Westminstenders: Distract and divert. Just close your eyes.

[RedToothBrush]

This morning Jeremy Hunt declared that, 'With vision on both sides we can find a way through that has the support of Parliament and also works for the EU'

Of course this is 18th February 2019 and the UK has yet to demostrate they understand the problem, much less have the vision to solve it. And we leave the EU next month.

It needs to be stressed at this point: DON'T FORGET TO FOCUS ON WHAT REALLY MATTERS

Everything else is a tactic to make you close your eyes and miss what is really going on. Everything. Brexit looks increasingly like a hypnotist making their subject do ever increasing acts of ridiculousness on stage. Except I do not know if the public or the politicians are that poor sod. It is the magician who uses tricks of slight of hand to make you look the wrong way, whilst they makes all the big moves out of your vision.

There are so many stories that are coming out to try and make you miss what the government are failing to do. Stay focused. We can't ignore all these stories, but understand whether they are really important to the end game too.

A labour split, a march on the 23rd March, talk of a PV, the Brady amendment, the Malthouse Compromise, Cooper-Boles halting no deal?

No we need more than that.

The time for fantasies are gone. Its time to face reality and be pragmatic. The only thing that matters is the approaching cliff. Which we will go over not on the 29th March but in the next couple of weeks. We might not realise the ground disappearing beneath our feet at first. Our momentum as we go forward will carry for a short while before gravity kicks in.

But we can not defy the laws of physics and suddenly be able to fly because we develop magic superhuman powers of vision.

And no one will come to save us either.

Our national humilation will be total, if we don't acknowledge what is coming and stop.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Brexit Abbreviation Thread

Some more subtext to Brexit - countries want their history back. The irony of us "taking control" continues.

James Acaster did a brilliant routine about this ... centred around not only nicking stuff, but then putting it on show (and charging for it) with a little caption explaining how important it was to you and your culture ... it's one of his NetFlix specials.

And what farmers think of the viability of lamb after Brexit complete with music better suited to Pidgeon Street

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-food-shortage-supermarket-british-leeks-a8785951.html?amp&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Brexit food shortages could see people forced to eat 'tons of British leeks', supermarket boss says
'Provided we’re all happy to live on Spam and canned peaches, all will be well'

I'm growing leeks for the first time this year. May have to increase the amount I was planning to grow.

I'm having advanced sympathy for anyone working in a supermarket. I think I'd just have some signs put up saying "If you voted Leave, please refrain from complaining about shortages".

On the whole I'd say university probably isn't a bad place to be if the shit really hits. Unis tend to take care of their students. They have support services and food facilities on site and I would expect them to be pretty aware of the risks if only because they are so worried about losing international students. I don't personally think it'll get so bad universities actually have to shut down completely. If things get than bad than we are at complete civilization collapse stage.

I consider my uni place to be a safer bet right now than any job I'd be likely to get.

I can't eat leaks or any alliums.

I fecking hate leeks....And onions, onions are also bad for people who need to be a FOD map diet.

I guess it's spam and peaches for you then Bigly.

BiglyBadgers hope you’re right, as DS’s uni term doesn’t finish until 5th April. I have warned him to keep some food stocks in, just in case. It makes life easier for me too, as he can empty the fridge in a day.

Nice to get a glimpse of the black humour of the corporate mind. They’re just like us really.

OK, so now the question is are both main political parties really on the brink of collapse?
Well both TM and JC are still here despite the complete f*up of brexit. It beggars belief really that they are still here. What do you all think? Will both labour and Tories finally collapse or will it just be labour? Which one will survive wholly or will they both change radically?
Or do you wish Guy Fawlkes was around?

Hester I think it's worth reflecting on

1. Labour were already behind in the polls. And even if they won an election it would be as a minority. A majority would be highly unlikely as things stand.
2. Polls show that if Corbyn or the Labour Party were seen to enable Brexit (particularly no deal) then there was a possible collapse in the Labour vote most likely to the LDs.
3. At this stage the Labour vote on Brexit is already utterly fragmented with significant numbers of all tribal affiliations voting as they saw fit and not necessarily with the whip and the whip has been less than strict at times anyway.
4. Luiciana Berger's treatment in particular looks like it was orchestraed in a manner to force her out one way or another. The thing is, deliberately forcing out an MP in this fashion isn't just forcing out an individual. Berger is representative of a group with similar points of view. Even if Berger stayed, there is no guarantee that people who are Jewish or just share some of her opinions would stay anyway.
5. Polling has shown rising apathy and frustration with Labour because of various issues. Whilst being on MN it is often an echo chamber of thought, but you can see those feelings being widely manifested. People who openly said they voted Labour at the last election, even reluctantly or because the alternative was simply the Tories are saying different things.
6. The hope and optimism that Corbyn managed to inspire at the GE has evaporated and been replaced by disillusionment. The idea that he could recapture that mood and feeling and motivate people to vote Labour in the same way is the stuff of fantasy. The moment has passed. You can feel the mood change. The centre left matter hugely, and a depressed centre left are as much of a problem as a split centre left.
7. Things with the LDs are equally depressing. There is a lot of disillusionment going on there. There is also raising factionalism, and groups with 'the wrong views' actively being told to leave the party. Leadership has been none existant (or just plain AWOL) and the party lack any idea of what they now stand for apart from being pro-EU. The understanding of the concept of liberalism has plummeted even within their ranks.
8. This morning polling is suggesting that the TIGGERS are pulling support firmly from the centre and looks to be hurting the LDs more than Labour and the Cons. From what I've heard on the ground over the last few months locally, the LDs have been worried about the rise of Independent candidates at local level as it is.

Putting it all together, I do think that actually the polarisation of politics would have occurred with or without a split in the party. I think the left and centre as a whole would be depressed and unable to compete with a Tory Party which stays together. Indications were always that the Tories despite their differences are more likely to stay united unless there was 'an event'. Purging of dissenters is inevitable from both parties and this will have an effect on the voting patterns of natural centrists and the more Liberal minded left and right winged voices.

Will it help the Tories in the long run? I'm not sure it matters hugely as I think with how things were going the Tories getting a majority with the help of the DUP could well be on the cards anyway, and voices like Grieve and Soubry would be removed to solve problems in the HoC. As long as there is a working majority in the HoC for the Tories who loyally stick to the party line, the size of the majority they have isnt necessarily as important as its made out. Its 5 years of doing whatever the fuck they like.

At least this attempt gives a platform for dissenters which might get more media coverage. This matters. It helps to shape the Overton window. It will force the LDs to pull their socks up, or might just damn them to total irrelevance (not necessarily the worst thing IMHO at thus point, they are doing a good job of it themselves) and it might spark some movement from the centre right too. Right now the LDs are getting precisely no media coverage. If the TIGGERS get more - even from Tory leaning newspapers to discredit Corbyn in someway or to shout 'haha look how shit the left are', you might have a 'reverse kipper effect' whereby 7 MPs get disproportionate media coverage.

I do feel that whilst TIGGERS might be blamed for splitting the left, the actions of Labour themselves were largely going to have the same effect in practice one way or another anyway.

And yes, at what point do you say, there was nothing left to lose? It's been a while coming but it seemed that there are lots of MPs who don't have a future in politics or don't see a future as it stands either way.

It's a situation that would have arisen at some point. The only big argument I might have is over timing. Sooner, later, right now? It does not matter anymore. Its done.

This morning Jeremy Hunt declared that, 'With vision on both sides we can find a way through that has the support of Parliament and also works for the EU'
I know this thread has moved on, but Jeremy Hunt's face said it all: he looked like one of the band that played on as the Titanic sank. The trouble is, we are running out of lifeboats.

Robin Harding @ RobinBHarding
A few thoughts from Japan on Honda's sad decision to close Swindon. (Honda will hold a press conference in Tokyo at 8am UK time.) There are two questions: why and why now? I think the answers are different. 1/

Why? Frankly, Swindon never made an adequate return for Honda. There's too much capacity in Europe and the situation got worse and worse as Honda’s market share fell. Output at 160k last year is sub-scale. It’s an obvious business decision to close it. 2/

However, Honda has avoided that obvious business decision for many years. Instead, they've tried everything possible to keep Swindon open, such as exporting to the US. 3/

Why now? Brexit promises to raise costs for parts and reduce access to the EU - fatal for an already marginal plant. More importantly, it gives a company that hates to close factories or sack people a license to act. 4/

The role of the EU-Japan trade deal is interesting. Britain pushed for the earliest possible reduction in EU auto tariffs, believing it would help Japanese assembly plants in the UK. There was some logic to this – if they had access to the EU market. 5/

German and French manufacturers always thought Japan would just move assembly home. With the UK outside the EU, the trade deal makes that easy. Past UK policy comes back to bite us. 6/

The next question is Toyota in Burnaston. That is an equally subscale plant. Business logic says Toyota should close it, but like Honda, they’ll try everything to make it work. I’m afraid the mood music from Toyota these days is not encouraging. 7/

It’s a tragedy really. Swindon was a huge investment, attracted with much difficulty, and started with high hopes. Once it’s gone it’ll never come back. I also wonder when we’ll hear the first UK voices calling for Trump-style protectionism. 8/8

Vauxhall in Ellesmere has similar issues but their owners are less diplomatic and less reluctant to avoid national politics than the Japanese. Vauxhall was going to go there regardless of Brexit. Brexit just makes a tipping point and investment in alternatives on British soil which might have happened impossible.

It's only a matter of time over when they will go. They are gone.

This is no deal. Even if we get a deal. Its done. Its too late.

I wish one of the supermarkets would start stickering anything that they expect shortages of in 7 weeks time. Just so that I start to imagine what my food shop is going to look like. Also to raise awareness amongst the adamant leavers.

Has Brexit had a measurable effect on the nation's mental health yet? I find increasingly I spend a small part of every day reading news and feeling anxious.

James Patrick @j_amesp
People seem to be unable to understand that companies wishing to sell you things will not call you stupid to your face.

Of course Honda will avoid the subject of Brexit as a reason for closing a factory...

And the Honda Civic market is well known for being young and trendy and remain leaning...

Could someone PLEASE explain to me why everyone still wants to vote Tory despite austerity, the current state of schools and the NHS, UC, and the pig’s ear they’re making of Brexit? I’m so confused!

In the meantime, I’m working on an idea for a new post-Brexit cooking show. Along the lines of Ready Steady Cook, but the celeb chefs just get given leeks, spam and tinned peaches with which to prepare a slap-up feast. This version also comes without the food cupboard supplies that they normally get to use. I can’t wait to see all the great ideas they come up with!

Could someone PLEASE explain to me why everyone still wants to vote Tory despite austerity, the current state of schools and the NHS, UC, and the pig’s ear they’re making of Brexit? I’m so confused!

Bit of "I'm all right Jack" mixed up with a slight sense of being superior ?

An equally valid question is to reverse the point and ask why, given all the points you make, aren't we seeing a Labour landslide in sight ?

queenofthorns sounds like the cooking show sketches on Horrible Histories - they have participants from different historical eras but they usually only have rats, stale bread etc to work with.

And Pernille Rudlin makes the following points:

@Pernilleru

Arguing about whether Honda decision is or isn't to do with Brexit is pointless. 1. Such decisions are always multi factor. 2. Companies will give the reason most palatable to govts, employees, shareholders 3. Being part of a wider network like 🇪🇺 wd have made 🇬🇧 more resilient.

Queen if you’re allowed a bit of sugar then there is a recipe out there for brown rice salad with peaches and caramelised leeks

Arguing about whether Honda decision is or isn't to do with Brexit is pointless.

The bigger question is what effect will Brexit have - if any - on the subsequent fortunes of Swindon ? While the UK was in the EU, it's likely there would have been interest in investment. The acid test for post-Brexit Britain is how quick and how much any investment is now ?

The absence of any Brexiteers from Swindon says more than they could had they bothered to turn up.

Unfortunately tinned peaches are also very high fodmap. I could probably get away with a moderate amount of fresh, but tinned is a 'no' from my guts. I haven't tried spam. Maybe I should start introducing it into my diet as part of brexit prepping.

This is why I have a food stash. I think I need to make it bigger though. Time to get in some more tinned tomatoes I think.