Chatham House: Europe’s take on Brexit
Important conclusions that the EU will NOT work with the UK on a "managed No Deal"
https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/europe-s-take-brexit
It is rare to find a European policy these days that the German chancellor, the French president and the prime ministers of Hungary, Italy, Poland and Sweden can all agree on.
Brexit is the exception.
While the British political elite is tearing itself apart over how to leave the European Union,
the EU-27 have been remarkably united in their approach to the negotiations.
This unity derives from a clear negotiation mandate by the 27 heads of state and government,
a close coordination by the EU Commission
– and four common European interests.
....
the EU-27 decided early on that only the EU Commission would conduct the talks with Britain.
When the 27 leaders meet to discuss Brexit, Theresa May has to leave the room.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel in particular was adamant that there should be no bilateral talks with the British.
Thus, whenever Juncker, Tusk or Barnier speak to the British about Brexit,
they have the full weight of Berlin, Paris, Rome et al behind them.
....
Viewed from Berlin, Brussels or Paris, the worst possible outcome is not a no-deal Brexit, but the unravelling of the single market.
A Brexit deal that allowed Britain preferential access to the EU’s single market without the accompanying obligations would potentially give UK companies unfair competitive advantages
and rip apart the careful political comprise underpinning the single market.
As a result the EU-27 firmly rejected Theresa May’s ‘Chequers plan’ proposing that the UK have preferential access to the single market for goods only.
Even German industry has repeatedly stressed that despite the importance of the British market, big as it is,
the integrity of the EU’s single market is far more important to them.
...
From a European perspective, there is also a strong asymmetry in the trading relationship.
The EU-27 together are by far the most important trading partner of the UK,
accounting for roughly 44 per cent of its exports,
with the US at 18 per cent in a distant second place.
the UK accounts for about 13.5 per cent of Irish trade
and sits at well below 10 per cent for the rest of the EU-27
....
In the Brexit talks it is necessary for the EU to show that it is willing to protect the interests of all its members,
be they large or small.
....
The impression from the continent is, however, that the Brexiters in Westminster will never be satisfied with the withdrawal agreement,
and thus the combination of Article 50’s ticking clock and the threat of a no-deal exit is the only way to get to an orderly Brexit.
....
At the same time, the EU-27 are stepping up their ‘no deal’-preparations.
.....
Brussels and the national capitals have already agreed that they will deal with any fallout from a no-deal as a bloc,
rejecting any bilateral side deals with London.
In the same vein, the EU-27 have ruled out a ‘managed no-deal’,
in which the EU and Britain quickly find agreements to cushion the consequences of a hard Brexit.
Instead, they have agreed to only undertake the most necessary unilateral measures to protect the interest of European companies such as keeping the planes flying.