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Brexit

Theresa May playing a very clever game of chicken?

31 replies

Alexalee · 21/01/2019 17:00

I think Theresa May is playing and winning a very very clever game of chicken... by ensuring leaving on the 29th march there will be only 1 vote for politicians, her deal or no deal... and there is a lot more support for some deal than no deal at all... as hers is the only deal agreed, she would get her wish.

OP posts:
CiderBrains · 21/01/2019 21:39

Yes because a general election is exactly what the U.K. needs right now because that will solve everything Hmm

Eyewhisker · 21/01/2019 23:21

She is playing a game of chicken but I don’t see what’s so clever about it. The EU won’t budge (no Irish leader wants to be the one who reinstated a border in their country and the EU has to stand up for the interests of its members).

Perhaps some Brexiteers may budge, but frankly enough of them are nutters that believe their own rhetoric.

Her game of chicken is that she has only had one idea and can’t show any flexibility to think of another solution.

If only this wasn’t so serious

DarlingNikita · 23/01/2019 11:40

Chicken is a game played by moronic children and teens, with no possible upside that is worth the risk of death.

So.... yes. That is what she is doing.

Exactly.

EdwinH · 23/01/2019 18:23

There is a supermajority of perhaps 500-550 MPs who see no deal as the apocalypse. You can bet that between now and Brexit Day they will do anything and everything to try and stop it, given that we're now on the Article 50 conveyor belt that will deposit us in the no deal mincer on 29 March at 11pm.

Does that mean no deal is guaranteed not to happen? No. Theresa May could fight off the attempts if she were absolutely determined that no deal would prevail. For instance, Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested today that she should prorogue Parliament (send all the MPs on enforced leave) for as long as it takes to block voting on amendments designed to get rid of no deal.

All forms of Brexit are like a war we're fighting against ourselves. There's Norway+ (sticks and stones), Theresa May's deal (knives and guns), Canada+ (machine guns and tanks).

And then there's no deal. The H bomb. Economic armageddon. So devastating that no rational Government would ever, ever, ever unleash it against its own people.

The EU knows that. So it's not a credible bargaining chip. Pointing a gun at your own head and threatening to pull the trigger never is. It makes the UK look even weaker, because instead of dealing with a rational negotiator, the EU seem to be talking to someone unhinged.

Brexit would have been done and dusted by now if 2 years ago, at the point Theresa May activated Article 50, she'd said "By the way, there is no chance we will ever accept 'no deal' under any circumstances whatsoever. Our intent is to reach the best possible deal we can in 2 years. If we can't achieve that, we will extend or revoke Article 50."

And bang, the Brexiters would have fallen in line. They would have had to, because their dream "global Brexit" (not a thing) would have been shown to be a unicorn before the negotiating process even began (there is about 1/5 to 1/6 support for "no deal" in Parliament, so there are no circumstances in which it would pass IF put to the vote).

So with the ticking clock focusing minds across the Tory party, they would have been forced to coalesce around a single vision of Brexit and then defend that outcome in the negotiations. And, you know what, if it had been even semi-rational, they'd probably have got it.

Instead, Theresa May has played stupid games, and she's played them for so long that there's no way for her to extricate herself without splintering the Tory Party.

Because if she swerves towards hard Brexit, the Tory remainers will leave. If she goes "soft", the ERG will hive themselves off.

And so she dithers and wobbles and goes round and round and round and round in circles, doing exactly the same non-things as a placeholder to avoid that inevitable moment of conflict.

And that's why no deal is still on the table. It's the only reason. Because there is no rational case for it to be there for negotiating purposes.

HopelesslydevotedtoGu · 23/01/2019 20:34

One reason Theresa May might call a General Election is that if she can get a majority without the DUP, she can stick the backstop customs border in the Irish Sea, so NI would stay in the customs union and rUK would be out. The DUP will never agree to this hence why she can't do it now, but it would be economically good for NI (as rUK gets poorer!) and I think a number of English MPs would support the WA if rUK wasn't in the backstop. Whether enough to pass her WA I don't know.

Obviously a gamble as her last GE lost her seats.

However she may judge that a GE will be problematic for labour as their position on Brexit is tricky.
Jeremy Corbyn supports Brexit.
Momentum supports Remain.
JC's young fan club support Remain.
Most labour party members support Remain.
I saw a voter forecast that predicted that switching to a Remain party policy would cost labour seats, due to their marginals being Remain supporting areas.
Most labour MPs voted Remain but many are now publicly backing Brexit to "respect democracy". Would they want to campaign on supporting Brexit in a GE though, when we are so woefully unprepared?

So TM may gamble that labour supporting Brexit may cost JC his enthusiastic young voters, but supporting Remain will also lose seats in brexit-voting areas, so she may be able to get a majority and thus be done with the DUP having to agree on her deal.

I'm not sure if she will call a GE, but she is very fixed on her WA and currently the majority against it is so huge, she may get desperate and feel it's worth the risk.

mummmy2017 · 24/01/2019 22:26

TM knows her deal is not wanted.
It got voted down.
She knows the EU won't budge.
So all she has to do is sit and wait.
If we get no deal, then we come out, she can hold her hands up and say this was not what she wanted and JC comes out as a coward, for not supporting her.....
In her own head she won't be to blame, and she didn't back down... And yes I do think she knows this will happen.

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