Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

If BJ loses the NC vote, he will remain leader of the Tory party in the country, but not PM !

That would make him really, really mardy, because he wants to be PM, not Leader of the Tories. I assume that May would carry on? I am not going to shed any tears for the Tories and the mess they have got themselves into.

Car crash.
He is not showing any qualifications or reasons why he should be PM.

Piffle, waffle and jokes are enough for his media career, but not for PM

Remember the zip wire and helmet???

Oh dear.

I imagine he felt like James bond...

Yep, the PM always stays on - even after a GE - until someone else can command a majority in the HoC

There’s an assumption there that women find BJ irresistible.

Of course May might have been looking forward to a nice Autumn walking holiday, free of the worry of being PM. It would be justice though - I don't have much time for her, but I think her party have treated her shabbily.

If he lost either to Cunt or in a NCV he would have his teary about to puke face on again like the day after the EU ref...the only bright point of that dreadful day imo!

Govey and bojo looking like they were about the cry. Diddums.

They won! They really should be getting over it by now....

If he loses a NC vote does TM carry on or would JC be given the opportunity to try and form a government?

Well, I'm a woman and boris makes my uterus shrivel.

That's an interesting / complicated question, best !

afaik:

If BJ loses, then May remains PM - BUT then JC might call an NC vote against her too
(the result need not be the same, as a couple of Tories might support May, but not BJ)

If JC wins, then the govt falls and he - and everyone else - have 14 days to try to get a majority in the HoC
If noone can, then there would be a GE

It might even be that a few Remainer Tories would provide confidence & supply, on condition that e.g. JC agrees finally to a PV

OR,
it may be that if BJ loses, the govt falls and May would have to try to form her majority again, while JC is trying to get his majority

@red Would the govt fall if BJ loses a vote of NC - when he is not yet PM ?

I thought not and that May would just carry on - unless she afterwards also loses an NC - but now I'm unsure

@RedToothBrush

Good post at 17:18

I think there’s quite a sizeable 4th group you missed. Those who only engage superficially with all the Brexit shenanigans, are fed up with it, and “just want to get on with it and leave”.

This group aren’t especially motivated by Leave or Remain arguments and just wish Brexit would “go away” and stop continuing to be the top news story on the half hourly 2 minute Heart FM news round-up. Most of this group are politically disengaged and aren’t particularly likely to vote, but would respond with “just leave - no deal!” if asked.

One way of winning those members of this group who do vote might be for the LibDems to state they’d revoke Article 50 if 50% or more people voted for Remain parties in an autumn GE... No 2nd referendum campaign required and revoking A50 is the best way for Brexit to all go away!

Would 50% vote that way? Well, its worth a shot, and if Brexit is to be stopped legitimately 50%+ vote for Remain is needed at some point!

Hourly not half-hourly...

Govey and bojo looking like they were about the cry. Diddums

They looked like a pair of six year olds caught raiding the biscuit tin. Contrast that with the people of Sunderland who were jubilant. Mind you that was when they thought that Nissan would stay forever.

Would May try to form another Govt? I think she would be out of potential allies. I don't think she'd get much change from the LibDems, SNP or PC.

It might even be that a few Remainer Tories would provide confidence & supply, on condition that e.g. JC agrees finally to a PV

Given that a referendum would take many months to organise, I think this is very unlikely.... C&S would require those Tories to support a Labour Queens Speech and Budget!

If a vote of no confidence succeeds, I don’t see any other realistic option than a GE.

One way of winning those members of this group who do vote might be for the LibDems to state they’d revoke Article 50 if 50% or more people voted for Remain parties in an autumn GE...

But the LibDems would have to form a Government to revoke, or at least supply the PM. With the best will in the world, I don't think that is going to happen, but who knows? I think the scale of the wins in the Local Elections did take them a bit by surprise and ditto the Euro elections.

Would May try to form another Govt?

Can’t imagine the ERG facilitating that! Besides, what exactly would May do anyway? Bring her deal back for a 4th time?

BigChoc - the FM in the Scottish Parliament still has to be voted into post by the whole of the Parliament - and with a PR system that was designed not to have overall majorities, while it is usually (and has been to date) the leader of the largest party, it is not a given. Ruth Davidson "stood" last time against Nicola (as expected, the only people who voted for wee Ruthie were the Conservative MSPs )

The other group that Red missed (I think - too far back for me to scroll back to on the phone) is those that apparently genuinely but ignorantly think that "No Deal" = "the Status Quo"

Remember the zip wire and helmet???

I think I read on a thread on here that was a complete media set up.

In other news, DH was at a Spoons this evening and has been reading something about Tim Martin and a “diaspora”. He was a bit confused until I reminded him that Tim Martin was a fecking eejit.

I think the WA could come back for another go if No deal was looking likely.

oakenbeach
"Would May try to form another Govt?^ Can’t imagine the ERG facilitating that! "^

I disagree.
She has a govt now. The ERG would just be supporting the status quo
Losing an NC would mean the govt falling, JC trying to form a govt, but a probable GE

It would be VERY unusual - and career-ending - for an MP not to support their govt in an NC vote
That's why there are only a few Tory Remainers prepared to NC over No Deal - those retiring anyway

The ERG might just join Farage, if they voted against their own govt, but still v unlikely, imo,
because it would mean the Tory party officially splitting

"It might even be that a few Remainer Tories would provide confidence & supply, on condition that e.g. JC agrees finally to a PV"

It was Ken Clarke talking about a change in govt "possibly without a GE" that made me suggest that as an (unlikely) possibility

That's what he would mean, Ex-Tories - as well as LDs, SNP, Plaid - giving c&s to Labour
So obviously, the Queen's speech & later on, the budget, would have to be agreed together

Very very difficult .... but Clarke raised the possibility and parties have come together to handle emergency situations, such as the Depression and WW2

@Perigrina

Yes they would... But if Brexit is going to be stopped, the LDs will need to be a powerful force in the next Parliament. If they can only muster a couple of dozen seats in the current circumstances, then “Remain” will have failed and we might as well just accept no-deal....

This is potentially a perfect alignment of circumstances for the LibDems.... As I’ve posted before, if BJ is voted down, the one-nation Tories will very likely swing behind them, and with mixed messages from Labour under a Brexiteer leader with worse ratings than May, they are likely to do very well from metropolitan Labour voters too.... If they can form an arrangement with the Greens to ensure the Remainer vote isn’t split, then they could do very well indeed!

NB all the polls before for the EU elections underestimated their support, and the spread of Westminster seats they would have won is far greater than what you get if you simply plugged the data into electoralcalculus.com as their vote is clustered in the same way Labours’s is (though admittedly not quite to the same extent). Add in local electoral arrangements with the Greens and suddenly they take all manner of seats you would never have imagined, like my true-blue seat in Suffolk for instance.

Whisky As red posted in her OP:

"The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think.

If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do?

While May is a caretaker PM, the convention is that she does not attempt controversial policies, such as the WA again.

In fact, she actually has caused mild controversy with the large amounts of money she has just allocated to some sectors
and her pronouncements on climate change

However, attempting the WA again - except on 31 October ! - is v v unlikely