Will you be disappointed if Brexit goes smoothly

[Tawdrylocalbrouhaha]

Genuine question to the Preppers - how will you feel if Brexit goes through with no significant shortages or civil unrest? Will you heave a sigh of relief and sleep better at night, or feel a tiny bit flat and disappointed?

It's the slightly excited tone of some of the Prepper threads that has me wondering this. As if having a reason to hoard is fulfilling some squirrelesque instinct, which my be thwarted if the hoards prove unnecessary?

I only know 5 people who voted leave. Out of hundreds of people I know/come into contact with day to day. From my point of view it looks like hardly anyone wants to leave. And I do live 'in real life' lol!!!!

It will totally depend on who you know/associate with/the area of the country you live in etc

There is no 'most people'..... the country is massively split. Almost evenly down the middle. The only fact there is here is that vast swathes of people are going to be let down and angry whatever the outcome.

And you all obviously think that when it rains it must be because of Brexit.

And you think it's because of the EU.

I hope your soon-to-be-poorer friends in the NW enjoy whatever it is they think they will gain.

But MN is clearly pro remain.

Again, is MN entirely set in Scotland? 62% remain, actually a little over that. That's 'most' people, certainly a bigger margin than the whole leave advisory won by.

British Chambers of Commerce not happy.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47217801
I think I’ll get a few more items in.

On some ( by NO means all) of those threads there is an eager girl guide jolly hockey sticks vibe that I find profoundly naive and distasteful.

Damn those girl guides for being active and prepared and ready to face whatever comes with a positive attitude. They should be wailing and gnashing teeth, while professing that they have no idea what sensible precautions to take, rather than just getting on with things like people have had to for centuries.

You’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t on here.

It is pathetic that people are being slagged off for taking back control but just not in the new Brexit-y version of politically correct.
And, goddamnit for being cheerful rather than cowed.

Argh Brexit I’m so depressed I’m crying I can’t cope I don’t know what to do oh look a unicorn 🦄

Is that better?

Road Haulage Association unhappy about short supply of permits for operating in the EU. Their spokesman scathing on the radio (Today programme) this morning about lack of information or direction from government. Steve Barclay, Brexit Sec, unable to offer any clarity whatsoever.
www.rha.uk.net/getmedia/619b17f3-d810-49c4-a569-beea8ac5358c/190208-RHA-ECMT-Info-Note1.pdf.aspx
Think I'll get a few more bits in.

I’m confused about the haulage permits thing. Why are numbers so low?

It is pathetic that people are being slagged off for taking back control but just not in the new Brexit-y version of politically correct.

Exactly bellini - we've had almost three years of being exhorted to "Take Back Control" and "Think Positively" and "Why Don't You Remainers Come Up With Ideas And Do Things For Brexitannia, Leavers Have Done The Hard Work Of Putting a Cross In A Box And That's That" - so some people are obeying these demands, and it's still wrong. The wrong type of control, or the wrong positive thinking, and definitely the wrong ideas.

Dunno, other than each country gets a certain allocation and how on earth are the EU supposed to know what to do when we don't know if we are leaving with a deal or not?

The way they were then distributed was a bit complicated, but as it's far to few for the numbers needed under no deal I guess there were always going to be a lot of unhappy companies. (understatement)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/753828/ecmt-haulage-permits.pdf

There is some mitigation of a 9 month extension if we go no deal. But that basically seems to buy us some time? I can't work out if that extension is for all haulage.

As far as I understand it (which is not very much), all hauliers need a Community licence to operate any vehicle within the Single Market. Hauliers from EU member states are automatically (?) entitled to a licence and any paperwork is minimal (?), whereas the number of licences available for non-member states is limited and the process of obtaining one more complicated. This is because as non members they are not automatically bound by legislation regulating road haulage, as member states are. Continued divergence from EU legislation (as proposed by Brexiters) would probably make it harder rather than easier to obtain a licence.
Happy to be corrected on my understanding by someone more knowledgeable.

SalrycLuxx
You’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t on here.

Exactly. Because some of us are fearful of what might happen, and are trying to prepare 'just in case', we're accused of wishing the worst. Completely illogical. Reminds me of someone I used to know... he asked if he could have some concrete blocks left over from some building work I'd had done, and when I said Yes he came to collect them in a very old rusty trailer. I mentioned that the axle looked dodgy and it might be an idea not to overload, and was told I was very negative. The trailer didn't even make it as far as the gate. The axle split, and he had to hire another trailer to sort the mess out. Who was to blame, do you think? I was. His wife told me I'd spread negative vibes, which they seemed to believe had affected the fabric of the universe

Resentment that people are laying in provisions for fear of what might happen is viewed in the same way. And on top of that, we're accused of actually wanting the bad outcome we're dreading :(

'Preppers' aren't to blame for the decision about seasonal visas for agricultural workers. Instead of visas for some of the 30,000 European pickers who have come every year, from a similar climate, 2,500 visas are being provided for workers from Pakistan and East Asia Knowing that, why would you not stock up on frozen and tinned vegetables?

Continued divergence from EU legislation (as proposed by Brexiters) would probably make it harder rather than easier to obtain a licence.

Gosh, who could possibly have foreseen that.

I’ve heard that the lorries are going to be waved through so they don’t need permits.

You're literally damned if you don't and therefore have no food available so worth stocking up now whilst we can. I've just called my parents and had a very serious conversation with them about how they should listen to me rather than the Daily Mail. I think I got through to them.

If everything goes smoothly I'll have a stockpile of cosmetics to get through, so I'll save money for a while. And there will be quite a lot of tinned fruit to eat. But I've only bought stuff I like eating anyway, so it's not a big deal.

Dunno, other than each country gets a certain allocation and how on earth are the EU supposed to know what to do when we don't know if we are leaving with a deal or not?

The permits are nothing to do with the EU, they're issued by the ECMT.

There are 'so few' of them because they are (until Brexit) completely unnecessary for most hauliers. There were only 21 permits issued to UK operators last year.

They're only currently needed by UK hauliers who go to certain countries outside the EU, because as members we don't need them inside the EU.

Nobody seems to know why nobody arranged for our allocation of permits to increase for next year though, since it was a known issue over 2 years ago.

I can't work out if that extension is for all haulage.

Any UK vehicles (over 3.5t max weight) which would normally require an ECMT permit to operate in the EU after a 'no deal' Brexit won't need a permit until the end of the year.

I’ve heard that the lorries are going to be waved through so they don’t need permits.

This is incorrect.

The (misleading) report was that lorries are going to be waved through Customs, not that they wouldn't need ECMT permits.

As it happens they won't need permits until next year (and they probably won't just be waved through Customs, despite what you might read in the papers).

'Own account' hauliers (companies who move their own goods on their own vehicles) won't need an ECMT permit to operate in the EU after Brexit, so in theory they could circumvent any problems by operating their own fleets instead of using contractors, although that would often be a more expensive option because own-account operators often spend more time running empty.

...and wasn't the 'waving through' bit applying to British importers who are already registered for VAT, coming into Britain? They'll be doing the paperwork online AFAIK, to save delays in port.

I think it is extremely unlikely that Brexit will go smoothly and I am a hard core Remainer. However if by some miracle it works I will feel only relief. I don’t want me or anyone else to have to experience food and medicine shortages just to be proved right.

I feel the same as this poster. I'll be ok but my leave voting birth family may suffer if it goes wrong.

that would often be a more expensive option because own-account operators often spend more time running empty.

Which reminds me of one of the cost-bearing issues of the 'no-deal' plans for road haulage after Brexit.

There are 3 types of non-domestic journey covered by the EU's rules on road haulage:

1) International - For example a UK haulier collecting from the UK going to Italy or from Italy going to the UK.

2) Cross-trade - For example the UK haulier collecting from Italy and delivering to France on the way home.

3) Cabotage - For example the UK haulier collecting in Naples and delivering to Milan or collecting from Lyon and delivering to Calais.

Under ECMT rules journeys of type 1 are allowed, three follow-on journeys of type 2 are allowed (before returning to the UK) and no type 3 (cabotage) journeys.

Under the EU's 'no deal' extension (to enable UK HGVs to travel without ECMT permits) journeys of type 1 are allowed, most guidance seems to confirm that journeys of type 2 & 3 will not be allowed, although some people have suggested that type 2 work may be permitted.

EU hauliers will be given reciprocal rights in the UK. Over 80% of cross-channel road-freight is currently carried by EU27-registered hauliers.

Why is it important what type of loads trucks are allowed to carry? Take a truck collecting a full load in Manchester and delivering to Milan. If the truck wasn't able to collect other loads after delivery in Milan then the whole cost for the 2,000 mile return journey (and a week's work for the driver) would be borne by the customer requiring that delivery, increasing the haulage rates charged to customers by anywhere from 30-95%, depending on the haulage company's business model.

(I appreciate that most people aren't that interested in this stuff, which is why I try not to go on about it until somebody else mentions it).

The haulage industry (including industry bodies) are as much on the back foot as anybody else over this and I'm never absolutely certain that my current understanding hasn't been overtaken by some new announcement.

Thank you for that, FishesaPlenty. That makes a lot of things much clearer.