Does anybody still think Brexit will be good for the economy?

[KennDodd]

This was one of the Leave promises.

I definitely think that this is the beginning of a dark period of history.

I find it odd when people don't trust the impact assessments that the government tried to keep quiet. Yet on the other hand clearly trust the government in other respects?

It is obvious that the government is being driven by the ERG and supported by the DUP . Both groups have selfish agendas. They do not care if the country's overall economy shrinks -all they want is short term gain for their respective groups either by payouts or from lowering corporation tax, goods standards and workers rights.

Millyonethe
{Love that chart Lonely.
"Government reports" however are pure speculation and not worth the paper they are printed on. }

So you say this but are blindly following the words of the ERG who have a strong vested interest in crashing the UK out of the EU.
I presume you are an Italian with strong connections to the trade, maybe an Ambassador or trade union official perhaps that has read and understands the relationship between trade and the EU.
Or are you, like most of us pretty much an 'internet random'?

I am an internet random, but I do a lot of business in Italy and it is a country I love and respect.
I did not realise that you had to be an Ambassador to post an opinion on Mumsnet.

I don't believe in "crashing the UK out of the EU" but I do believe in leaving the EU because I think the EU project is wrongheaded and doomed. 10 years ago I would have preferred to stay in and reform it but I no longer believe that is possible. This opinion is not an extreme one, it is shared by lots of people in this country - although not on these threads because normal people get fed up of posting in what is a rather deranged echo chamber for worst case scenario prepper-type doom-mongering remainers.

As a prepper, I would like you to point to the "deranged echo chamber for worst case scenario prepper-type doom-mongering remainers."

Our economy grew to be the 5 th largest in the world as a member of the EU. There are no signs it will rise to 4 th , 3rd or higher by leaving.

There are no signs of boom, no new investment, no positive signs at all. All the signs are negative Businesses failing.

If the EU had shown signs of failure the leading partners, us Germany, France would have reformed or disbanded it- at that time. The way we have chosen , their economies grow and ours is left behind and is shrinking daily.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTIPx0lI6pb-3Tn-3D6uNJNyKcCd-A8uPMxViagyJAR9T87ZmnSdAEPCzp5ljlNYoUNdxJiJqQdBm7b/pubhtml

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTIPx0lI6pb-3Tn-3D6uNJNyKcCd-A8uPMxViagyJAR9T87ZmnSdAEPCzp5ljlNYoUNdxJiJqQdBm7b/pubhtml

Italy’s problems are not all linked to the euro, there’s a fundamental clunkiness in institutions, medioeval bureocracy, and ingrained reluctance to pay taxes that makes the official figures very difficult to trust. The “underground” economy still thrives and explains why everybody in the country complains, but then the motorway is just a single queue every summer weekends, full of people still going to enjoy their days out, at restaurant etc...it might be officially in recession but the reality in much more nuanced. And families do NOT have debt. Major, major difference. A 90% mortgage is kind of against religion, there....

However, I do believe that Brexit will be good for the economy in the longterm because more democracy = more prosperity.

So, Millyonth how long do you think it will take to achieve 'more democracy'? Actually, how would you define 'more democracy'? And how does 'more democracy' lead to 'more prosperity'? Genuinely interested in your answers to this.
In terms of prosperity, the government's own impact assessments point to the UK being worse off under every Brexit scenario; it's just a question of degrees. I do appreciate that you've said 'longterm' but what do you mean by that? Five years? Ten? Fifty? It seems like quite a gamble, particularly in a world that is threatened by other changes (ever increasing globalisation, the impact of AI on jobs, environmental catastrophe etc).

@Millyonthe

Do you dismiss all government reports, or indeed all expert reports, or just the ones accessing the economic impact of Brexit?

Millyonthe
UK government has 'spent' around £80 Billion on Brexit so far. Whose pockets / purses do you think this will be coming from?

The answer to the question is NO.

That is not to say that no-one could be better off. If you are a tax-dodging billionaire you might make a killing by buying up the assets of all the businesses that go bust. It is called "disaster capitalism" and I am sure that some of these vultures are Tory donors, arch-brexiters and if the brexit nonsense is not stopped, they will be laughing all the way to the bank.

No-one knows because it depends on how well we adapt to the new order. There is a huge range of possible outcomes. Having a good government in place that promotes and supports business is the single most important factor so that's a reason to be pessimistic for me, but I do believe strongly in the resourcefulness of the British and I think the economy can withstand it. I'm more worried about the state of government than the economy.

If the EU had shown signs of failure the leading partners, us Germany, France would have reformed or disbanded it- at that time.
Why do people assume that the German/French governments are better or stronger than ours? They really aren't. There are signs of failure within the EU construct but they cannot disband it without writing off the unsecured debt of about £800 Bn reflected in the unsettled Target balances, owed mostly by Italy and Spain to Germany, which is not included in any of the debt ratios (rules based order anyone?). Their hands are tied.

Let's not forget that JRMs Father was profoundly attached to disaster capitalism; he even wrote a book about it and insisted the welfare state would become too expensive to fund.

He brought JRM up believing that only the most talented, self-reliant, technologically adept sovereign individual would thrive in our society- survival of the fittest at the expense of the plebs.

That's what people don't seem to get -the agenda of those behind Brexit is not to save the NHS. It is the opposite. There is deep deep resentment by ERG types about the costs of healthcare -expenditure accounted for 79.4% of total spending, £152.2 billion in 2016 etc.

Rees Mogg (like his Dad) thinks that free health care is something the rich should not subsidise.

If you look at his voting record he consistently voted for removing housing benefit , against raising welfare benefits in line with prices. Plus he voted against higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to disability and voted for a reduction in spending on welfare benefits.

Plus voted for reducing corporation tax and against increasing taxes for those earning over £150,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/nov/09/mystic-mogg-jacob-rees-mogg-willam-predicts-brexit-plans

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/bulletins/ukhealthaccounts/2016

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24926/jacobrees-mogg/northheastsomerset/votes