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Brexit

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?

960 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2019 23:50

It's been a month since parliament voting on anything.

The staggering reality of May's premiership is that government has ceased to function. We are stuck not just on Brexit but every other issue, such is the weakness of May's authority.

It begs the question of how long this is tolerable by all sides of the Conservative Civil War?

May being unable to bring anything forward means no deal is probably as inevitable as if a hardliner was PM.

There was talk of May / Corbyn reaching a fudge to get a deal via the backdoor WAB (Withdrawal Agreement Implimentation Bill) as it was politically impossible for them to be seen doing a deal any other way. However news today is that despite pressure from the 1922 Committee to bring it forward, May has slapped just a one line whip on it, meaning it will go precisely no where.

The polling for the European elections is perhaps more favourable to Labour than they might have feared after last weeks local election disaster so the mutual interest for Corbyn to move forward in anyway has already gone. Seeing the Tories be humiliated at the ballot box is too much of a temptation.

The phrase about Shit Creek only gets more apt.

All that is happening is every member of the Tory Party is lining up to take part in a leadership contest. It's harder to think of a Tory who isn't considering standing. It's not just the likes of Johnson, Gove, Rudd and Hunt. It's also the likes of Johnny Mercer and Graham Brady queuing not so patiently.

And its getting harder to argue that May is better as PM than the possibility of a right right candidate, because of the paralysis. Though as Rudd rightly points out, such a PM who wanted to actively have no deal as a policy, would struggle to win a majority in the HoC for that all important Queens Speech vote - every bit as much as May. Unless they were to somehow decide they could abuse the power of the executive and ignore parliament - a feat May has repeatedly attempted but ultimately failed at.

All everything feels, is a massive sense of merely delaying the inevitable.

Remain? Hard to see how under any Tory. A Deal? Hard to see what it might be and how there will be a Parliamentary majority. A PV? Well that still has to get through parliament and needs to be arranged smartish. And might not resolve the Irish border issue if the vote goes 'the wrong way' A General Election? That still seems to be a distinct possibility. But with the seeming resurrection of the LDs that's one the Tories will be desperate to avoid. Not that Corbyn is likely to succeed either. And of course there is now the Spectre of the Turquoise Arrows lurking. The crushing of the purple pound notes feels a hollow and distinct success.

It feels like we are waiting for the political sky to fall in in some sort of never ending Brexit Purgotory.

The cataclysmic event will occur at some point. It has to. But for now, it feels that there is nothing but waiting and waiting to be done.

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RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 18:09

*The above not average

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RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 18:30

Robert Peston@peston
There are two historic characteristics to current session of parliament. At 299 sitting days, it is longest since the English Civil War (of 1642-51). And it is notable for the paucity of big legislation - and consistent failure to complete its one important task, namely Brexit...

If the Civil War's famous and extraordinarily lengthy session was known as the Long Parliament, will @theresa_may's be named the Wrong Parliament?

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RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 18:33

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Jeremy Corbyn tells Labour MPs that the party’s European election campaign will focus on local issues.

Corbyn has just reduced the EU elections to bin collections, pot holes and planning.

Great news for the Lib Dems

But in really shows up a lot of the problem for the EU Ref itself when people voted on issues that are completely unrelated to what the EU does because they don't know what the EU does.

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RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 18:34

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Labour MP on Jeremy Corbyn’s speech to tonight’s PLP meeting: “20 secs on euro elections and now onto climate change. This is incredible. Disbelief in the room.”

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RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 18:38

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
PLP chairman John Cryer tells Labour MPs not to tell journalists outside the meeting what is being said.

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RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 18:44

We have a bus!!!

Westminstenders: A fully functioning government?
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RedToothBrush · 13/05/2019 18:50

Robert Peston@peston
Truthfully I thought the most interesting thing @michaelgove said to me earlier today was that his friend @George_Osborne - and by implication the 1992 committee which is the trade union of Tory MPs - is wrong to press the cabinet to force the PM to name a resignation date...

"On this rare occasion George is wrong" Gove said. "From time to time we do disagree".

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn
Interesting. Gove is far from alone among Cabinet Brexiteers in not wanting the leadership contest until after Brexit. Holding it before in their view, 1. Favours Raab and Boris, 2. Creates a No Deal showdown with the Commons, and therefore 3. Invites on a general election.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 13/05/2019 19:00

Have noticed on the local FB residents page that a lot of BP supporters don't seem to realise these aren't GE's; loads of posts about Nige becoming PM Hmm. All of them shout "fake news" when confronted with AM interview or any 'facts'.

I was wondering if anyone else was a bit [hmm at Corbyn's speech about the young not being paid equally? My gut reaction was that if we can't even get women paid equally and we are 50% of the population...

I've had a leaflet from all of the parties but I am the only adult in residence - surname also early in alphabet - and only one party has had theirs returned Grin

Mistigri · 13/05/2019 19:01

I have the choice of voting in my old constituency (south-west) or voting here in France.

I think your vote has more weight in SW England than in France where it is a national list. I'd vote for Molly Scott Cato without hesitation.

LonelyTiredandLow · 13/05/2019 19:03
Hmm In fact if there were ever such a drive in the future (young pay) I strongly suspect it would be the younger males who benefit over the females all over again, potentially undoing good work done to date.

Not keen on the bus, looks as though the local librarian is doing an outreach service to the rural villages Hmm

missclimpson · 13/05/2019 19:06

Thanks Mistigri. I feel most comfortable with that.

Mistigri · 13/05/2019 19:16

Missclimson plus the choice in France is fairly dreadful tbh. So many charlatans. I think the choice in the U.K. is far better - I'd be comfortable voting any of LD, Green or ChUK. Whatever you think of the parties most of their lists have good quality lead candidates.

Littlespaces · 13/05/2019 19:17

missclimpson

Please, please vote against Farage for a Remain party. You are in my constituency the SW and I would really appreciate a friendly vote from Europe. And please apologise on my behalf to all your friends and neighbours.

I'm just so sorry that fascism has reared its ugly head in the UK.

Littlespaces · 13/05/2019 19:19

Yes that is partly why I am torn Peregrina. I have a lot of time for MSC, but don't know if it is strategically best.

I think Molly or Lib Dems. Have a look at the polling just before you send it.

Littlespaces · 13/05/2019 19:19

Molly Scott Cato is fab.

missclimpson · 13/05/2019 19:20

DH seems to have forgotten to fill the form in for his vote so he can vote here and I will vote for Molly. 😊 My 15 years of UK vote are finished next year.

ContinuityError · 13/05/2019 19:43

No Euro election leaflets here at all - and no canvassers either. Although, for the locals DS was the only one to get a personalised Tory letter, we had Tory leaflets shoved through the letterbox but in the wee small hours, so guess they didn’t want to have any awkward doorstep conversations Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 13/05/2019 19:44

" and therefore 3. Invites on a general election."

Gove - and any other Tory MP with 2 brain cells - wants to avoid an election at all costs, now that the Tory vote even for Westminster is crashing.

atm, the most likely GE result under FPTP is that the Tories and BREX split the rightwing vote and Corbyn becomes PM

BREX will only get a significant number of MPs if they get in the upper 20s % and even then, they'd get fewer seats than Tory or Labour would.
With GE turnout, Farage's absolute peak is probably 25% .... but if we have No Deal and the economy falls off a cliff, so will normal politics

thethethethethe · 13/05/2019 19:50

prettybird - I don't mind supporting SNP, if that is the best thing to do from a Remain point of view. But is it? Don't know whether to vote SNP, Green or LD.
All are rubbish on transgender issues, unfortunately. I came across a local Green Party get together the other day and told them what I thought of that.

Littlespaces · 13/05/2019 19:51

What do you all predict will happen this year?

I'm interested in people's educated guesses.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/05/2019 19:52

Farage is only able to do well because the leaders of the 2 main parties have left a political vacuum

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

Nigel Farage is filling a #Brexit thought-vacuum that Theresa May created

http://m.email3.telegraph.co.uk/nl/jsp/s.jsp?c=@qanF1qbBgm+fjwlfhSkeYbYe4rfevsZwOHHJVhEbAeE=&d=twitter,36ca14a

All the Remainer outrage and earnest fact-checking missed the point that Mr Farage is not a politician who can be meaningfully fact-checked,
since he appeals not to the head but the understandably disgruntled heart of Brexit-supporting middle England.
.....
Some observers have noted how Mr Faragee_ has sharpened up his act after picking up a few tips from his time in the US.
One commentator this morning called him a ‘tin-pot Trump’ – I suspect that, even as he feigned more outrage, he’d quietly take that as a compliment.

Littlespaces · 13/05/2019 19:52

...and thanks missclimpson :)

BigChocFrenzy · 13/05/2019 19:57

Mike Hindd@MikeH*_PR

The discipline of Farage is technically impressive.
It's always about creating the shareable YouTube & Facebook clip.

If all you saw was a car crash interview you're not keeping up with how this stuff works
....

Jason Kintt@jason*_kint

Left: BBC version.
Right: Leave manipulated version.

Lesson:
Farage agrees to BBC interview.
Gets grilled but gets in his talking points.
Shortly after his supporters are spreading cuts across social media with Leave instead of BBC bug and @AndrewMarr9 cropped from visual.

Watch.
mobile.twitter.com/jason_kint/status/1127549721055244288

prettybird · 13/05/2019 20:03

Joanna Cherry has been quite good recently on transgender issues - but it does seem to be a mixed bag within the SNP. But as a PP has said (can't remember who), the priority at the moment is that our hair is on fire Wink

I'd like to hope that we can get 3 SNP, 1 LibDem, 1 Green and 1 Labour (down from their current 2) and keep out the Turquoise Party. I think it will be a tough call for the SNP to get enough for 4 MEPs, but I'm honestly not sure whether the other votes are better going to Green or LibDem.

woman19 · 13/05/2019 20:11

It's always about creating the shareable YouTube & Facebook clip.

Technique used on industrial scale by the little mobs of purple shirts; the Police advice is to ignore them; perhaps the BBC haven't had the memo. Attention makes their behaviour worse.

I would presume that these clips are important part of their income stream.