Westminstenders: Chaos

[RedToothBrush]

If anyone says they know what will happen this week....

... They don't.

if 7000 people signed the petition and the mps majority was 3000 but 30000 voted for the mp, wouldn’t the mp just assume that the 3000 didn’t come from the 30000 that voted for them?

If the majority is 3000 it only needs 1501 to lose the seat. An MP can't be sure who those 1500 are. Especially if their constituents were close to 50:50 Leave:Remain, which many were.

The weird thing is that the higher the leave vote, the higher the majority, as far as I can see, for both Labour and Conservatives.

DGR as I read it the EU Commission (publicly) presents no-deal as the default position on 12 April, rather than requiring an express vote:

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-1813_en.htm

Is there reason to think they have something different up their sleeves?

DGR as I read it the EU Commission (publicly) presents no-deal as the default position on 12 April, rather than requiring an express vote: europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-1813_en.htm Is there reason to think they have something different up their sleeves?

I don't know ... I'm just contemplating a situation where we get to the 13th (?) and "no deal" which leads to the spontaneous and well-deserved disintegration of the Tory party as they then slug it out in an Alice-in-Wonderland non-Leadership election, and we slide towards a GE which dumps them and returns a less extreme HoC with an appetite for rejoin .... at which point the EU fudge fairy "discovers" that no rejoin is needed as technically we never left ... who'd have thunk it.

Or, if situations were reversed, and it was Germany going through this and the rest of the EU (including the UK) could see it was clearly the work of nutters, wouldn't we try and find a way to insulate Germany from it's own nutters ? I think that because one constant in the past two years has been the EUs express desire to prevent the people of the UK (the ones Theresa May wants to feel pain) from the worst outcomes of their leaders vainglory ?

Remember: last week, Theresa May sat while the EU had to organise everything - she has no idea what they were doing on any level.

I don't know ... I'm just contemplating a situation where we get to the 13th (?) and "no deal" which leads to the spontaneous and well-deserved disintegration of the Tory party as they then slug it out in an Alice-in-Wonderland non-Leadership election, and we slide towards a GE which dumps them and returns a less extreme HoC with an appetite for rejoin .... at which point the EU fudge fairy "discovers" that no rejoin is needed as technically we never left ... who'd have thunk it.

I was wondering similar - we "No Deal" crisis hits, we have a taste of it (enough to show leavers that it wasn't project fear) and just long enough for some legal beavers to get the antidote through Court. I know there are plenty of them in the pipeline but they have been considered too slow to process within the short time frame. Just running out for parent/teacher meeting so can't find an example - sure someone can remember!

If we don't sign up to take part in EU elections by the 12th, we are out.

I must say I rather think that if we’re taken off the cliff in April after all the negotiations for a deal which TM shook hands on, not to mention the flextension they went out of their way for us on, I rather suspect that the answer to “can we come back” would be “get to the back of the queue”.

Oops - should have proofread that.

But I honestly think it would take years of diplomacy to get to a position where they could trust us to act in good faith in any rapprochement.

From what I have read the eu really doesn’t want us to leave so hopefully would support a deal which keeps us in the SM and CU if that is what is decided to go for. Obviously that, or anything else except revoke, would require a longer extension.
The stumbling block is the eu elections. I can’t see any way round that but surely the lunatics who took over the asylum are aware of that.
That’s why I think the eu should be made aware of, and possibly involved in, the decision making sooner rather than later.
Hope this makes sense. All this angst is playing havoc with my, usually disturbed anyway, sleep.

If we don't sign up to take part in EU elections by the 12th, we are out.

The EU can outdo the UKs West Country for fudge if they need to. You don't get 27 countries agreeing otherwise. Besides, the UK "rejoining" but without MEPs might be seen a suitable chastisement to mollify more cross members.

Funny, isn't it ? Thick leaver MPs can spout reams of bollocks and no one sees any flaws in them. Committed remainers walk half a pace behind doing their best to minimise the damage and they get the third degree At least I've had 4 more ideas in this thread alone than the entire cabinet managed in 2 years. All for fucking free, too. Although admittedly what the fuck would I do with a salary of £60,000 a year ? What with disability aids being so cheap ?

Tusk
As regards Brexit, the European Council formalised last night's decisions by the EU27 and the UK, to delay the cliff-edge and allow for an extension. Personally, I am really happy about this development. As I said yesterday, it means that until the twelfth of April, anything is possible: a deal, a long extension – if the UK decided to re-think its strategy – or revoking Article 50, which is a prerogative of the UK Government. The fate of Brexit is in the hands of our British friends. We are, as EU, prepared for the worst, but hope for the best. As you know, hope dies last. Thank you.

Revoke is probably pushing it. So, what is the plan?

Re-think strategy:
For a long extension we have to, I repeat, HAVE TO take part in the EU elections, and commit to that by 11th April.
Give the EU a glimmer of what we do want.
Accept that the WA will not be reopened.

Can anyone find a hint of a positive workable plan?

Oh and the backstop will stay exactly where it is, because nobody trusts the UK.

EU stance

"Freedom of expression is fundamental right in EU. We saw the very telling images of the march. We take note of petition(#RevokeArticle50). UK gov is our interlocutor. As long as UKgov does not tell us otherwise, we're working on presumption UK will leave EU"

You’re underselling yourself DGR - MPs will get £79k per year from April 1st.

"I think Varadkar secretly wants no deal brexit, just to piss off the DUP."

Don't know much about Irish history or politics if you think this.

the weird thing is the higher the leave vote is, the higher the majority.....

I noticed that and suspect that the reason is to do with feeling disenfranchised, and as though your voice isn't heard and your vote doesn't count if you live in a very safe seat of either persuasion. This certainly holds true in my area, both in terms of my current constituency (Tory safe seat ERG MP) and my former one (labour safe seat MP a long standing incumbent former minister).

I wondered about that border thing too, but I think TM said yesterday that it wouldn't be permanent. There was also a comment about checks away from the border which I wondered whether they meant in the Irish sea, without saying it out loud.

I think they thought they would have to up checks as we signed deals with the US and so on, whereas at the beginning we'd still be aligned.

dragons I think this is the key in that article:

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Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar signlaled he’s confident some special arrangement can be found to keep border in Ireland invisible in a no-deal Brexit.

Ireland is hoping to win a special deal with both the U.K. and EU that would keep the border with Northern Ireland open if the U.K. leaves the bloc without a withdrawal deal. The frontier will be the only land crossing between the EU and U.K. after Brexit, and how to keep it open has become a key stumbling block in talks between the two sides.

“The U.K. government has already indicated that in the event of no deal the first thing they will do is treat Northern Ireland differently in terms of customs,” Varadkar said in an RTE Radio interview on Sunday. “That’s what will be required essentially”^

He is assuming that if it gets to no deal the UK will be forced to accept what is basically a backstop deal in order to avoid tariffs and keep the border open. That's my reading anyway.

Sorry. That pasted more od the article than I meant to. Should have just been this bit:

“The U.K. government has already indicated that in the event of no deal the first thing they will do is treat Northern Ireland differently in terms of customs,” Varadkar said in an RTE Radio interview on Sunday. “That’s what will be required essentially”

I think they thought they would have to up checks as we signed deals with the US and so on, whereas at the beginning we'd still be aligned

No deal with the US will be signed until the border issue is sorted and the GFA intact. If that takes 10 years, then it takes 10 years.

May addressing the 1922 committee at 5pm tomorrow says Tom Newton Dunn on Twitter. Apparently, she'll give a date for her resignation, let's see...

“The U.K. government has already indicated that in the event of no deal the first thing they will do is treat Northern Ireland differently in terms of customs,” Varadkar said in an RTE Radio interview on Sunday. “That’s what will be required essentially”

Which the Tory party is perfectly happy to do - and would have by now. But we return to needing the DUP who by now are entrenched against such a move. Especially as they know a united Ireland makes everything so much easier, and isn't the fantasy it may have been 20 years ago.

May addressing the 1922 committee at 5pm tomorrow says Tom Newton Dunn on Twitter. Apparently, she'll give a date for her resignation, let's see..

Bet she doesn't (too )