Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

It wouod also be good to remember who is having so much influence on Trump.
And who has been meddling during the referendum campaign.

I’m pretty sure that if someone was to dig a little deeper, we wouod find the Russian influence there. Russia who has such a huge issue with the EU and has so much to gain by weakening it.

The 'Russian Influence' and 'Russian Meddling' narratives have served as a very convenient smokescreen and distraction from what is really happening and who is really working behind the scenes, haven't they?

Some people are still so fixated on the alleged Russian interest in weakening the EU that they are ignoring every single detail of Trump's trade policy since his election, and his direct and very clear statements on the EU and tariffs seem not to have penetrated their consciousness at all.

Trump and the people he works for (hint: they are American) is out to destroy the EU, people.

Hence the referendum, with public opinion softened up for a few years previously by papers and discussion points churned out by 'think tanks' composed of libertarian academics from George Mason University, funded by the Koch Brothers, and then delivered by the money and expertise of Robert and Rebekah Mercer/Cambridge Analytica.

with a starter of 'Special Relationship'.

With Churchill having an American mother and Johnson being born in the USA. People tend to forget that the Americans only came into either WW1 or 2 when it suited them.

peregrina The 1975 referendum was won by Remain with 67.2 %
Overwhelming

Trump and the people he works for (hint: they are American) is out to destroy the EU, people.

Deep down, I expect the people around Trump know full well that the American Empire is losing out to the Chinese Empire, so they want to pick off other competitors, as they did with the USSR.

The coming Chinese Empire probably won't be a military one, but it will still be an Empire non the less.

I wonder if the WA would have gone through if the government weren't relying on the DUP. If the rUK was free to do whatever it wanted.

For the 4% Remain vote to be acceptable, there would have to be the political will

I;m afraid I don't understand. For there to be a 'remain win' there first needs to be a P.V. There will only be a P.V if parliament give us one - meaning they have the political will to enact whatever the decision is.

It's slightly different if the next vote given to us is a GE - but ultimately that would be measured in seats not percentage points. Whether they gave us a P.V or just revoked following a GE would depend on whether or not the party/coalition in charge had the seats to vote for it. If the tories or the BXP got in it would be hard brexit/ no deal full steam ahead - no extra vote necessary. But we all know that vote share and seat distribution don't always match up, tactical voting will come into play - but at the end of the day, it only matters that the people in charge have the seats to get their policy over the line - not how definitively they won those seats.

"With Churchill having an American mother and Johnson being born in the USA. People tend to forget that the Americans only came into either WW1 or 2 when it suited them."

US came into WWII after Germany declared war on them. Which Germany did after Pearl Harbor. It didn't "need to" but followed its Axis ally, Japan. Just for a bit of clarity there, @Peregrina .

The whole point of a PV is to break the HoC deadlock, so we would choose between the WA and remaining, which Parliament has proven itself incapable of doing.

Hester's PV wording is great.

I actually don't think there are that many no dealer leavers around (not proportionally in the electorate). It's just that the emptiest vessels are the loudest (Mark Francois, anyone?), so they're making their voices heard.

So, let's have Hester's(!) PV and see what happens!

At least it would mean that whoever fronted Team Leave would have to sell the WA to leavers. Which I'd quite like to see!

The 1975 referendum was won by Remain with 67.2 % Overwhelming

Interestingly, polls earlier in that year showed a majority supporting ‘leave’!

I suspect Peregrina's point was that the US didn't join the war in support of the UK until three years after the invasion of Poland, and might not have for a while longer if it hadn't been for the attack on Pearl Harbour.

(Though of course the UK sat on her hands for a good while after the invasion of Poland...)

Lend Lease was an arrangement that had great benefits for the US in the long term.

I actually don't think there are that many no dealer leavers around (not proportionally in the electorate).

I think there are quite a lot I’m afraid - but with the majority of those not having the foggiest idea what no-deal really is.

The problem is ‘no-deal’ sounds tough and decisive to those who haven’t considered what it really amounts to, when actually it’s a self-destructive dereliction of duty.

I still don't think their number / percentage against the full electorate is that high. It's just that every bloody news team hunts them out to speak with so there looks to be more!

Every mixed group (i.e. commenting on something like a Metro article on Facebook) seems to have a small percentage of no dealers who keep commenting to bang the drum, but far more people calling them out as idiots!

hesters PV question isn’t great as it doesn’t measure the appetite for no deal.

By default anyone who spoilt their ballot paper or didn’t vote could be assumed to want no deal.

The only PV question I can see working is just a simple majority on the 3 choices (no deal, WA or revoke)

That way it just makes the decision that parliament are unable to.

It’s shite that the decision would potentially be only what just over a third of the voting population wants but I can’t see any other option.

You cannot have no deal on the ballot for all of the reasons pretzel has listed. People shouldn't be allowed to vote on something which will destroy the economy and is only a temporary measure, as no deal only lasts until there actually is a deal done (in desperation as the U.K. economy tanks).

People need to stop considering it as a viable option. It's not. Anyone telling you it is will be doing so because either they're going to make money from sterling crashing or they don't understand what it means.

People need to stop considering it as a viable option

Of course it is viable - it’s the default.

It might be dreadful but it is viable.

You also can't have a question which splits the leave vote. If you want to leave your choice will be WA. If you don't, it's remain. If you want to no deal above all else, and just leaving isn't enough for you, then either don't vote or spoil your paper.

But no dealers were never given no deal as an option. It wasn't promised to them before. It's only the HoC deadlock which has opened that door.

All leave literature stated we'd leave with a deal. So they can't say that the WA isn't what they voted for, because they voted to leave with 'a' deal. Not a specific deal and not no deal.

A PV with WA vs Remain allows them to clarify their choice. Leave with a deal (as previously promised) or stay. If they're desperate to leave, they'll vote WA.

Of course it is viable - it’s the default.

It might be dreadful but it is viable.

No, you're confusing 'can happen' with 'viable'. Just because something can happen, doesn't make it viable.

Dictionary definition: capable of working successfully. Which is not no deal. It'll be a disaster, therefore it's not viable.

You can’t take an option off the table just because you don’t like it.

It’s the default position.

As stated on here, there are only 3 ways forward here - a PV would just pick one as parliament are unable to.

My suggestion wouldn’t be splitting the leave vote as the winner would be the one with the highest number of votes, which could be less than 50%

But you don't have 'no deal' forever. At some point you have to 'deal'. Therefore it's not something you can actually have because there will, eventually (you'd think sooner rather than later), HAVE to be a deal done to prevent total economic oblivion. Therefore you can't vote for it as it doesn't really exist as an option.

If you want to no deal above all else, and just leaving isn't enough for you, then either don't vote or spoil your paper.

And this is where that argument becomes ridiculous because you couldn’t act on an assumption about those who didn’t vote or spoilt their ballot papers; that’s why it needs to be an active choice on the ballot paper

The number who didn’t vote or spoilt ballot papers would be far higher than that of those who actively chose no deal.

Therefore you can't vote for it as it doesn't really exist as an option.

That is really clutching at straws.

No deal is just no deal in place for now.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/24/irish-border-kept-open-within-three-years-after-no-deal-brexit-says-report

If I were Boris I'd seize on to that and suggest a backstop end date in 3 years with only potential 'technical' extensions in case there are unfortunate and unlikely operational niggles to sort out. That way, everyone saves face. We'd have a deal and we'd be on our way. Job done.

Yes, that's how voting works. You vote for a choice offered or you don't vote / spoil your paper.

I'm confused why any remainder would argue so vociferously about having no deal on a ballot paper. Why would we care what - some - leavers want when they don't give a shit about the 48%?

Give them the two viable choices and be done with. Leavers can still leave, remainders can remain. Job sorted. (Well, kind of, it may mean years of negotiations if WA wins, but the HoC deadlock will be resolved.)

Remainers...my phone hates that word (though does know Brexit).