Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

She has a govt now. The ERG would just be supporting the status quo

Firstly, if the ERG do fall behind a Tory PM that’s not BoJo, TM would be almost last on their list! Hunt would be a more likely bet.

Secondly, if Hunt (or whoever) pushed for a no-deal, presumably the same Tory rebels would bring him down too! If s/he didn’t,’the only options would be to bring back the WA, referendum or revoke. If s/he tried either of the latter two, I’m sure enough Brexit Spartans would bring them down. As for the WA, it might conceivably pass.... after all, even JRM and Raab voted for it at the 3rd try, and more Labour MPs might join them this last time (As they have indicated they would). I still think this would be very unlikely but still a possibility.

oakenbeach The ERG can't just pick a leader of their party at random.

They- like all other Tory MPs who wish to stay Tory MPs -
are required to support the new leader who would have just been elected
and if he loses an NC then they have to support May if she also faces an NC

Any MPs - Remainers or ERG, Labour or Tory - who don't vote with their party on an NC would lose the Whip and be kicked out of the party

Certainly Tory MPs who bring down their own govt would be expelled

The ERG as a group would think very carefully before splitting the Tory party,
which would probably hand the next GE on a plate to JC, not Farage

Would the govt fall if BJ loses a vote of NC - when he is not yet PM ?

I thought not and that May would just carry on - unless she afterwards also loses an NC - but now I'm unsure

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom

Not entirely clear... Generally speaking it's government but in those circumstances it might not be, because of the wording / convention and only being Tory party leader not pm.... He would have 14 days to reverse from what I can tell...

Don't know.

I hadn't seen this before but the Petitions Committee invited comments about impartiality in the BBC.

The comments on the House of Commons Facebook page are astonishing .
The vast majority of comments suggest the BBC shows a remain bias!

Despite having given Farage three years plus of disproportionate airtime, despite having given him huge amounts of oxygen for a non MP. ..apparently the BBC should be making up broadcasting the positives of Brexit. No doubt it's the BBCs job to find these elusive benefits for us all to embrace.

The comments are here:
https://www.facebook.com/UKHouseofCommons/photos/a.183499548715839/875769506155503/?type=3&theaterr_

They- like all other Tory MPs who wish to stay Tory MPs - are required to support the new leader who would have just been elected

I appreciate that, but things would have reached such an impasse that they have run out of credible options.

The desire to maintain a Tory Government will of course be extremely strong and instinctual, but I believe we’re finally reaching a point where its divisions simply can’t be patched over any longer and a schism becomes unavoidable.

The credibility of the ERG if they connived in May remaining PM after a BJ defeat - which would also inevitably mean voting for the WA - would be utterly and irretrievably shot to pieces, and Tory members would defect en masse to the Brexit Party. Come the eventual GE, it’s hard to see how the Tories wouldn’t be obliterated in such circumstances and those ERG MPs that supported May consigned to the political wilderness, vilified by all sides.

I think the Tories are simply clinging onto any power they have while they still have it. Whatever happens, they're utterly fucked. Never has the 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' saying been more pertinent.

Brexit has killed the Tories, that's for sure. Had Labour had a more convincing leader, this would've been their time to shine. But they don't, and it isn't.

Somebody needs to CTL + ALT + DEL and reboot the lot of them to enable U.K. politics to move forward out of this utter hole which has been dug, with politicians queuing up to throw themselves in. And then keep digging once they're in there!

There are a small number of Brexiteer Labour MPs who also want to keep the no-deal option open — but would the likes of Dennis Skinner ever vote to support a Tory government in a motion of no confidence

If they did, they would earn the everlasting condemnation of their movement

What all this shows is that the new leader of the Conservative Party is unlikely to have a majority for his central policy come the autumn, and may not have a majority this July full stop

If the latter is the case, then Mrs May will have to recommend that the Queen asks Jeremy Corbyn whether he can assemble a majority instead. If not, it’s election time

No wonder Britain’s top civil servant has put the current Prime Minister on notice that her biggest decision may be still to come

www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-may-s-last-decision-could-be-her-most-important-a4174446.html

Where has the idea that BJ could lose a NCV and May stay on as PM ? this is just fanciful.

The Tories will support whoever wins the leadership contest and my monies on Hunt... BJ just comes across as an illiterate buffoon.

I also think that the WA (in its present form) is indeed dead, it failed to get through on the last 2 dead lines and there are enough Con and Lab MPs to make sure it doesn't get through by 31st October.

All this posturing by Hunt/BJ reminds me of Mays speeches leading up to March ........

We also need to bear in mind that the Tory donors have left, largely, and their party has been taken over - as Farage admitted. They are a husk for Euroscepticism alone now.

I'm starting to think maybe my friend supporting JC was right - staying out of it was the best option. Terrible for opposition but to wait until it has played out and become clear who pulls the strings...maybe.

Dennis skinner has been rather quiet of late hasn't he?

Labour losing control of bolsover council for the 1st time in God knows how many years must have been a wake up call, surely?????

Where has the idea that BJ could lose a NCV and May stay on as PM ? this is just fanciful.

The NC vote issue has arisen because some Tory MPs have said they'll vote against the government in this situation.

TM herself has said she'll stay on until the new party leader can command a majority.

So it's all come from the Tories themselves.

There are a small number of Brexiteer Labour MPs who also want to keep the no-deal option open — but would the likes of Dennis Skinner ever vote to support a Tory government in a motion of no confidence

Skinner (et al) may deeply dislike the EU, but he hates the Tories.... It would be unconceivable for him not to support a vote of NC in a BJ Government.

The beast of bolsover has been rather quiet of late....

Oh, didn't think my other post posted! Sorry!

Comparisons are being made with Chamberlain.

Chamberlain resigned the premiership on 10 May 1940 as the Allies were being forced to retreat from Norway, as he believed that a government supported by all parties was essential, and the Labour and Liberal parties would not join a government he headed. He was succeeded by Winston Churchill

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neville_Chamberlain

A national unity government was what we should have had in July 2016 too.

And if the party members vote for Bojo and loads of tory MPs vote against him in a VONC, that has to be the end of this version of the tory party at least.

I think the latter part of your sentence is true whatever happens really. The Tories have committed political suicide over Brexit.

Amber Rudd on Today a study in disingenuity praising BJ's energy, enthusiasm and other assorted virtues as a means to persuading him to engage in debate so these attributes (and his wonderful plans) would be unveiled for all to see and hear. Hahaha. Finished off by saying she supports Hunt.

Thanks, red
Brexit bringing us into new constitutional territory and ever more muddle

I'm sure / hopeful Bercow knows, so he can tell the HoC if need be

Just listened (again) to Johnson's interview with Laura and gosh... he thinks the Irish border issue should be left till 'the other side' of Brexit, i.e. once he's cherry-picked the bits of the Backstop that work? Because he claims there are 'abundant technological solutions' to the border issue which mean there won't have to be a hard border.

This is our potential next PM? [embarrassed]

Boris Johnson has admitted he would need EU co-operation to avoid a hard Irish border or crippling tariffs on trade in the event of no deal.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, the favourite to be next prime minister said: "It's not just up to us."

But he said he did "not believe for a moment" the UK would leave without a deal, although he was willing to do so.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48751527

To him it doesn't matter if there is a solution, all that matters is that her persuades enough people to suspend their disbelief about his vague proposals. It doesn't matter if there is a unicorn if enough people believe there is one. Until of course it matters, but then its too late.