When do you think we'll reapply to join the EU?

[MuseumofInnocence]

I was listening to the NS podcast and John Lanchester, the novelist was on. He was talking about the big problems we face, which include Brexit, Trump, and Climate Change and he said that the first two will ultimately be solved by demographics. Trump will be voted out as people, and ultimately, we'll rejoin the EU in some form in the future as it's what young people want, whereas CC is the only one that won't go away.

Of course, it made me think how pointless Brexit is, as the politicians must broadly be aware that in implementing Brexit, they are carrying out (largely) the wishes of an older generation, who won't be around for ever, whereas those younger are more favourable to european cooperation.

So, it got me thinking, do you think we will repply to join the EU, and if so, when? I can absolutely so that if we do leave, within 10 years we will be applying to rejoin.

Hefzi
A good try, and yes things will not necessarily be rosy for the EU. The 'good' news is that the UK has been projected to be something like 10 times WORSE off, something akin to the 1930's depression.
At least the EU can have a decent stab at 'pulling together'.

Sounds like me in my divorce. I decided I wasn't happy and wanted to leave. We both went for what we wanted in the divorce. It was messy, it took an emotional toll and me In particular had to leave behind all I'd known including house, job and life to start again. But after a tough start things are so much better now than they were then.. I had moments of thinking how am I going to do this and will I ever be settled and happy but I did it! It was tough but I did it. A new life created after a shitstorm leaving my old life behind..

I’m half hoping it goes to no deal and Scotland gets independence and rejoins the EU. It will be a shitshow but it will be a shitshow of Scotland making not at the behest of some Tory twats

Before some pedant picks me up on it that should be join the EU not rejoin

I don't know - really not convinced that Germany will be willing, or able, for that matter to bail out the rest of them. Italy has been teetering on the brink for years, Greece is also far gone, Spain is improving recently but will struggle, France is beginning to show real signs of trouble...

And as for predictions: remember that if we voted Leave it was going to shrink the economy by 3% almost immediately? And how not joining the ERM was going to be a financial disaster? I like economists, I really do (being one and all that) : but too many predictions are based on purely mathematical models and yet we KNOW we can't model human behaviour very realistically, despite numerous models and approaches.

I haven't run a model on the euro, as currency isn't my field: but I don't like what I am seeing and hearing, and the patterns emerging over the last 18 months especially. The bugger of an export-based model is that when it's good, it's very good - when there's trade wars, isolationism and issues with free trade, it comes back to bite you on the arse. Especially if you're running an illegal current account surplus

I am not saying I'm right - I admit I thought China would go into recession this quarter, and it won't, and I also thought it might be triggered by the Turkish lira issues last year. But I do think it would be silly to over look the lack of growth in the Eurozone economies, the ongoing debt problems in the region, the lower than expected growth - or contraction in some states, coupled with rising unemployment in some areas of concern, plus the wider global financial and trade environment: and assume that monetary union is too big to fail. And assume that the EU would weather that successfully, especially A8.

I think the next 5-10 years will see a contraction of the Jean Monnet-type vision, and possibly a recreation of a leaner, meaner union closer to the ECSC than the EU.

I could easily be wrong. I didn't call the Referendum correctly . But I did get the GE, Trump, the US elections last November, plus France and I'm also pretty good on developing economies worth investing in

Hefzi
So, since you are such a smart arse, HOW is the UK going to replace the lost industry and generate the wealth that they are making currently.
on March 30th, what is everyone going to do?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2QYaJGgtw8

This is the problem with the Eurozone explained in very simple terms.

I don't think we will rejoin for a very long time. I'm not sure any country would want to join the EU and take the Euro under these circumstances, or having seen how difficult it is to leave.

Hefzi

The EEC/EU has survived the cold war, the 70s oil crisis, several recessions in the 80s and 90s, the collapse of the USSR, the reunification Germany, the GFC..... Eurosceptics have predicted the collapse of Europe with all of these and been wrong.

Whether it will survive brexit and any future global recession? who knows! but one thing is certain, the UK damaging exports to its nearest & largest market, whilst having nothing to replace it with nor any idea of how to, is economic madness.

However, my fear isn't so much economic, its political, Brexit could well end up destabilizing Europe & history shows that never ends well.