To ask if people think we’d still have to sign the Withdrawl Agreement in the event of No Deal Brexit

[Bearbehind]

I try and keep up with all things Brexit but I’m baffled by this one.

There is a school of thought which says, even in the event of no deal, we’d still end up having to sign the withdrawl agreement in order to start to negiotiations as a third country on trade deals.

If it’s true then I struggle to understand why Theresa May never made this very clear because it would get the vote through wouldn’t it?

I can’t find anything conclusive on the subject - the WA had to be signed to get a deal but it’s not mentioned in a no deal scenario.

Interested to hear from Leave and Remain voters on this - what is your understanding?

If, even in the event of no deal, we need to sign the WA, why don’t we just get on wth it?

Bear If we leave with no deal and sign the WA we won’t have breached the GFA.
If we don’t sign it we won’t be able to trade with the eu.
No other country is likely to trust us or want to enter into reasonable trade deals with us, especially the US.
Basically they’ll have us over a barrel and will be able to dictate their own terms.

If we leave with no deal and sign the WA we won’t have breached the GFA

But on what planet do you think that’s likely?

Bear the MPs who refuse to sign the WA stand to make a lot of money if the UK economy collapses.
They’re rich enough that they can ride out anything. I read that JR Mogg has already made 5 million out of this sorry fiasco.

Which just proves my point - why do you think they’d sign the WA with the disaster of no deal looming

Oh Leclerc you are painfully naïve if you believe that those in Parliament cared to read the WA in full, of course I am being a bit mean, I am sure at least 10% settled down with their ready readers and gave it their full attention.

Disclaimer - shop bought reading glasses are a poor substitute for those prescribed by a qualified optician. Just in case any are on here and giving me the hard stare !

We’re fucked basically.

woodpigeons we are not fucked, basically or otherwise. We have not left the EU, nearly three years since the referendum and we are still in. There is still time for it to definitely not happen

*1tis could you explain how anyone would be able to convince MPs who’d condoned no deal (if it ever happened) to support the very same WA they wouldn’t vote for before.

It’s utter bollocks.*

Hey, it's a good job the EU need us more than we need them, and will be falling over themselves to make a deal that is fantastic for us, isn't it?

This place is Disingenuous Central. 🤮

Remember all that has happened is a bunch of people have voted for another bunch of people to do a job in an organisation they don't believe we should be a part of.

I hope you are right frumpety, I really do.

And then another bunch of people voted for another bigger bunch of people to do a job in an organisation that they think we should be a part of

frumpety
I am not naive. My point is that MPs are supposedly responsible adults who have been tasked with looking after the welfare of all UK citizens and as such should read the fine print before trashing the UK.
Failure to read the fine print in your insurance documents or phone contract where you promise not to get upset when google harvests all your data to sell to others leaves you at a disadvantage when things go wrong.
Failure to read and understand the WA disqualifies them from the job.
OK quite a bit is legalese but in that case a 'Janet and John version outlining it's contents should have been provided.
It's meaning and interpretation will have been scrutinised by lawyers from all EU27 before they put pen to paper.

I am sorry Leclerc, I was being a bit goady ! I wonder how many of the general populous has read the WA, I certainly haven't

Will be without wifi for the next 24 hours to not ignoring anyone

But Frumpety even Jeremy Corbin hadn't read the WA agreement!!

{Jeremy Corbin hadn't read the WA agreement!!}

I wonder if that is a problem or not?
As a 'random' on the internet whether I have read it or not is unimportant. You might think the guy who could be Prime Minister should have made it his business to read what the UK is signing up for.

My understanding is that we have to pay the 39 billion whatever as it covers things like MEP pensions, infrastructure projects we are already committed to etc. I think we will also have to sign the withdrawal agreement in order to start trade talks with the EU. Leaving with no deal would be breaking GFA too. Rory Stewart has given a good explanation on why no deal/WTO is disastrous for manufacturing and farming in the UK - see Joe politics.

I think we'd have to sign some sort of gateway to starting negotiations on trade deals. Better or worse for the UK than WA? I wonder ...... for about 30 seconds. Of course it would be worse. We'd be on tbe back foot .

The EU have repeatedly said that after No Deal, they would not start negotiating a future trade deal, or even emergency mini-deals to keep the UK economy going,

until the Uk signs up to the main terms of the WA: exit bill calulations, expat rights, backstop

Of course the bill for the transition would no longer be due ... because we would have lost the transition !
There would be other changes due to leaving too,.

It would no longer be called a WA

but the idea that we can just No Deal and then get an EU trade deal without the backstop is a Brexiter fantasy

Every other major country or trade bloc is likely to place tough conditions on the UK for any future trade deal
e.g.

India would demand many more visas for its citizens

USA would demand the UK lower current food standards to accept chlorinated chicken, beef with hormones, food with an "acceptable" level of rat droppings & hair,
forcing the NHS to pay USA prices for drugs from US Big Pharma, so 3-4 times the cost of some drugs

Crashing out without a deal, hence without the "cushion" of a long transition period on the same trading terms,

means the UK would be in a dreadfully weak position negotiating with everyone, not just the EU

We would have lost not just the deal with the EU - with whom we do about 50% of our trade,
but also the 40 FTAs with 70 other countries and the 800 or so other types of traade arrangement, ,utual agreements on standards etc

and access to EURATOM, EuroMed etc

So expect every major country / bloc to take advantage of this unique situation and dictate terms to us

If we leave the EU without a deal we will have left and the WA will be irrelevant.

When we wish to negotiate a trade deal with the EU we will have to sign a document which will almost certainly contain elements currently in the WA.

It will not be the WA.

This argument is not about whether we should/should not, or will/will not, secure a trade deal.
It is not about a good or bad trade deal or even about WTO terms.

It is about whether we will have to sign the WA if we leave without a deal.
To sign a WA after we have left makes no sense.

To sign a different (trade arrangement) deal which contains some, but not all (eg. no transition period) of the same clauses as the WA makes perfect sense.

{It will not be the WA.}

It will be another version of the WA and as the EU have started to step their Brexit negotiators down, it very strongly suggests that a 'modified' WA will be pretty close to being a photocopy of the existing one, or a very high percentage of it. It will not give anything to the UK that is better than currently available.

It will be sad if Britain crashes out . It will be tough to be on an isolated little island surrounded by the unofficial 'enemies'