When do you think we'll reapply to join the EU?

[MuseumofInnocence]

I was listening to the NS podcast and John Lanchester, the novelist was on. He was talking about the big problems we face, which include Brexit, Trump, and Climate Change and he said that the first two will ultimately be solved by demographics. Trump will be voted out as people, and ultimately, we'll rejoin the EU in some form in the future as it's what young people want, whereas CC is the only one that won't go away.

Of course, it made me think how pointless Brexit is, as the politicians must broadly be aware that in implementing Brexit, they are carrying out (largely) the wishes of an older generation, who won't be around for ever, whereas those younger are more favourable to european cooperation.

So, it got me thinking, do you think we will repply to join the EU, and if so, when? I can absolutely so that if we do leave, within 10 years we will be applying to rejoin.

Much sooner than ten years, I would have thought. But how favourably will they look upon our application after all this? So much damage being done.
What's the NS podcast? I like John Lanchester.

If you crash out with no deal and SHTF as much as predicted it could be a very long time. Also, why would you be accepted? With a broken economy, currency through the floor and all the other problems this would bring, why should the EU take the UK back, reinvest in them, fix the issues when they could try and leave again?

Think of it with the divorce deal, if someone decides to just leave for no reason, drags out a divorce creating pain in the arse stuff for everyone over years. Why would you take them back when they're knocking on your door years later, in a total shambles asking to move back in and be cared for saying 'ooooops'.

To be clear, I don't want that to happen, but it is a possibility.

And hopefully the bloody paragraphs are working for me now..

Of course we haven't left yet. The EU have said that it would look favourably at the UK rejoining but as far as I am aware that is a 'wish' rather than a legal position.
With all the shenanigans I would anticipate they would want to see a significant shift to 'pro Europe' which is unlikely to happen for many years.

a significant shift to 'pro Europe' now THERE'S a unicorn worth dreaming about...

The NS Podcast is the New Statesman - it has Stephen Bush and Helen Lewis and I think they're great

Thanks MuseumofInnocence listening to it now.

I don't think we'll rejoin the European Union. I suspect that we will rejoin whatever new political body arises after the internal inconsistencies see it split.

I expect that if we do end up going through with Brexit, and especially if we throw ourselves off the cliff of no deal, the campaign to rejoin the EU will restart the next morning once we've finished mopping up our tears.

And why wouldn't it? We're giving up something that's pretty good (not perfect, but perfectly adequate) in pursuit of a range of Brexit outcomes, none of which are anywhere near as good as what we will be giving up by leaving the EU.

So I can see a party campaigning to "regroup and rejoin" would get a huge amount of traction pretty quickly, especially if the bad "no deal" stuff starts happening, like car plants closing down, food and medicine running short, etc.

Of course, we will have blown our chance to remain in the EU under exactly the same terms we currently enjoy, including the rebate, opt-outs and so on. So EU 2.0 will not be as immediately appealing as what we'll have given up. Nevertheless, it will almost certainly still be better than the pitiful existence that awaits us once we become the first nation in history to walk away from all its international agreements, trade deals and treaties.

EdwinH I think the campaign to rejoin is already underway and has been ever since the ref result - not in a formalised sense but in the sense there is a committed core of people who will never ever give in to the madness of leaving (I'm one) and who will simply transfer the energy they're using now to try and prevent Brexit to immediately trying to rejoin. But to actually re-apply formally will require a consensus in the country as a whole to make the application. That won't happen overnight. I've just seen your long Brexit-explainer on another thread and I'm going to print it out and look at it properly, too long to read on screen. Looks good though!

Will the UK be willing to give up the Pound Sterling?
Will the UK be willing to follow EU legislation and directives as any other country would be asked to do, if they were joining the EU for the first time?

When you get the answer to those two questions, I think you'll have your answer to When will the UK re-join the EU.

Will the UK be willing to give up the Pound Sterling?
Will the UK be willing to follow EU legislation and directives as any other country would be asked to do, if they were joining the EU for the first time?

Yes is almost certainly the answer to both those questions, if the alternative is the loss of our manufacturing industries because of the breakdown of just-in-time supply chains, food shortages, medicine rationing, Government control over ferries and other transport services, long queues at the borders, international drivers' licenses needed for driving in the EU, no opportunity for young people to participate in Erasmus and Erasmus+ education and work placements schemes, etc. etc.

If we have a no deal Brexit, just about anything at all will look better by comparison. "The euro?" "Yes please, where do we sign?" "No special treatments or vetos?" "Yes please, where do we sign?" etc.

It is impossible to overstate just how disruptive a no deal Brexit is likely to be. That's what happens when you tear up over a thousand international treaties, arrangements and trade deals forged over nearly half a century, destroying them as effectively as if we fed them one by one into a shredder on Brexit Day.

To get some idea, have a scroll through the information at the link below. That's the Government's official guidance to businesses to help them "survive" the effects of a no deal Brexit. There are 136 documents, and every single one is a mini tale of woe. Each one describes something we will lose, some workaround or fudge companies will need to adopt, or something they will just have to do without.
www.gov.uk/find-eu-exit-guidance-business?keywords=&order=most-recent

(That's why people who understand the situation describe a no deal Brexit as a "catastrophe". It's because it will be a catastrophe!)

There won't be an EU in decades to come to re-join, or if there is it won't be anything like the EU we are leaving today.

After we leave other countries will follow suit.

Aye cos Brexit is showing all those other countries how easy and simple it is eh CiderBrains?

Well it's not supposed to be easy is it The EU aren't exactly going to make it easy for anyone to leave which is (a on the relationship boards) a big red flag..

I was thinking more of what a shitshow the British government are making of it rather than the EU making things difficult

Other countries may well just be better at leaving than our MPs. Once we leave and the world doesn't end then other countries will follow..

They are certainly giving hints and tips on how not to do it anyway

You do have to remember that the younger generation have all grown up in the EU. It’s all they’ve ever known. It’s natural for them to be scared or leaving especially if they are not well traveled. But it not entirely clear if they will still be frightened after living outside of it for a while. Obviously there will still be an element of nostalgia in the same way that soviet nostalgia is big at the moment. But the whole point in being young is that they will change as they get older, get jobs that aren’t tied to the EU, have kids, male friends from outside the EU etc. The EU will also change (hopefully for the better). New member states, more/fewer member states, different legislation, ever closer/devolution. It’s impossible to say what there will be in ten years to go back to exactly or how people who are pro/anti/neutral today will feel (let’s be frank a lot of sentiment on both sides is actual sentiment) or think about it.

@ciderbrains you’ve had too much cider. That isn’t analogous. A better analogy would be a couple where one party felt hard done by and announced that they would leave followed by a divorce where both parties are trying to get more assets.

Ah but StoorieHoose it would have been so simple if it wasn't for the pesky Paddys getting in the way, you know. Them and their border are creating problems.

Sarcasm obviously.

And apparently the reason the PM doesn’t want to give a People Vote is because it will give those uppity Scots the excuse they want for their second ref. When will these Colonies learn their place!!

Sarcasm obviously :)

Anyone who says "the EU isn't making it easy for us to leave" doesn't understand the real nature of the UK's relationship with the EU.

Imagine you get married and move to your partner's country. You don't know anyone, you don't know the language, but they help you get integrated. Their father gives you a job, their mother babysits your kids, their uncle (an accountant) does your taxes. Their friends gradually become your friends too. And so on, and so on.

Now, imagine that repeated across over 1,000 different connections.

Now, imagine that you and your partner are splitting up. And one of the consequences of splitting up is that you have to give up all those ties that you forged as a result of being with them. If the split can be amicable, you get a little time to sort yourself out, stand on your own two feet. But either way, all those 1,000+ different relations must end as a condition of breaking up.

How easy would that be? Doesn't make a jot of difference what your partner does, it would still be "incredibly different". And the impact would still be "enormous".

Now map that back into global geopolitical terms. We've been EU members for over 40 years. During that time, we have chosen - a sovereign choice, not an enforced one - to integrate countless aspects of our laws, our trade policies, etc. with those of the EU.

Brexit requires we sever all those ties. It's an absolute requirement, not up for discussion. It would be the same no matter which country was trying to leave.

And bingo, it's super-tough. Not because the EU's putting tripwires in our way, and playing hard to get. But because of the sheer volume and breadth of all the relationships we are abandoning.

We. That's the most important word in the whole of Brexit. We, the UK, have taken the independent and sovereign decision to leave the EU. They're not booting us out. They're not trying to ease us out the door. They'd like us to stay. But we said "nope, we're off."

And as a consequence we are suffering exactly as much as it is natural for us to be suffering, giving the complete rupture of all our existing relationships.

Notions of them!!

Eh? It was us oldies who joined the EU …. "Britain joined the EEC in 1973, after Charles de Gaulle's resignation in 1969. Under the Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, there was a UK referendum on continued membership of the EEC in 1975. The electorate voted 'Yes' by 67.2% to 32.8% to stay in Europe."

I am probably on the older edge of Mumsnet members and have a very European family and zero desire to leave the EU for any reason, personal, economic or political ...

Don't follow the economic news, then, OP?!

Horrible times are coming in the Eurozone, that'll make 2008 look like a teddy bears picnic. It's just a question of whether it will happen before the next global recession gets underway or not.

The fall out from that means there won't be much wider and deeper, and conceivably, no EU once the chips have fallen.