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Brexit
Original poster

Theresa May playing a very clever game of chicken?

31 replies

Alexalee · 21/01/2019 17:00

I think Theresa May is playing and winning a very very clever game of chicken... by ensuring leaving on the 29th march there will be only 1 vote for politicians, her deal or no deal... and there is a lot more support for some deal than no deal at all... as hers is the only deal agreed, she would get her wish.

OP posts:
Bluntness100 · 21/01/2019 17:05

I don't like it. I understand she's saying she will respect the referendum and the way to avoid no deal is to agree a deal. Which fundamentally is true, I think we just need to watch it play out.

She has spoken to several eu heads so I'd assume she is confident on getting a concession on the back stop, and she's using no deal as the threat to get it.

I'd say she's playing chicken with the eu rather than any one else.

CiderBrains · 21/01/2019 17:10

I think MPs who voted against the deal did so because they thought somehow that if they voted against it then Brexit would be cancelled. Now that there's a very real possibility that a No Deal Brexit could happen they have no one to blame other than themselves for playing devils advocate for the sake of getting their way regarding Brexit (to stay.)

Random18 · 21/01/2019 17:13

@Cider why would you vote for a deal that makes is not as good as you currently have.

What was promised by Leave is impossible to deliver.

If Brexit fails only the Govt and Leave campaigners are to blame.

They told lie after lie after lie and are still at it!

CiderBrains · 21/01/2019 17:16

Because we no longer have a deal as we are leaving. So TMs deal was the only deal on the table other than leave with no deal.

Brexit won't be cancelled because MPs voted against a deal and saying "but we have a deal already " is not an argument because it's no longer a deal on the table..

abbsisspartacus · 21/01/2019 17:19

We can't have her deal Ireland would never go for it she would have known this

HolySwearingCuss · 21/01/2019 17:31

I don't know how much of social media is being manipulated BUT I think if Brexit doesn't happen now there'll be ructions. Lots and lots of people are shouting loudly for no deal. Which is baffling to me.

Bluntness100 · 21/01/2019 18:03

I was watching sky news this morning and a couple of commentators made some interesting comments. That many people are shouting for no deal, but it's not clear if they will be willing to live with the consequences of no deal.

Also one stated that in reality the back lash against politicians and ructions will be even bigger if we do leave with no deal, when people start living those consequences.

In reality of course getting a deal through is now the best option, and I say that as a remainer. Avoid the catastrophic consequences that would then occur with no deal and the subsequent fall out, but still respect the result of the referendum.

Whether she can do it or not is a different story. The polish minister made a comment about giving a concession that would break the dead lock and with merkel calling for further concessions, It would seem the eu leaders may just be considering bending.

1tisILeClerc · 21/01/2019 18:11

The Polish minister is out on a limb, the other 26 won't play.
Mrs Merkel is happy to negotiate things AFTER the WA is signed.
The WA will not be renegotiated as it stands.

Bluntness100 · 21/01/2019 18:25

I think we need to wait and see. She has been talking to them and I'd be very surprised if she was hanging onto further concesssiins if it really is not an option. So I'm suspecting they may be willing to give.

I suspect though it might not be enough.,I also think she might ask parliament to vote on if they want a second referendum. That will focus their minds. Because if it's second referendum, no deal or her deal, her deal might just win it.

Apileofballyhoo · 21/01/2019 19:02

She has spoken to several eu heads so I'd assume she is confident on getting a concession on the back stop, and she's using no deal as the threat to get it.

The EU have been very clear that it is what it is. Saying she's looking for concessions is just running down the clock.

We can't have her deal Ireland would never go for it she would have known this

Ireland as a member state of the EU have signed up to May's Deal.

CurlyWurlyTwirly · 21/01/2019 19:03

I watched the Brexit statement in parliament today. and some parliamentary commentary especially from Chukku Ummuna the MP for Streatham.

He said that the EU will only offer an extension for Article 50 beyond the 29th March, so that a specific event can take place, ie a referendum or a general election. Not for more negotiating.

In parliament, there is no appetite for a referendum from either party, so despite us living in a so called democracy, a People's Vote is definitely not going to happen.

So the 2 options are no deal or Theresa's Deal. If her deal gets voted down, she will have no qualms about calling a general election. She's already done that 2 years ago to ratify a mandate for triggering article 50 in the first place.

Quite frankly, no deal whatsoever is going to be disastrous for the UK.
Jeremy Corbyn's suggestion of a custom's Union is worse than what we have now. We will be half in and half out of the EU, with no possibility of making trade agreements outside the EU.

I think the meeting with Jacinda Arden, the NZ prime Minister today was significant. Theresa mentioned that she had been offered membership of the CPTPP (which I had to google). Its a trans pacific trade bloc. No3 in the world after the North American bloc and the EU is no.2
My feeling is Theresa May wants to sign her WA then be free to negotiate with America.

However we need some sort of agreement with the EU, for the transport of fundamental necessities like food.

Bluntness100 · 21/01/2019 19:04

The EU have been very clear that it is what it is. Saying she's looking for concessions is just running down the clock

I think she will know more than us. And she can't run down the clock, the timelines are all set now.

Somerville · 21/01/2019 19:04

No, it’s really not clever to play chicken at all. And especially not with two other vehicles at the same time. She’s facing up the EU in one direction and parliament in another. If she gets squashed it’s no deal. It’s too high stakes and absolutely stupid.

JenLaBe · 21/01/2019 19:04

Yeah, Chicken.
Only possible issues as there is no way they make a new possible agreement in 10weeks would be to postpone with the article 50.

Then with the new election coming...it is likely to be some else's chicken and I would say...

2nd referendum will be proposed.

Tada!
How magic of politics can work.
Meanwhile the gov will have receive loads of money of everyone flipping out and doing papers extremely expensive or the easy version if £65 proposed by the gov.

Cheecky cheecky one gov.!!

CurlyWurlyTwirly · 21/01/2019 19:08

No the £65 fee has now been cancelled.
Anyway, they have to let the European Commission know by the 7th March if there is going to be a general election, as they meet on the 21st March and need 2 weeks notice.

If TM gets voted down next Tuesday, there will definitely be a general election. And no-one will challenge her for the leadership as it is such a poisoned chalice.

I used to think she was an idiot, but I see she is a shrewd politician.

Bluntness100 · 21/01/2019 19:11

There is already a motion, which will likely get passed, to allow parliament to take control and revoke article 50. So it's not her deal or no deal.

It's her deal or no brexit.

SillySallySingsSongs · 21/01/2019 19:12

They will only extend by a couple of months at most as otherwise it will clash with European elections.

SillySallySingsSongs · 21/01/2019 19:19

If TM gets voted down next Tuesday, there will definitely be a general election. And no-one will challenge her for the leadership as it is such a poisoned chalice

There will be no GE. There aren't the numbers and DUP are never ever going to vote Corbyn. Other parties have said they won't go for Corbyn bringing continual motion of no confidence. It is more likely that Grieves ammendment goes through and a PV is voted on. Not quite the numbers in the house for it but getting there.

A GE election will solve nothing. Labour like Tories are split and voters more so. Corbyn won't be able to keep his wishy washy no commitment to anything, everything whilst nothing, is on the table stance, for much longer.

No one can challenge her for leadership for a year under Tory rules. They gambled going when they did and lost.

Original poster
Alexalee · 21/01/2019 19:24

Bluntness... article 50 won't be revoked

OP posts:
Bluntness100 · 21/01/2019 19:41

If the motion is passed it's a very real risk that it will be revoked.

Think about it there are three options on the table.

Her deal
No deal
No brexit.

Her deal has the most support. A very small minority want no deal. A larger unknown amount want no brexit,

If she can make both these camps think their worst case ie no deal/no brexit is really possible, they are likely to support her deal as the compromise.

Because let's be honest, that's exactly what her deal is the compromise. No dealers will vote for it rather than risk no brexit. Remainers will vote for it rather than risk no deal. She's the only other option they have.

So by making them turn on each other, and understand they risk their worst case, she potentially drives them to support her deal and get this done.

Tanith · 21/01/2019 20:33

If No Deal is the default - the table, as it were, that we cannot rule out - then any referendum should be TM's WA or Revoke.

If the result is a tie, then we're left with No Deal because we can't agree.

"Lots and lots of people are shouting loudly for no deal. Which is baffling to me."

Far more people are not shouting at all. They don't want to be associated with ex-football hooligans spoiling for trouble.

Why should we give the loudest mouths their way when they are in the minority and we have no idea who they are or if they are even resident in this country?
THAT is undemocratic!

CiderBrains · 21/01/2019 20:45

MPs are so naive to think that voting against TMs deal will somehow mean Brexit will be cancelled...

The jig is up. We are leaving the EU so if they vote no deal then no deal is what we get.. it's not a conspiracy to if you say no it's cancelled..

lljkk · 21/01/2019 20:51

Ireland is a member of the EU. The EU cares more about its members than it's stbX-members. Sheesh. Why is that so hard to understand?

On top of that, UK is useless at negotiating or knowing what it wants. Why should EU waste time on any more negotiations knowing that UK govt can not keep any promises (having reneged on backstop).

Bluntness100 · 21/01/2019 20:56

MPs are so naive to think that voting against TMs deal will somehow mean Brexit will be cancelled...

That's not really what they think though is it. They think if they can get an amendment passed to allow them to revoke it then they can cancel it, and they are correct.

And some of them think if they vote it down we can get a better deal and they may be right.

And others think if they vote it down, they can force a general election and make a bid for power and have it cancelled at the same time. They may also be right.

And a very small minority think they can get no deal. They may be right.

Sethis · 21/01/2019 20:58

Chicken is a game played by moronic children and teens, with no possible upside that is worth the risk of death.

So.... yes. That is what she is doing.