Does anybody still think Brexit will be good for the economy?

[KennDodd]

This was one of the Leave promises.

I definitely think that this is the beginning of a dark period of history.

Singapore, the unhappiest country in SE Asia www.todayonline.com/singapore/singapore-workers-unhappiest-southeast-asia-survey

Well, it is great if you are in the top 10%. However, most of us are not.

BTW I loathed Singapore and am a hard remainer. But there are places that have transformed quickly so if we had really intelligent and forward-thinking politicians, rather than self-serving wannabe aristocrats, there might be a small chance of doing something good.

We would have to give up rights, work much harder, live very differently but could end up passably OK as a country. And almost no one sleeps on the streets in Singapore because the government builds all the housing imagine the Tories countenancing that.

Problem is neither the leavers nor the politicians seem to have a plan to do this. They want it, they can't deliver even the vaguest idea of how.

Singapore, the unhappiest country in SE Asia

Oddly, that's how I felt. Traveled around SE ASIA for a few months, arrived in Singapore, immediately hated it and felt rotten. Soulless, horrible place.

But something like that or Revoke, please Revoke seems to be the only light at the end of a very very long tunnel.

Why would we ever be anything like Singapore?
Just a better version of the UK is what I'm hoping for.

And how do you think that will happen? Please provide a detailed explanation as to how leaving the EU will enable this?

Hefzi

Mark Carney now does, based on yesterday's Telegraph

Yes I read that. I think the Telegraph were guilty of putting a very positive spin on his speech! But he is definitely sounding more positive.

But something like that or Revoke, please Revoke seems to be the only light at the end of a very very long tunnel.

Dear god, have you swallowed the blue bill? It's an exploitative society with some of the most repressive laws around.

No, it's not going to be good for the economy.

Well the daily express readers do. But then again people on their Facebook page think we should brick up the channel tunnel, so I’m slightly sceptical of their critical thinking skills.

Dear god, have you swallowed the blue bill?

I may have had a small nibble of it to try to see any possible way this isn't going to be an unmitigated disaster.

I mean maybe some of the lifeboats off the Titanic had a sing song and brought snacks? Maybe?

Mark Carney yesterday
In many respects, Brexit is the first test of a new global order and could prove the acid test of whether a way can be found to broaden the benefits of openness while enhancing democratic accountability. Brexit can lead to a new form of international cooperation and cross border commerce built on a better balance of local and supranational authorities.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/the-global-outlook-speech-by-mark-carney.pdf?la=en&hash=6725EA590D46F11FBFDFF4744E4E90158D4BCECE

It's difficult to be a dynamic economy when you have to get 28 countries to agree on every detail of things like farm subsidies and tariffs. It might be easier after Brexit.

This concise summary was from Valentine’s Day in the Scottish press. It is a concise clear article.

It shows Brexit is already costing Britain £800m a week or £80bn since EU referendum.

The Bank of E slashed its economic growth forecast last week as well as giving the clear recession warning (especially in the event of a no deal) it said there’d be "economic disruption, which could possibly be severe" it tried not to be alarmist but the figures were bleak.

Anyone can check on what the attached newspaper article said and what the B of E said in context by looking at the actual ONS data. All of the GDP data bear out that economic growth slowed worryingly in the fourth quarter of 2018.

One of the experienced external members of the bank's Monetary Policy Committee emphasised since the ref two per cent has already been shaved off GDP.

( This really gets me as Leave politicians still bang on about saving our membership fee but we have already lost just under three times more than our membership cost).

So we’ve lost £800 million per week or £40bn a year for the country as a whole.For what!!!

Business investment into the UK has collapsed to zero compared to our G7 former peers which have seen acceleration to six per cent a year.

“ Owen Smith described his figures as "eye-wateringly high" and warned that the NHS would suffer further as a result.
"Damaging our economy makes addressing these problems harder, not easier. It means less money for the NHS and our other national priorities.”

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17434006.brexit-is-costing-britain-800m-a-week-or-80bn-since-eu-referendum-says-bank-of-england-policymaker/

{It's difficult to be a dynamic economy when you have to get 28 countries to agree on every detail of things like farm subsidies and tariffs. It might be easier after Brexit.}

With the global economy, which isn't going away, you have to have established 'standards' for as much as possible. Doing your own thing, as a tiny country won't work.
In the UK there are a handful of school examination boards. In theory a prospective employer can see that a person has 8 GCSEs or whatever and be able to appreciate the capabilities of the applicant.
If there was a GCSE set by London, Reading, Birmingham, Cardiff, and 30 other local areas s which are not 'standardised' there is no knowing what the applicant is capable of.
The globalisation of so much industry almost make individual countries irrelevant. An attempt at making anything intended for mass market has to conform to 'global' regulations.
An 'improved' version of the UK would have been to stay in the EU, which only 6% of people were at all interested in, pre referendum, but to shake up government to make them invest in the parts of the UK that had been left behind. The shake up still needs to happen, more than ever, and to help it go backwards the UK has wasted £80 Billion and counting, and is destroying the viability of selling to the nearest neighbours.

"better balance of local and supranational authorities."

So... there would still be pooled sovereignty. Pooled sovereignty to gain economic advantage. Could have reformed the EU from within to achieve that.

Brexit is the first test of a new global order

Sounds like fascism to me.

MrsTerryPratchett
You reminded me of my 2 grandads in the war, I think Brexit is going to be the same...a bit crap for the rich and healthy and outright terrible for others.

Grandad 1, middle class - a bit grumpy he got conscripted and missed out on university, but spent the war safe as an officers clerk doing admin, had plenty of amusing stories to tell

Grandad 2, parents were peasant farmers - never spoke of it, all we know is that he once had to crawl out of a burning factory.

More Brexit bad news.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47267901

Grandad 2, parents were peasant farmers - never spoke of it, all we know is that he once had to crawl out of a burning factory.

I wont tell the story but my Gramps never spoke of the bad stuff except for a couple things that came out. Horrifying things. Hes tell stories about the lovely ANZACS and the untrustworthy South Africans and eating his way up Italy and the Italians shouting, ~per me la guerra e finita~. Funnily enough he loved Italy, even though he fought there, loved Europe. Glad he`s not alive to see this shit show.

My grandads were Italian, in 1943 when Italy was near surrendering and his superior officers ran away my grandad (1) wrote himself and everyone who asked official discharge papers and they all went home. I don't think they really wanted to be fighting either :)

Thinking about it, the Italians are a great example of a fairly nice people falling for a jingoistic, nationalistic wanker who made them feel better about their slightly reduced circumstances in the world...

Sound familiar?

Italians: the most brilliant, creative people you'll ever work with. Yet their economy has not recovered AT ALL since the crash. There are various reasons for their stagnation, but the primary suspect has to be the single currency, being trapped in the same exchange rate as Germany - a much stronger economy.

At least the EU was designed with an exit door, which we’re using, however incompetently.

The Euro has no exit door. Countries like Italy are trapped.

Their young people have to go North to find work which until recently has suited Germany (and the UK) just fine. The failure of the bonkers Eurozone project is all getting a bit too scary now though, even for EU zealots.

I suspect that most people have seen through the idea that Brexit will be good for the economy. That's why the trend of the pro-Brexit disinformation campaigns on social media seems to have switched from "things will be amazing if we leave" to "this terrible, evil thing will definitely happen if we remain" . Cf all the shite that I've seen over the past couple of weeks on Facebook and Twitter about a secret new Lisbon Treaty that comes into force next year - or a hidden provision in the existing Lisbon Treaty that is both legally binding and so ambiguous that only Brexiteers can find and interpret it - which will take away all our rights in the EU/ force us to join the Euro/ force our stock exchange to move to Germany next year/ prevent us having a Queen. They're not trying to tempt people with unicorns anymore, they're resorted to scaring us with the bogeyman in the closet.

Regarding Italy- This chart is from the world economic forum and shows the world's $80 trillion economy.

With the no deal many Leave politicians want, British GDP growth will be 8 percent lower over 15 years alone. This is according to the government’s own (eventually revealed) reports. So our economy will now shrink to be smaller than Italy’s. Of course unlike them we will no longer have the weight of the green coloured group behind us.

As members of the EU we thrived and punched above our weight.

Love that chart Lonely.
"Government reports" however are pure speculation and not worth the paper they are printed on. We had similar frightening reports about what would happen if we did not join the Euro.
And how exactly do you think Italy is helped by being in the green coloured group?
There are lots of successful countries in other colours!

I've just got back from Italy...bizarrely (considering our government)....it feels like a country that is going forward (based on the news - look at this sustainable factory!, adverts - look mixed race family!) Mind you, everyone has rose tinted glasses after holidays.