Westminstenders: Flextension

[RedToothBrush]

Just wrote an intro and wiped it. So this is as quick as I can sum up.

EU response is extension to 22nd May if May passes her deal by 29th March

Or an unconditional extension to 12 April which could be extended with a plan and understanding to take part in EU elections.

This isn't what may wanted. It gives her less time and leverage

It opens up the possibility of her being ousted as PM in the next couple of days. Graham Brady asked her to quit on Monday. Remain Cabinet ministers are threatening to quit if May whips a vote to support no deal.

The talk is May has indeed flipped to supporting no deal with many think she's pretty much gone full on Colonel Kurtz.

The EU are in effect supporting parliamentary sovereignty and are being incredibly reasonable.

May now has to decide whether to accept.

The whole situation looks explosive and likely that one half of the cabinet or the other are on the brink of walking. And May's power is so shattered.

However she remains the gatekeeper and as it stands if she's hell bent on no deal, it will be extremely difficult for Parliament to prevent that.

Fluffy There won't be a PV - and certainly not a Revoke - until sufficient MPs accept there is no cake PD out there.
Revoke and PV have not had enough support in the past

As for persuading the EU about a long extension for PV, they have repeatedly said that they would give the time we need
BUT
they would want to know which alternatives we are putting before the public
because if MPs again insist on a unicorn, then the EU will refuse extra time

Unspecific referendums on ANY topic are dangerous - those countries which successfully use referendums specify clearly all the options

Any PV must have a clear definition of leave, because a blanket unspecified Leave was why they won last time - Leave promised different things to different people

Packing up for the march now. I am amazed at the response I’m hearing from my social circle. After months and months of no-one being especially worried or worked up about how Brexit was going, there are people joining us today who I don’t think have ever been on any sort of protest before. Amazing. Let’s go!

All the best to everyone marching today. I cant go but if anyone needs help about things London related pls message me.

Loving the posters . And yay 2bees !!

Which is where the briefing comes in. If you must have a vote about leaving options in the house, then it must just be those options the EU has given us, not those which we are making up. And it's a separate vote to the 'what course are we following?' vote.

I think we fundamentally are agreeing (that we can't vote for cake).

Essentially, the house just need to know what the options are before voting on the next steps, not what they want them to be. And potentially vote on which OF THE AVAILABLE options they want (not a vote for cake, in other words).

Bear No

The WA cannot be changed

• the EU keep repeating this.

Believe them

Only the PD - the framework for the future direct can be changed
That is the realisation (finally !) by MPs that Anna Soubry was referring to on C4

The WA covers the "housekeeping" requirments for A50, the mechanics of leaving
Those things don't change:
expat rights, exit bill, backstop - they can't trust us

plus several other important matters such as continuing Intellectual Property rights,
which also took a huge amount of work to settle.

I think the misunderstanding of what the WA is, is staggering. It does not set out our relationship with the EU. It only sets out the terms of transition. Therefore we can have the WA AND stay in the customs union and single market OR we can have the WA And have a very loose and more distant relationship with the EU. This has never been decided.

The thing the ERGers object to is the backstop, as its effect is to tie us more closely to the EU than they like. It basically prevents us being a tax haven or Americas unregulated bitch.

The one thing the WA gets rid of is our rights in Europe and our political voice in Europe and all its various bodies as we would no longer be part of or represented in European Parliament or by our PM and other cabinet ministers where relevant or any other institution. We as Brits would have lesser status than EU citizens.

The only way we can retain those is to remain in the EU.

MPs have spent over a year arguing over the fact that they didn’t realise what leaving the EU actually means because they don't understand the A50 process and how we have another stage deciding what our relationship with the EU and our trading arrangements should be going forward.

In effect the WA is the political separation whilst retaining the legal and economic links temporarily. The next step is to address the legal and economic relationship.

If you want to leave the EU you have two choices: Deal or No Deal. That's it.

That doesn't dictate our future economic relationship.

The fact that MPs don't understand this and the media has supported their inaccurate understanding is the UK's ultimate failing as a functioning country. We do not understand what the heck we are even trying to do.

You have to wonder just how many MPs have read the WA. Much less understood it.

If the penny has only just dropped with Soubry (who I know has read much more than most) I despair.

The EU are exasperated with us, precisely because we haven't listened to a damn word they've said in 3 years because we've been too busy with our head up our arse reading the newspapers, arguing with each other and thinking we know what we are talking about when we clearly don't.

No one MP who voted for A50 had a clue what they were doing. Not one. They just did it because of threats and fear.

And the story of A50 and how MPs don't understand how things work is only replicated throughout the country on a day to day basis in a whole myraid of issues at local government level, through the NHS, through the justice system, through education and everything else.

And when people talk of the Westminster bubble this is what they mean. The complete detachment from how things work in practice on the ground.

Anyway have fun everyone marching today. Sorry I couldn't make London. I'm not sure about Liverpool yet.

I will look out for toothbrushes! Get a toothbrush on tv!!!

Bearbehind That makes sense, about the EU reopening the WA if redlines dropped.

I'm starting to confuse myself now! Its all rather complicated. Hope the MPs understand it more than me.

Welcome Cumberlover76

Loved this bit of the Plymouth Herald article you linked to about the Brexit protest.....

a "disappointing" turn out, which swelled from a crowd of eight to a throng of around a dozen

fluffy I disagree, because the HoC must be forced into a specific choice

The HoC need to know if their desired PD option would pass.

Otherwise, many will hold out for something that won't pass
i.e. will vote down Revoke or PV

Also, the EU will not trust us to specify a valid Leave PD option in a PV until this option is actually passed by the HoC

They would not give any extension with just the hope that the HoC would have a majority for any of them

I don't recall them saying they want to know the question we would ask though. But it has been busy and I was on codeine for a month or so which made me fuzzy!

Can you link to that, BCF?

Marmot
The EU will NOT reopen the WA

They keep telling us this.
Please listen to them

What they will reopen is the PD, the framework for the future relationship

I'm saying they can't vote on cake. I'm not sure how much clearer I can be on that.

I think the misunderstanding of what the WA is is staggering

Thanks for the patronising comment 🤔

The EU have said the WA cannot be reopened unless the red lines change.

Barniers ladder of options covered what could have been possible.

If we’d not ruled out every other choice surely the WA would be different.

For instance, if we been happy to remain in the SM and CU we would not need the backstop.

PMK - I’ve got some catching up to do.

(I am on the train to London. I’ll be marching today).

Thanks prettybird it's a funny article. I laughed at the woman saying her kids should move abroad and that police nearly outnumbered protesters!

Have fun today all.

mrslaughan you describe many of my neighbours who voted Leave. Not all: we have one currently awaiting trial following the violence at a pro-Brexit demo and, of course, not all voted Leave.

I won’t condemn those who believed the lies that their lives would be better.

The liars? Well, I hope Tusk’s Hell has enough room for them!

fluffy They keep saying the HoC must make up its mind
They want specific choices
The problem throughout is that the HoC has just wanted "something else, not on offer"

It is very obvious that the EU will not blindly grant an extension for a PV without knowing what the options will be
(not the exact wording of course)

or indeed risk that the HoC will not have a majority for any of the Leave options, which would mean the PV can never be called

They aren't prepared to waste another 9-12 months on the HoC refusing to choose

The EU don't work on blind faith and they have certainly learned not to trust that the HoC will sort things out

Vince Cable said that Teresa May said last week, ‘the people voted for pain!’ (So DH just told me!)

Is this true?! Why isn’t this on the front pages?

Ok so my 8.49 post crossed with Red's. Thanks that was a useful summary.

Bear - I don't think RTB was patronising you/ us. Shes talking about the politicians.

Loved that Twitter thread in response to the Labour tweet. It really gives me hope to see responses like that. I think that the numbers on the march will be astronomical

But as I can’t be there, I really hope that the Labour Party come and knock on my door today... 😈

Thanks for the patronising comment 🤔

I was talking about the MPs whose job it is to know!

Not anyone here.

Bear NO. The EU have repeatedly said the WA can NOT be reopened

but that there could be renegotiation on the future relationship if we drop red lines
The future relationship is in the PD, not the WA

The WA is basically housekeeping, plus the backstop

Soubry's C4 statement reveals that she at least finally gets this.
Hopefully most other MPs do too. Finally.

The sticking point of the WA has been the backstop
That will NOT be removed, weakened or time-limited, even if the HoC votes for SM+CU

... because the EU know they cannot trust the govt / HoC to renege the minute after the backstop is removed

The reason for the Brexiters' hatred of the backstop is that it stops them reneging ... without serious international legal & political consequences

Good luck to all marchers today. Hope it's a massive turnout. I'd loved to have gone, but am sadly working :(

I'll watch out for Cornish flags and red toothbrushes!

I don't think RTB was patronising you/ us. Shes talking about the politicians.

Maybe.

I’d still like to see a source which states that, if the red lines changed the WA still couldn’t / wouldn’t.

I understand the EU won’t renegotiate whilst we won’t cross TMs red lines, but if we committed to CU/SM (unlikely I know) the WA could change couldn’t it?