Westminstenders: Waiting for Sanity

[RedToothBrush]

We could be waiting a long time, but that's what we have to wait for as that's what the EU is waiting for.

The EU has requested we expand on our plans for 'alternative arrangements' with regard to the backstop.

We need to do so before the next HoC vote on 14th Feb. The EU see no point in shifting their position before than. And the UK will struggle to provide the info the EU want before then. So there is now some doubt as to whether the vote will go ahead as planned.

About a third of the Cabinet now believe that Brexit will have to be delayed due to legislation not being ready for exit date. However we don't have power over this and we might still exit without it.

There is no Brexit related business next week in the HoC to prevent pesky amendments. The recess has been cancelled but MPs have been told its OK to go on their ski holidays so it's just a PR stunt.

Meanwhile No Deal is in full effect as businesses trigger their exit strategy in the absence of certainty. No Deal is reality for many even if we do have a last minute deal...

We are all about to get poorer. As that's what we voted for.

Loads of experts- one after another.

Thanks Hester

The article says "We're investigating crisis responses to Brexit ...", but apart from calling for relaxation of benefits rules, there doesn't seem to be much in the way of practical measures and no advice seems to have been issued to foodbanks - as evidenced by the fact that you've had to dig out that article as the only source of info I've found.

the backstop is just the 1st item in a list of concessions Brexiters demand

Listen to what the ERG are saying,
not the media headlines claiming that dropping the Backstop would stop No Deal

Even if Ireland is bullied into giving that up, the ERG want still more concessions before they approve the WA

• in reality, they'll never be satisfied because most genuinely want No Deal and are just using up time until that happens automatically

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe

Brexiteers, he [Baker] insisted, had “grave misgivings about the whole [withdrawal] agreement”, and not only the backstop.

Andrea Jenkyns posted a similar message – to the effect that “alternative arrangements” for the Irish border were not the sum total of the hardline leavers’ demands
but just the first item on a long list.

The only way May could force them to vote for the WA is to threaten that if it doesn't pass, she'll Revoke to avoid No Deal.

However, that threat alone would send the Tory party into meltdown, let alone if she actually Revoked.

R4 - Brexit a guide for the perplexed. I don't think I've heard as many doubts expressed about Brexit by the BBC. Ever.

Shame it's too late.

I'm not keen on the Scottish system. At only 14, kids have to narrow down to 6 or 7 subjects. At 15 they have to go down to 5 subjects. And there is only 1 year of 6th form, with many schools offering a very small, and unpredictable, choice of Advanced Highers. And most don't do much work in the 6th form, as they have by then received unconditional University offers. The 6th form experience as experienced in England doesn't really exist within the state sector here.

The only way May could force them to vote for the WA is to threaten that if it doesn't pass, she'll Revoke to avoid No Deal. However, that threat alone would send the Tory party into meltdown, let alone if she actually Revoked.

Tick tock, tick tock.

Be curious to know what - if any - resources the EU have put to one side for Theresa Mays next visit to Brussels ?

I suspect the world will be impressed at how well the EUs no deal planning copes when no deal is a reality. Almost as impressed as it will be with the underwhelming UK preparations.

I think it's around about now, that we need to really, really, really gee Breixteers up and help them Keep The Faith. As long as they are happy to carry on mindlessly parroting empty soundbites, instead of doing any preparation at all, the pain of no-deal (thanks to them ) will be so extreme that a hasty re-entry is all the more likely. In fact that last fact is a great way to goad Brexiteers into not prepping.

Peregrina - Standard grades went superceded 5+ years ago

Curriculum for Excellence, which replaced Standard Grades with National 5s (and National 4s for the less able) is supposed to be integrated from 3-18 (so ds was "converted" to the new way of teaching in 2010, when he was still at primary sSchool but because his school was an exemplar of best practice, nothing really changed ) and although in theory, the able kids can skip Nat 5s and go straight through to Highers (which are, as you would expect Nat 6s), in practice most if not all, now schools have the kids sitting Nat 5s, so that they've had practice at exams before they sit their important Highers (the universities expect 5 to be sat in a single diet). In S6 (equivalent of upper 6th), they can sit/re-sit more Highers/Nat 5s/crash a Higher or do Advanced Highers (Nat 7 - but no one ever calls them that). Ds, for example, did 2 Advanced Highers (Maths and Physics) and crashed a Higher (Modern Studies) which he'd dropped at the end of S2.

In theory, the Broad General Education continues to the end of S3 (although some schools, like ds' school) allow pupils to make their Nat 5 choices at the end of S2. It dies mean that Scottish pupils sit fewer Nat 5s than English pupils sit GCSEs. There is also an inconsistency as to have many Nat 5s can be sat in S4 across the country.

The principle of CfE is that you are supposed to have had a foundation across a range of subjects and to be able to learn to apply your knowledge across the different subjects and not just learn by rote. (So Maths and Physics exams, for example, are much more "applied" than in my day). It's also supposed to mean that it is possible to crash a wider range of subjects in either S5 or, more normally, S6.

CfE has had teething problems and there are many who don't like it, but I'm actually a fan of it.

The R4 episode of Brexit and complexity was on just after 12 and is available here later...

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0002b8z#play

prettybird my DS was in the first cohort for Nat 5s, and whilst I like the idea of the Broad General Education to the end of S3 (Yr 10 elsewhere in the UK), his school restricted them to taking 6 Nat 5s in S4 - so after the compulsory English and maths, he could only choose 4 subjects. And you couldn’t sit physics, chemistry and biology separately, you could do two separate sciences or triple science, which was equivalent to two subject choices.

This then really restricted choice of Highers, and there were a lot of crash Highers being sat both in S5 and S6.

In Edinburgh (and our local private schools) they finished the BGE at the end of S2 (although this is a year earlier than the CfE intended) and started Nat 5s then, giving them an extra year and enabling 8 subjects to be taken.

I also recall my experience at Uni (albeit a loooooong time ago ) where I was studying alongside English students who had done a year's more French than me (I was at St Andrews which was/Is essentially an English Uni and unusually, had gone there from S5, having only done Highers) and was surprised that they didn't seem to have a whole year's worth of extra study advantage over me

The main difference, iirc, was that they'd studied French literature for their A Level, whereas I hadn't for my Higher. But as I was good at English (where I'd excelled at literature analyses), I just transferred that skill (....which, bringing it around full circle, is one of the core principles of CfE )

And to add to the MFL discussion, restricting the Nat 5 choices so much led to a lot of the STEM kids dropping their MFL.

May and Javid are confident we've all forgotten the Windrush scandal and won't notice they've resumed deporting elderly Jamaican:^

After all, they are no use any more - to old to work, so now they are just expensive old codgers who'd use the NHS if they stay.
^
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/revealed-home-office-resume-controversial-chartered-deportation-flights-to-jamaica-with-windrush-relatives-caught-in-swoop/02/02/?utm_source=marfeelpushh^^
^
Jamaican born men and at least two women, many of whom have lived for decades in the UK and have British families, have been detained
with a government chartered plane due to deport up to 50 people to Jamaica next week.
....
Home Secretary Sajid Javid revelealed that at least 63 people were wrongly deported to the Caribbean, prompting a Home Office investigation.

However with the scale of the operation revealed many are questioning whether the number of wrongly deported may actually be significantly higher.

Here's a clip of BBC interviews from 1978 about the idea of using kilometres rather than miles.

mobile.twitter.com/BBCArchive/status/1092120538259038209

Substitute mention of kilometres for Brexit and nothing seems to have changed in the past 40 years.

Particularly liked the man who "did ten years in the war", when it only lasted six for everyone else

Even the Scottish system sounds very restricted in terms of subject breadth versus most of Europe. My DS in the equivalent of Y12 on a science baccalauréat course (Engineering option) has: Maths, Physics/Chemistry, Engineering, French, English, German, History/ Geography and Civics. He will sit bac papers in all of those except civics, and will also sit optional music and possibly Spanish exams.

DD in her first year of HE has classes in maths, economics, sociology, law, French lit, English lit, English "civilisation" (ie history and politics) all of which are compulsory plus optional history and history of art.

Brexit forces biggest cuts in years, Deloitte survey finds

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5c657fca-27f0-11e9-a92b-e57f23e07fe4

Finance chiefs slash hiring and spending plans as confidence falls

Companies are scaling back spending and hiring plans more ferociously than at any time for nine years amid uncertainty about Brexit,
a survey of finance chiefs has found.

Executives at some of the biggest British businesses are prioritising measures to drive down costs to shore up their balance sheets, according to Deloitte’s quarterly survey of chief financial officers.

Uncertainty over the terms of the UK’s departure and its future trading relationships is increasingly weighing on businesses’ investment plans.
Nissan, the Japanese carmaker, cited Brexit as a factor in its decision at the weekend to scrap plans to build its new X-Trail model in Sunderland.

Oh and he'll have to do philosophy in Y13 lol (actually he might enjoy it if he gets a decent teacher).

Buteo - ds' school (inner city state school in Glasgow) also allowed choices at the end of S2 so that they sit 8 Nat 5s.

They claim still to follow the BGE in S3 (and have passed their BGE audits) as they include the 8 BGE areas in their 8 columns for Nat 5 choices. So, for example, a MFL is still compulsory in S3 (although I suspect that some of the less able, who aren't going to sit 8 Nat 5s, might drop it at the end of S3). And they are proud of the fact that they still offer the opportunity to study all 3 sciences all the way through from Nat 5 to Advanced Higher

The inconsistency in what pupils are "allowed" to do is one of the problems with CfE . Glasgow City Council Education might have its problems - but I have to give it credit for giving the secondary schools discretion in how they implement it.

pointythings DH has just spoken to the Dutch equivalent of the DVLA, who (had to look it up and) told him that you’ll be able to drive in the Netherlands on a UK driving license if you’re there for up to 3 months. No need for an IDP.

(The nice DVLA lady’s DH is a Brit and has been living in the Netherlands for 25 years. He has just received a letter saying that he needs to report to local authorities between 30 March and 1 April to be registered ).

German govt would still love the UK to Remain, but rate the chances "extraordinarily low"

Opinion here is that any Brexit will harm the UK economy, but that a No Deal Brexit could destroy the UK as an advanced economy and peaceful society of 4 nations.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f88c25dc-27fc-11e9-a92b-e57f23e07fe4

“Exit from Brexit” is Germany’s preferred option over Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union next month
but the chances of it are extraordinarily low, the country’s foreign minister has said.

Heiko Maas told the Funke media group that he hoped Britain would cancel Brexit over the coming weeks as Theresa May failed to secure new concessions and the prospect of no-deal Brexit loomed.

“That’s what I’d like the most,” he said.
“But we should have no illusions about this. The likelihood of an exit from Brexit is extraordinarily low.”

Being restricted to so few subjects so young in Scotland means that, at 14, dd is having to drop all the fun arty subjects - art, DT, music, drama. And even then she can only fit in 1 science and 1 MFL. And she hasn't been allowed all her choices either. It sucks. The children have been told, at 14, that they need to know what job they're aiming for so that they don't mess up their choices. There is no room to keep their options open until they're older.

3 months grace for changing driving licences - and iirc RHD cars - is standard across the EU
(at least the countries I know)

Irish border: German Justice Minister (my translation):

“For us, peace is a given.
But the people in Ireland have experienced a civil war, in the middle of Europe.

That is why there cannot be a hard border again.
Peace on the island of Ireland cannot become collateral damage of Brexit.”
.....
Katarina Barleyy@katarinabarley*
Für uns ist Frieden etwas Selbstverständliches, aber die Menschen in #Irlandd^ haben Bürgerkrieg mitbekommen, mitten in Europa.
Deswegen darf hier die harte Grenze nicht wieder entstehen.
Der Frieden auf der irischen Insel darf nicht zum Kollateralschaden des #Brexitt^ werden.

Mistigri - I agree, the Scottish system still isn't as broad as the French baccalaureate system.

The Scottish Uni system is a wee bit broader than the English one (partly because it is predicated on the ability of students to come from S5) so it is expected that you study 3 or 4 subjects in 1st year (so 2 or 3 "extra" beyond the subject you applied for). Ds is somewhat peeved that Aberdeen is one of those that does 4 subjects in 1st year - so in addition to PIR, he is also studying/has studied Economics, Philosophy, 20th century European History and Sociology (it seems that some of them he only needs to do for a semester, so he got his pass for history last semester and is now studying sociology). I wish that a MFL was compulsory - he looked into doing one, but it conflicted with his (compulsory) PIR. He would also have liked to do Statistics (as he loves his Maths) but annoyingly, one lecture overlapped with PIR. (He's still not confident enough yet to go and ask if there were a way around that, given his interest).

Even in 2nd year, if you are doing an Arts degree, you are expected to do another 1st year subject. (I believe that is one of the reasons why the Scottish "Ancients" award MAs rather than BAs).

Barnier's deputy explains - yet again for the hard of thinking (ERG, Javid ....) - why the EU can't just ignore its external border in Ireland after Brexit

Sabine Weyand@WeyandSabine

That would not be « goodwill » but a dereliction of duty by public authorities in the EU
that have a duty to ensure public health and safety of consumers, protect against unfair competition and enforce public policies and international agreements.

Raphael Hogarthh@Raphael*_Hogarth

"All that's missing is a bit of goodwill on the EU side."
True, insofar as we could ditch the backstop and avoid a hard border if the EU were prepared to let some non-compliant goods into its market and waive tariff revenue it was owed.

That's quite a lot of goodwill, though.