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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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woman19 · 04/05/2019 21:25

Good result from NI, there BCF.Smile. Gove's move on Holyrood is no surprise; I've tried to research his religious background with no success, but I have a few hunches.

Icantreachthepretzels · 04/05/2019 21:50

most of the Labour party will refuse to back it unless it goes to a PV

wasn't this the Kyle amendment - and something else before it got that name? The thing is - this is literally the only way out of the impasse. I know the W.A and political declaration are shit - but if we're going to brexit, then they have to happen. And if it's too shit for the politicians to swallow (and take culpability for) then they need to throw it back to the people - because if the electorate says it's OK as a form of brexit then they have a mandate to do it and plausible deniability when fingers start pointing (and if we vote remain the whole sorry mess goes away)

But we can't have a confirmatory referendum until there is a brexit plan in place (because we need to know what it is we're confirming).

If they agreed to the brexit plan in exchange for a confirmatory referendum and if the brexit plan was voted for - then our transition period would last pretty much up until the next GE was due ... meaning the wreckers would have had limited opportunity to wreck. The GE could then be fought on hard brexit vs lexit (among other things) and Labour could get the stupid jobs first brexit they claim to want if they won power in 2022.

I'm pretty sure that if they tagged a confirmatory referendum onto the deal - between the deal and remain - it would get the votes to pass (and would by pass that pesky erskine may rule). T.M gets her deal through. Libs/ greens/ SNP/ tiggers get their second referendum and Labour get an opportunity for a glorious lexiteer future in 2022. Something for everyone.

makes me bang my head against the wall that everyone looking to avoid a no deal brexit isn't seizing this and running with it. IT. SOLVES. EVERYTHING. (though in the event of the brexit deal being chosen in a referendum there will obviously be ten years more (at least) of political quagmire - but the parties can duke it out to see who gets to be the ones who define it after the transition period.)

BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2019 22:01

The Erskine May rule of procedure can be set aside anyway, by a simple HoC vote
If there are the votes for the WA, then this should not be a problem.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 04/05/2019 22:09

I’ve missed the last few threads. Caring for DH taking more of my time lately. His mobility is shocking and the ever more frequent falls have battered his confidence. His insomnia is off the scale which means he spends a lot of time during the day and evening asleep. I’m feeling quite lonely and isolated and sad. Can’t cope with all this and Brexit. The whole ‘this shows the people want us to get on Brexit’ line is just mind-blowing and now we have Tory MEP candidates planning to vote against themselves. Confused

It’s like Lewis Carroll is scripting life. With occasional help David Lynch.

NoWordForFluffy · 04/05/2019 22:11

And David Lynch films are dire; life shouldn't be that crap!

woman19 · 04/05/2019 22:11

Flowers babooshka

prettybird · 04/05/2019 22:18

Michael Gove might be an "extreme Unionist" but if he were to become Conservative leader/PM and do what he threatens proposes, he would prove himself to be the greatest gift to the Independence movement Smile

To quote Wendy Alexander (former leader of Scottish Labour), "Bring it on" Grin

ContinuityError · 04/05/2019 22:18

woman19 Gove was brought up in Aberdeen - there’s not a lot of staunch religious views there apart from the Wee Frees (and that’s pretty limited - I knew a couple of families that wouldn’t let their sporty children train or compete on a Sunday). The Brethren were up in Peterhead as far as I know. There is no Catholic / Protestant issue in Aberdeen from what I saw of 20 years living there.

Iambuffy · 04/05/2019 22:19

babooshka 💐

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 04/05/2019 22:22

Flowers babooshka

BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2019 22:31

babooshka 💐 I'm sorry things are so tough for you both

BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2019 22:33

John Bull had Gove sussed:
< wet tentacles slapping >

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 04/05/2019 22:36

Oh, thank you lovely people. Sorry for the self-pity. I know so many people, including a number on these threads have it much, much harder. I must try to snap out of it.

Meanwhile, about my ERG MP...

I wrote him a long, critical email a few weeks ago and got a standard, send to all response so emailed him back, asking him to address some specific points. Again, very pointed and critical. I got a response from his office asking for my full address in order for him to reply. I find myself reluctant to supply it. I know MPs ask for an address but I was very critical. I feel weirdly nervous about supplying my address. I’m being ridiculous and paranoid aren’t I?

ContinuityError · 04/05/2019 23:00

SingingBabooshkaBadly My MP asks for an address too, saying that they can only deal with constituents.

What is your MP going to do with the address of a pissed off constituent? Given the attitude of most Tory MPs to any Brexit criticism I suspect you’ll be quietly ignored or fobbed off with the usual crap platitudes.

Littlespaces · 04/05/2019 23:02

@acgrayling
Latest YouGov poll (3 May):
Remain 61%
Repeat:
61%

These polls are getting confusing. Nobody has a clue.

LoonvanBoon · 04/05/2019 23:39

babooshka, I'm so sorry you're having such a hard time.

Re the address thing, I agree that sounds pretty normal practice. I emailed my MP around the time of the indicative votes, and he sent a reply through the post: I assumed he (or, more likely, someone working for him) found my address on the electoral roll.

Then one of my 16 year old twins, obviously not yet on the electoral roll, sent him a slightly ranty (though polite!) brexit related email, and he had an email asking for an address to reply to. I'm guessing a lot of MPs just ask for addresses straight off rather than checking electoral rolls.

As a long term lurker & only occasional poster, I usually find anything I think of posting has already been posted here! But don't think I've read anything about this v unpleasant sounding brexit party rally in Lancashire. Interesting thread about it on Lewis Goodall's twitter here:

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124707052826308608

It sounds horribly Trumpian (if that's a word!) and makes me wonder just what would satisfy these people now - evidently not a May / Corbyn CU type arrangement, if such a thing is possible. Goodall makes the point that it would be Corbyn who would be left in parliament as the representative of any such deal, as May would presumably be gone - so it would be completely toxic for the Labour party.

I don't know how many people are as extreme as those who go to Brexit party rallies. But given how ingrained this betrayal narrative now is, how it almost seems to be an end in itself, I can't see what Corbyn would really have to lose if he came out unequivocally in favour of a PV. He's loathed as it is. And given the absolute hatred directed at Theresa May, it's hard to see how it could get any worse if she just revoked Article 50. If her WA, which leaves open the possibility of a pretty hard brexit, is seen as 'not brexit' and an establishment stitch-up, why not go the whole hog.

NoWordForFluffy · 04/05/2019 23:42

These polls are getting confusing. Nobody has a clue.

But 68% are apparently voting for leave parties in the EU elections? It's like they're all on drugs!

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/05/2019 00:12

I find myself reluctant to supply it. I know MPs ask for an address

Whenever I email my MP (always to criticise, he is awful!) I always sign my name with the first part of my postcode to show I am a constituent. He ALWAYS replies back with a proper letter. Meaning he (or more likely a flunky) looks me up on the electoral roll. I'm sure he would claim he is showing the personal touch by replying with a proper letter. I find it deeply sinister.
He might as well come to my front door and daub I know where you live across it.

NoWordForFluffy · 05/05/2019 00:25

The website which monitors MPs' replies (I forget its name - is it They Work for You?) won't send your email without an address.

My MP wasted money by writing back. He conveniently failed to address my Cambridge Analytica and dark money comments and simply ranted about having to Brexit (and the Labour talks 'stealing' Brexit. Wanker. Thick as mince too.

woodpigeons · 05/05/2019 00:51

Babooshka you certainly aren’t being self pitying and I’m so sorry things are so difficult for both of you.
Do you have any support for yourself ?

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 00:51

Rolling back devolution = going after removing the Human Rights Act.

Devolution is the thing that stands in the way of removing the HRA and that's why Gove is talking about it. I'd put money on it.

Also see repealing the GFA.

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RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 00:52

Not that he can 'repeal' the GFA. What with it being an international agreement.

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SingingBabooshkaBadly · 05/05/2019 00:59

I know I’m being ridiculous about the address thing! I put my full postcode on the email so he could easily find the address if he wanted to anyway.

I found myself turning my ‘In varitate concordia’ tee-shirt inside out before hanging in on the line in case Brexiter neighbours spotted it so we can safely say I’m developing full on Brexit-induced paranoia Blush

I don’t know exactly what I’m worried about really. That if I ever need my MP’s help with anything he’s remember me? Or maybe that he’ll spot our planning application, remember me as the person who persistently asked awkward questions and will spitefully use his influence with the local council to get it refused? This is a future planning application that I’ll probably never make btw. I really need to get a grip...

Blush
RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 01:00

Express Front Cover, Mail Political Spread and Times all reporting Brexit deal between May and Corbyn this week with customs union.

Why this week we wonder...

Tossers.

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
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SingingBabooshkaBadly · 05/05/2019 01:03

woodpigeon. I have some good friends whose ears I will bend if it all gets too much.. I’m also thinking of investigating the local carer’s group. Thank you - I appreciate your kind words Smile