grid won't be giving them power etc for free. Or does it not matter much to Brexiteers if the power consumers aren't in mainland UK?

It almost seems like Johnson is trolling Brexiteers by repeating all their fantasies that if we just believe hard enough, then the EU will cave in and give us all we want. He can’t really believe can he?

bellinisurge - there was a lot of stories about generators being moved back from Afgan etc to provide power in NI if needed. If they would provide enough power is another matter.

Or does it not matter much to Brexiteers if the power consumers aren't in mainland UK? No it concerns them not a jot.

Boris and blethering on about tech solutions to NI border. Straight out of the Trump playbook. Just lie with a straight face and sound convincing and some people will believe you (especially if it what they want to hear). See above group re power in NI.

Sorry Mother that Herald article is really really grinding my gears. No-one I know drinks irn-bru anymore since the Tories ruined it with their sugar tax. Once the original recipe stock piles ran out we all switched to Coke.

Funny poll at the weekend (before you ask I don't think I can track it down). Boris has a net negativity rating of 37% in Scotland. Impressive till you see that Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are on negative 40+. Richard Leonard and Struth were only a few points behind on low 30s.

Nicola is on record as being in favour of the 3rd runway - Herald journos are not noted for their ability to see beyond their own particular MC bubbles.

No-one I know either knew or cared that Hunt was on tour. Very little cut through as far as I can see and minimal support among Scottish Tory MPs.

Come the eventual GE, it’s hard to see how the Tories wouldn’t be obliterated in such circumstances and those ERG

You'd think, but John Redwood in a huge Remain constituency got back in again comfortably. Despite being a nasty piece of work. It's tribal - blue rosette, vote.

Although now there is the choice of turquoise rosette. How many will turn Brexit into TruBluBrexit?

Interesting comment in Sky News: if the 3rd runway goes ahead at Heathrow, then under the government's climate change commitments not. A. Single. Other. Airport. Could. Expand.

I wonder if Nicola/the Scottish Government would still be supporting the 3rd runway if that's the case?

Does anyone understand Hunt's Brexit plan? As far as I can see it is almost exactly the same as Boris' but he is not getting any of the flak / credit.

Of the 2 (given it is one or the other) I prefer Boris. Lots of reasons:

1. He is more to the Centre on economic and social issues
2. He is being more open and honest about the state of Brexit
3. He will crystallise the debate which makes it easier for Labour to stop infighting and unite around a winning GE manifesto.

Most Lexiters who have commented openly (not many) add that as he is more likely to actually deliver Brexit they get what they want plus a Labour Government. Continued limbo is no better for Labour than it is for Tories and better to park any downside with Boris.
Caroline Flint made the case very convincingly on Marr that until Brexit is done Labour can't get heard on anything else. Apparently the Peterborough Labour message was vote Labour because you will get Brexit anyway but will want a Labour MP for everything else.

I used to read the Herald regularly but its journalism is extremely narrow now and often strays into patronising guff.

BJ currently on the Nick Ferrari show on LBC, outlining his strategy to cherry pick the WA

Nick Ferrari also pushed him really hard (to much bluster and that'll be a "Yes" then ) on who supplied the picture to all the papers and when it was taken (ie not at the weekend and actually a few weeks ago due to his longer hair) so it was the BJ team

BJ is definitely going for the Trump plan of lying convincingly with a straight face. Probably believes the lies himself. Alternative facts!
But it has worked for Trump.
I can just see it “ I have successfully renegotiated the WA and have a limit on the back stop. I am the man who delivered Brexit.
“But PM the time limit is 200 years.”
“Exactly a time limited back stop now we can all forget about Brexit and continue saving the NHS ( by selling it)”

It would be VERY unusual - and career-ending - for an MP not to support their govt in an NC vote

Grieve, Lee and a couple of others are likely to be deselected, so they might as well go for it. Kenneth Clarke will stand down at the next election, so he might as well. That's enough but it depends on how many Labour MPs swell the Tory ranks. Hoey,, Field, Flint? Unlikely to be Skinner.

Motheroffourdragons
Even when Laura is telling him there is no technology yet and won't be for a long time, he continues with his nonsense.

Although Lars Karlsson, the former Swedish customs director disagrees with you;

Feb 2019:

"Mr Karlsson, a former senior figure in the World Customs Organisation with almost 35 years of experience in working on customs, said the technologies are “really there” and that avoiding a hard border with the use of technology was “really doable” within international customs law and regulations."

Can Smart Border 2.1 be the answer to the Irish border challenge?

"Yes, I am one hundred percent convinced that this model can solve the border issue not only on the island of Ireland, but also for the huge amounts of goods that passes every hour the English Channel through the Eurotunnel or via the ferries from Dover to Calais."

If the technologies are 'really there' why aren't they already in use on the Norwegian/Swedish border or the Swiss borders?

It might also be pointed out that these borders are not sensitive in the same way that the NI/RoI one is.

{BJ currently on the Nick Ferrari show on LBC, outlining his strategy to cherry pick the WA}

He can only be doing this as a way of eliminating himself from office surely?
It is one thing lying through his teeth and every other orifice to the UK public, but ALL the world leaders that he (and Hunt if he is doing similar) will be having to face will have recordings of all these lies.
It's not 'just' the EU (as if that isn't bad enough) but the Japanese, Chinese and so on.
Watching a possible future PM telling such outrageous lies will make dealing with any other country near impossible. Telling lies to gullible 'leavers' is one thing, but why would a Japanese trade delegation think about investing multi Billions in the UK?

I thought BoJo interview with Laura K was AWFUL. No wonder his team don't want him anywhere near the press. Cringed watching it.

Bluster and bullshit. I've seen better responses from primary school children. Horrified by the thought he could be our PM and might actually represent the UK internationally or make actual fucking decisions about our country. [holds head in horror]

I've got it! The border solution - hundreds of invisible Unicorns who will magically vet all goods as they pass! Why, it's so obvious!

BJ currently on the Nick Ferrari show on LBC

Just caught the end of the interview and listening to James O'Brien - I suspect that Steve Bannon is guilty of 'name dropping' and sending Boris Johnson one sided texts giving unsolicited advice.

oakenbeach "May remaining PM after a BJ defeat - which would also inevitably mean voting for the WA"

No, not inevitable at all.
As caretaker she is supposed to just keep the govt functions ticking over, but avoid making controversial policy decisions herself

The only kind of controversy she may get into, as in the Standard link, is recommending to HMQ who should become PM

However, she - or the new leader - might end up on 31 October putting the WA again;
Whoever is leader could be faced with a final desperate attempt to avoid No Deal
as red says, noone knows if the HoC would approve it on the last possible day

No, the ERG won't be choosing a new Tory PM if the new leader is voted down;
they then either obey the whip to vote for May if she faces an NC, or get expelled / quit.

Of course BJ doesn't believe his own lies. He's ruthless and a liar, but not stupid.

Bannon said that there was lots of doing and froing as he helped B Johnson with his resignation letter. B Johnson appears to have colluded with a foreign power in undermining the UK government.

clavinova Veteran Leaver North explaining why Karlsson's expertise is too narrow
- his plan only tackles a small part of border checks and will NOT work

http://www.eureferendum.com/results.aspx?keyword=Karlsson

last Wednesday, Dr Karlsson had been attentively received by the Commons Brexit committee, to lay out his plan for a "smart border" between the two parts of Ireland, which could resolve the impasse that for months has threatened to derail Brexit talks.

The only snag, he tells his readers, was that,
as a customs man, Dr Karlsson focused entirely on "customs controls",
completely failing to address those other "border controls" which are by far the more serious part of the problem.

Nothing he said would do anything to avoid the need for Border Inspection Posts,
where, under EU rules, all live animals and "products of animal origin", from milk to fish,
will require inspections by officials wholly unconnected with customs

The same applies to the Designated Points of Entry required to inspect all plant and vegetable products (right down to the wooden pallets used in transporting them).

All these items, Booker says, "form a very significant part of the currently "frictionless" cross-border trade between the two parts of Ireland, worth billions of pounds a year.

But leaving the EU will make a "hard border inevitable"
< without NI, at least, staying in the Single Market and also having a Customs Agreement wth the EU Y

Motheroffourdragons
I am pretty confident that the idea of a technical solution to the border has been ruled out on many many different occasions as the technology is not available

Apparently not - Lars Karlsson is a member of the technical panel for The Alternative Arrangements Commission - they had a conference in Westminster yesterday.

My 12 year old told me her solution to Brexit last night - we change the National Anthem to the Emperor's March from Star Wars. Everyone would be so distracted/excited try this that it would bring everyone together.

I don't see that is any more mad than some of the nonsense that has been trotted our about the "technical solution ".

I'll say this as succinctly as possible- if the technical solution is within easy reach then it is no big deal signing the WA . The backstop only comes into play for the duration of the period when the tech solution is being set up. If it's already available, no need for the backstop.
Could it possibly be that there is no technical solution here now or nearly here?

P.S. a time limited backstop isn't a back stop.