How scared are you of brexit?

[onegrapeshortofabunch]

Because I’m trying to work out if I’m a normal amount of scared or if I’m losing it.

I’m terrified of the recession that is looming after brexit, increased food prices, reduced public spending, which will lead to more homelessness and misery and perhaps even more violence on the streets. I’m terrified of the NHS being privatised, of not having access to cheap fruit and vegetables, of not being able to travel to europe.

Perhaps most of all I’m scared of a return to the troubles in Northern Ireland. I can’t velieve people would rather have a border than a backstop.

I’m scared of the way Eu migrants are being treated and how normal it has become for the Eu to be hated and mocked and blamed for everything. I’m scared of what this is doing to my friends, my colleagues, my community. I feel complicit and I don’t know how to protest or complain.

I’m a Londoner, and I’m scared of the ‘metropolitan elite’ conspiracy theories that both the left and the right seen to hold about people like me (I guess I’m what could be called ‘a centrist’). It makes me scared to talk about any of this.

I’m terrified for the future of our country, for my son’s future, for my elderly parents’ future, for our jobs. We are small, community minded people with small incomes. I spend a lot of my time volunteering in the local community. I feel like I should have been getting rich and hoarding money instead because it’s all going to be dog eat dog very soon.

I am losing sleep. I can’t concentrate at work. I find myself bursting into tears and getting angry for no reason other than a total; overwhelming fear of the future. I feel like my future has been taken away. Am i going mad? Or is it just the uncertainty? Or am I really part of an elite that can’t handle change?

For what it’s worth, I think the Eu needs to reform and the uk needs a big political shake up. But I think brexit is going to make all our problems worse, not better.

Does anyone else feel this way?

Spinflight the overwhelming majority of our deals with the RoW are predicated on us being members of the E.U.. if we no Deal those deals and every other international agreement we have STOPS. I'm not saying they can't be carried over or remade or anything like that but this requires the agreement of both parties. And isn't necessarily on the same terms.

@Spinflight divorcing is always much more complicated than marrying!

Look, I know a lot of people say we can "just" fall back on WTO rules, but it isn't that simple as far as I can tell from my limited understanding. I found this in a document written by experts in the field of WTO law.

*Without an agreement on their future trading relations — particularly some kind of free trade agreement—trade between the UK and the EU will be based purely on WTO terms.

This means import duties and various controls will be imposed on trade between the UK and the EU, with impacts concentrated in agriculture and industries that depend on products which
repeatedly cross between the UK and the rest of the EU, such as components to make cars or ingredientsfor processing food.
On top of that, the UK would lose the benefit of free trade agreements it now has with countries such as South Korea and Canada as a member of the EU. Therefore, more British imports and exports would face tariffs.

And it means UK services, which can now access the whole of the EU’s single market (i.e. currently, the 28 member states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway) relatively freely, would only be allowed the much more restricted access of the EU and UK’s commitments in the WTO.

Trading only on WTO terms is the default position, but in fact no country does it. Although many trade barriers have been lowered through the WTO, all countries seek even less friction. All 164 WTO members have better access to at least one market either through a free trade agreement or through duty-free preferences for developing countries. Most countries have several deals, even if they do not all have one with the EU or the US.*

So to me that translates to the possibility of shortages of all sorts of things and higher prices?

{If joining a trade block and standardising external tariffs results in little or no noticeable disruption to everyday life then why do you think the reverse not be true?}
The difference is in the timescale. JOINING something, is an act of planning. BMW have signed up a deal with China to significantly expand it's production in China. The regulations are being changed in China to allow this and due to be signed in 3 years time. During this BMW are no doubt sounding out new dealers in China and drawing the plans for the factory.
Having a baby is a gradual process of growth, and continues for years. Death however can be instant.

Exactly. If TM had spent some of the last two and half years getting (to borrow a mumsnet phrase) her ducks in a row in case of No Deal I would not feel quite so uneasy.

I'm due to give birth at the end of March so yes, I am fucking worried.

If breastfeeding fails and I have to FF what the fuck am I going to do if there is nothing on the shelves? My baby didn't vote to leave..... I refuse to stockpile something I have no intention of using.

Let's hope I'm not handed a bottle of whisky if I need an epidural!

I just don't have any faith in the government. None of them have acted in the interests of the people in the UK (yes, you do WORK FOR US, not the other way round). TM's stubbornness and willingness to crash out of the EU because it means losing voters to delay/revoke is particularly worrying. Although, I do get in needs to be on the table for negotiating, it will not do anything to change the EU's position and a actually makes us look more stupid that we would even consider it. We just need a new political system full stop. This has highlighted so many cracks.

@bubblewire

First off the deals we have have agreed to roll over... though 8 of them want small renogotiations.

Secondly, and this is key, it is the EU which currently charges high tariffs to protec ttheir industries.

Hence all this talk of high tariffs is actually people describing the current EU tariff wall. :)

Which is designed, for instance, to stop someone undercutting Danish pork and bacon.

There are two scenarios here, and infinite complexity between the two, but they are basically to mirror the current EU tariffs or to cut them to zero.

I favour the latter, except on cars as it amuses me to think of BMW paying my taxes, but the former is merely how things are at the moment for most countries trading with th EU.

We import 2-3x what we export to most of the major EU countries so as buyers we have the power.

Oh and if we do buy European then they are haelping to pay our taxes through tariffs... Straight to our treasury.

Meanwhile exporters to the EU ar epaying Juncker's brandy bill as that tariff revenue goes to EU funds, as it currently does with ours.

"I just don't have any faith in the government."

And that is where their childish tactics are abhorent. They're causing genuine distress through intransigence.

And not just the government, but the press too. Scare stories sell papers, I get that, but it seems they've gone way too far.

Think we need to hose down the entire establishment myself. A cleanout.

So whether remainer or leaver I'm sure we can all agree that if, as I expect, brexit turns out to be just another millenium bug then do not forgive and forget who was spreading scare stories.

First off the deals we have have agreed to roll over... though 8 of them want small renogotiations.

They will roll over in the event of No Deal?

it amuses me to think of BMW paying my taxes

You really don't understand how import duty works do you @Spinflight ? Or maybe you're just being deliberately disingenuous.

@Marmaladehandbag . I totally get it. Brexit aside, I assumed I would bf and was devastated when it didn't work out. I resented buying stuff I didn't want to buy as well as dealing with all the stuff that went with what I saw as a failure.
Do you have a trusted friend who would understand this and could buy it and hold for you (you give them the money) on your behalf, so you don't have to look at it? It only needs to be, say, a box of powdered stuff. I am pretty confident (even as a general prepper) that vulnerable people like babies would be prioritised.

@bubblewire

Roll over might be the wrong term to use here as we aren't allowed under the EU treaties to sign anything until we are out. However it was the language used by the trade minister who visited them all...

Not that trade deals are actually that important if you have low tariffs anyway...

WTO rules set the maximum, you can unilaterally reduce them to zero.

@Spinflight , reference to the Millennium Bug scores Bingo! That wasn't a problem because of good careful planning. It's a false comparison.

Roll over might be the wrong term to use here as we aren't allowed under the EU treaties to sign anything until we are out. However it was the language used by the trade minister who visited them all...

So therefore if we go to No Deal, all those agreements cease to exist. Which is why I am worried! You have just said above how the Government aren't to be trusted, yet you parrot their lines! Gah!

"You really don't understand how import duty works do you @Spinflight ? Or maybe you're just being deliberately disingenuous."

BMW (uk) is the importer, so pays the duty. And seeing as they import 150,000 cars a year from Germeny at, say, £25,000 a time? That's £375 million to the exchequer, and off my tax bill.

It is as simple as that.

"So therefore if we go to No Deal, all those agreements cease to exist."

No difference in deal or no deal here... They cease to exist ( as they are EU deals) after exit.

Though either way we'll be resigning them.

So we're not just simply going to "roll over" with those deals, they all have to be negotiated?

Spinflight

I am well aware of scaremongering tactics thanks. I am ignoring that and actually looking at the level of competency I think this government have to manage a no deal scenario and that's why I have no confidence. I just don't think they are prepared. I actually don't think we will go for this option and we will find an alternative, but while it is still a possibility I will worry. I am having a baby for fucksake! If there are experts out there saying that there will be food shortages I don't want to put my family at risk. It's called parental instinct! What exactly makes you an expert over these people anyway?

OK I think what you are saying that most won't need to be negotiated/renegotaited, but even so, it will take time to do the paperwork, won't it? And so there is a void for a time.

{BMW (uk) is the importer, so pays the duty. And seeing as they import 150,000 cars a year from Germany at, say, £25,000 a time? That's £375 million to the exchequer, and off my tax bill.}

Apart from the inaccuracies in this sentence, be happy in your ignorance, it is FAR more complicated than that.
The real problem is the legal mechanisms that all trade works on get ripped up with a 'no deal'. Of course they can be renegotiated but as there are a hell of a lot of things that need renegotiating, don't expect it to happen quickly.

"So we're not just simply going to "roll over" with those deals, they all have to be negotiated?"

8 want changes... No idea how significant and they aren't saying.

The others have agreed to resign.

Marmaladehandbag I am really sad that you have all this to worry about at what should be a lovely time for you.

I do think we will end up with a deal.

In answer to the op's question, not at all. Not one tiny little bit and we are more likely than most Brits to suffer inconvenience because we have a 2nd home in France.

" I just don't think they are prepared."

They seem to enjoy giving that impression... Which is borderline evil in persuit of already impossible political objectives in my opinion.

Hence why anonymous civil servants broke their code to write articles for the Telegraph saying that they are prepared...

"I do think we will end up with a deal."

I very much doubt it.

Juncker is out after the EU elections but he's staked his reputation on being... As he is.

And he's a drunk who won't listen to reason so... On the whole....

I'm not seeing it.