To ask Remainers ...

[ScreamingLadySutch]

Your views?

Brexiteers were asked their reasons the other day. So I would like to ask Remainers

• what do you think will happen, and what are you so afraid of?

{I think under a no deal scenario job losses will happen very quickly in Brexit voting areas; and I am not sure those in Government will care. }

Well Westminster government has had decade to help the areas that statistically have voted for Brexit so the chance of suddenly doing so, especially as the process of leaving will hammer the economy is very low.

My little wave of insight this week is... Brexiters push a narrative that Britain is different from rEU. Claim we are more dynamic, more prosperous, nimble. By 'shackling' ourselves to EU project, Britain will be held back.

Actually we're frightfully very much like rEU. Demographics, traditions, economies, legal systems, etc. Plus we quite like rule of law (all the 'stultifying' regulations).

There is no big tidal wave of global growth that UK can easily catch, else plenty OECD countries would be on it already. The countries with most growth tend to be middle-income & industrialising, likes of Ethiopia, Vietnam & Bangladesh.

{Actually we're frightfully very much like rEU. Demographics, traditions, economies, legal systems,}

Mainly because the majority of the inhabitants of the UK are European.
Building the 'Empire' was easy when you could just exterminate those that got in the way.
The UK are 'selling' the idea of leaving on the basis there is another continent to be 'discovered' and exploited. That ended over 150 years ago. Maybe Westminster should flip the calendar over to discover the rest of the world has moved into the 21st century?

There is no big tidal wave of global growth that UK can easily catch, else plenty OECD countries would be on it already.

www.gov.uk/government/news/emerging-markets-dominate-uks-fastest-growing-export-partners

Research by HSBC finds approx.70% of future world growth will be from emerging economies.

"Further analysis by Standard Chartered shows Asia’s share of global GDP will likely reach 35% by 2030, equivalent to that of the euro area and U.S. combined."

"It also reports 7 of the world’s top 10 economies by 2030 will likely be made up of current emerging markets."

“By 2030, Asia will represent 66% of the global middle-class and 59% of consumption, highlighting the need for British businesses to be reaching out to these markets now."

UK and South Africa to co-lead initiative on digital trade, aiming to boost Commonwealth trade to $2tn

www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-south-africa-to-co-lead-initiative-on-digital-trade-aiming-to-boost-commonwealth-trade-to-2tn

Endorsed last week by N Ireland electing only Remain supportive MEPs.

I don't know anything about the vagaries of the NI voting system but the DUP MEP was elected first - pro Brexit?

You’re right, they elected one leave MEP. Genuine mistake. Twice as many of the total votes for Remain though.

{Further analysis by Standard Chartered shows Asia’s share of global GDP will likely reach 35% by 2030, equivalent to that of the euro area and U.S. combined."}

So, this is a big prediction. Wunderbar.
You think the EU and others won't be muscling in on these markets and are in a position to start negotiations immediately while the UK still hasn't worked out if it is in or out yet?
If the UK had signed the WA in December it would have been 6 months into the necessary negotiations to disentangle itself from the UK. It has another 3 months of farting about before talks can start, and that depends on,,,,,,, the UK making it's mind up about what it wants.
At the rate of progress the UK won't have completed the disengagement talks by 2030, let alone being able to capitalise on this (possible) trading opportunity.
Markets are only valuable if you have the wherewithal to make the actual trade. There may be a tendency for entrepreneurs from the UK just to relocate and set up overseas and abandon the UK.

If you were in Asia wanting to sell, would you pick the UK with only 60 Million or the EU with 450 million people who have money and a marketplace that once goods have got as far as Europe can be transported around 'tariff free' with common trading standards?

Frankiestein402

Investopedia (updated 29th May) still lists the UK as the 5th largest economy in the world - France has dropped to 7th place, overtaken by India.

"UK growth is slowing, but so is Europe’s"

"That hasn’t stopped opponents of Brexit jumping on these figures as the next piece of news to support their apocalyptic narrative, with loads of supposed experts jumping on the bandwagon and claiming special insight into the minds of the country’s business people. Many such experts also predicted a recession in the event of a leave vote that never materialised, so we should probably take their latest blurts with a pinch of salt."

telecoms.com/495433/uk-growth-is-slowing-but-so-is-europes/

{"UK growth is slowing, but so is Europe’s"}

And so is China's as well. That has the upside that it might slow the rate of global climate change.

Growth as a statistic has to be balanced against the absolute value - 100% growth of a small value can be much less than a 1.5% growth against a high value. (EU forecast for 2019 is 1.5% against $18.5 trillion even a tiny slice of that would be great)

But, taking the raw predictions as indicating target markets - who do you think these targets will negotiate with first - the EU or the UK?

To emphasise - the EU will not be standing still whilst Boris and IDS harrumph privilege around the globe and the EU have strong teams of trade negotiators active as we speak. On current progress India will have EU deals before we have a functioning government let alone trade teams.

(May's sacking of our most experienced EU hands, right at the beginning, was stupidity of the highest order, followed by the red line idiocy)

Research by HSBC finds approx.70% of future world growth will be from emerging economies

Nothing new here, that’s obvious.

What makes them want a trade deal with the UK rather than the EU?

Taken from the Guardian article referenced and note it is over 3 years old, from BEFORE the referendum.
{@George_Osborne

Leaving EU would stoke inflation & hit growth, leaving MPC with no-win choice on interest rates. UK would be poorer www.gov.uk/government/publications/open-letters-between-hm-treasury-and-bank-of-england-may-2016 …}

The BoE made various moves to prevent the Pound crashing completely, as is their job.

Ms Weyland is about to be head of EU international trade negotiations. She is a very smart cookie.
Meanwhile the UK has 'fuck business' Boris.

Tsk, end 2018 and Q1 2019 France and India both growing faster than uk -
countryeconomy.com/gdp/France - and that was including our stockpiling.
Medium and longer term forecasts have France overtaking Britain this year and India surpassing both by 2020
m.statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php

We appear to be 'courting' Egypt as well;

31st May UK uses expertise & exporting power to help build ‘Egyptian NHS’

"Vodafone, the British telecom operation has won a major contract that will form a key-part of the Egyptian government’s push to roll out NHS-style universal healthcare for every man, woman and child in the country."

"With backing from the Department for International Trade, Vodafone has secured a £100m project to build Egypt’s new Health Insurance IT system."

"The government in Cairo want the IT to underpin a new primary healthcare system similar to that which operates in the UK."

"Demand for British medicines in Africa has soared by 78% over the last decade and pharmaceutical exports to the region are now worth £455.9m."

www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-uses-expertise-exporting-power-to-help-build-egyptian-nhs

28th May UK train manufacturer named preferred bidder for €4.4 billion contract.

"Bombardier Transportation has been named by the Egyptian Government as preferred bidder to build and operate a new monorail system."

www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-train-manufacturer-named-preferred-bidder-for-44-billion-contract

There is also an issue equating GDP with 'quality of life'.
Maintaining and upgrading a countrie's infrastructure is a lot easier than building it from scratch, or dragging it up from being very outdated and failing.
Wanting the latest smartphone over last year's model is a long way from having to find a phonebox.

Frankiestein402
Overall GDP figures for 2018 on your link show the UK higher than France - uncertainty is our major problem at the moment. France has just had a wave of job cuts announced in the last few days/weeks as well.

Medium and longer term forecasts have France overtaking Britain this year and India surpassing both by 2020

It depends on whose forecast you read:

"France will overtake the United Kingdom to become the world’s sixth biggest economy next year as the impact of Brexit bites, but the UK will bounce back in 2020 and leapfrog its continental neighbour, a report has said."

www.scotsman.com/news/uk-news/uk-to-jostle-for-position-with-france-to-become-6th-biggest-economy-year-after-brexit-1-4848740

1tisILeClerc
You are quoting George Osborne, but Fraser Nelson (Scottish political journalist and editor of The Spectator) is arguing on twitter that Osborne should be prosecuted (as per Boris Johnson) for repeating all of this before the referendum;

www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-to-enter-recession-with-500000-uk-jobs-lost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/economy/news/93801/unemployment-record-low-despite-treasurys-pre-referendum-warning-500000

Meanwhile the UK has 'fuck business' Boris.

Apparently, Donald Trump thinks Boris Johnson would be an 'excellent' Tory leader.

Clavinova
Those reports are 'old data', December 2018 one of them and 2016 for the other.
Arguing the toss over 5/6/7 th place is pointless because the government of the UK are not prepared to spend that 'wealth' on it's people. They haven't for 40 odd years and there is no sign they are about to now. If you look at some of the Gulf states, a handful of people are mind blowingly wealthy, but it is not shared among the people.
France and many countries in the EU need some 'readjustment' but at the present the UK is totally fucked if it leaves. If it remained, the EU would likely 'assist' on a equal footing as their remit is not to pillage it's members. The USA will treat the UK as a very inferior 'lapfox' as it is not interested in the 'people' aspect, only cash.

{Apparently, Donald Trump thinks Boris Johnson would be an 'excellent' Tory leader.}

Anyone who licks your boots has some sort of appeal, if only clean boots.
How many visas for UK citizens is Trump offering to the UK?
Can I just go over there and start up a business?

uncertainty is our major problem at the moment

And how do you propose we address this 'major' problem?
Revoke = problem solved
Do not sign withdrawal agreement = uncertainty until we do
followed by
Sign withdrawal agreement followed by 2-7 years of further uncertainty whilst we negotiate a deal - with erg et al popping up at intervals to threaten' no deal'

It's frustrating that most MPs and much of the media and brexiteers appear to equate not signing the WA with 'no deal' - we have to sign the WA to negotiate a deal with the EU. We do not have a choice of not trading with the EU.

After a decade of 'uncertainty' we'll be lucky if we stay in the top 10.

The majority decision must be followed at any cost.

Good grief. That is no-deal Brexiters in a nutshell.

Great to see so many clear explanations on here, which will all fall on deaf ears of course. Personally, I love being European. I like the feeling of being part of a progressive grouping with a shared history and culture. If I had my way, we'd be part of a United States of Europe. I recognise that's an extreme view though, so I wouldn't try to foist it on millions of others, unlike supporters of a no-deal Brexit who have an equally extreme view.

The world is dominated by two superpowers - the USA and China - who hold that position due to their economic strength which comes largely from their size and abundance of natural resources.

The UK is geographically tiny with a relatively small population. It has few natural resources. Our former position of power and influence came from our naval resources, which in the digital world are no longer very valuable. If we want to retain a position of economic strength and global influence, we have no choice but to be aligned with a more powerful ally. I would much prefer this to be the EU than either China or the USA as I feel we share closer values.

{After a decade of 'uncertainty' we'll be lucky if we stay in the top 10.}

Don't worry, there are over 190 countries, it's a fair way to the bottom.

And note how easily remainers answer leavers’ questions!

I was just thinking that.