Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

[RedToothBrush]

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

I think May will want to push a deal through before the eu elections.
Only Corbyn can stop her and I have no faith whatsoever in either of them.

There do seem to be quite a lot of genuine Independents getting elected, rather than ex tories and kippers who've fallen out with their parties. I have family and friends in Devon where there is now an Independent run council - candidates ran mainly on local issues but seem quite PV-friendly.

My concern for the European elections is that we have the Brexit Party and many voters who didn't vote today might want to make a point - especially given the level of defeat by the 'remain parties' and so will turnout which could give a very different result

That's a good point, BXP will no doubt do well but if the tide in the UK has turned against Brexit then LD, CUK and Greens will have to score heavily, if their combined vote is significantly higher than BXP/Cons then Brexit should be called off.

One thing for certain: these EU elections are going to be some of the most hotly contested in years.

I am amazed UKIP did not do better.

The places with the lowest turnouts do seem more likely to be leave strongholds.

I think this is true, and it should maybe mute the celebrations a bit, but OTOH I really find it hard to believe that people who didn't turn up to vote at the council elections - for candidates who will serve a full term - will pitch up to vote for MEPs who may only serve a few weeks or not at all.

Especially as more Brexit party skeletons emerge - Claire Fox's IRA-supporting history is now in the online version of the Daily Mail, and there is a similar scandal about to break in London.

Low turnout in my area which is a Leave stronghold +++. I think they will turn out for the EU elections for the Brexit Party because it is an opportunity to stick the middle finger up at ... well, people like me, I suppose.

How many seats did the Tories contest this time?

Badbad
www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ceeqy0e9894t/england-local-elections-2019
Shows held and lost and thus contested (allowing for about 100 boundary change that to my knowledge all hit the Tories)

Low turnout in my area which is a Leave stronghold +++. I think they will turn out for the EU elections for the Brexit Party because it is an opportunity to stick the middle finger up at ... well, people like me, I suppose.

So why did the UKIP vote collapse? I know they didn't have candidates everywhere, but even where they did, hardly anyone voted for them.

doh, don't mind me. Think it's time for sleep. 4 hours sleep in 40 hours makes for a dim kittten.

thanks talkin!

I think most Scots see through wee Ruthie 's naked ambition and find hilarious that she believes that she will be the next FM after the 2021 Holyrood elections

UKIP vote collapsed because everyone Leave minded is waiting for Nige.

I am amazed UKIP did not do better.

I suspect that they don’t do much locally - which will be partly to blame for them losing so many seats. I imagine Leavers want a local councillor who actually does something other than bang on about Brexit.

So why did the UKIP vote collapse
What they do to women?
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/may/03/woman-claims-tommy-robinson-ally-broke-her-nose-at-cheshire-event

We'll see. Colour me sceptical.

Someone on twitter just made the interesting point that the LD/Green success was achieved without London (which dominated the English remain vote in the referendum).

The audience was very Peoples Vote and Remainy; kept applauding Bartley.

Shah apologised for the audience as 'self selecting' at the end of the broadcast

So what's the excuse for the BBC Question Time audiences?

Someone on twitter just made the interesting point that the LD/Green success was achieved without London (which dominated the English remain vote in the referendum).

That’s a great point. I’d forgotten that these elections were England minus London

Not all of England

We didnt have any

My council looks younger, more female and more politically diverse now. Some long-standing Tory men are gone. This could be a breath of fresh air to councils...

So, thoughts:
Does JC now realise he wouldn’t win an election?
Will Labour have an epiphany and campaign for the 23rd on a pro-EU ticket?
Will LD, CUK and Greens come to an accommodation of co-operation to maximise seats?
Will revelations surface about the suitability of some Brexit Party candidates? And would that make any difference to their supporters?
Will any MPs defect from their parties?
Will Gavin be exonerated?
Will TM be toppled, to be replaced by someone worse?
Will Led By Donkeys return?
Will Boris be economical with the truth?
And will the atmosphere become more unpleasant?

The next three weeks - all very exciting (and stressful).

I want to go back to boring times now. I’ve had enough. I’m tired.

Have you morphed into TM,

I thought they'd appreciate that touch.

I considered standing as an Independent and I’m not particularly swivel-eyed, plus no real burning issues to attach oneself to round here, and on the whole local councillors of all shades doing decent jobs.

You'd have my vote Born as an Independent or otherwise.

the LD/Green success was achieved without London (which dominated the English remain vote in the referendum).

This is a very,^^ very good point.

(Of course there was just the one Tory vote in London. Boris voted here- well his swiftly deleted tweet said that he had just done so- odd as there were no polling stations.)

Sounds like some sort of Lib Dem / Greens partnership went on in Oxfordshire. Know more Peregrina ?

Could this work in the EU vote?

mobile.twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1124250485299535878