If Teresa May is defeated tomorrow will this be good or bad?

[NicoAndTheNiners]

Sorry if this is a dim question.

I've been refusing to watch the news on brexit for ages.

As someone who wants to remain and is praying for a second referendum will it be good if she's defeated? Would we get a second referendum then? Or will we still leave the EU but on worse terms and it will be anarchy?

I really don't know but I stumbled across the Westminsterenders thread earlier and that had some useful posts on it.

I think bad. I’m a remainder but I think we will leave without a deal.

it depends what you would like to see!
If she 'wins' then the WA will be signed off and the relationship with the EU will decline gradually but on 30 March and up to 4 or more years later we would still be in the EU so things are 'kind of' normal, but industry that has been badly shaken by the threat of leaving will be fragmented. We can't know because the real intentions have been hidden.
If she loses then there will be more bickering and infighting so it will get progressively more crazy.
There is no 'good' coming from this, just a variety of bad. The saddest thing is that the social problems that enflamed this won't be addressed at all and there will be a lot less money available to try and fix it.

Nobody really knows! I suppose if it's passed it's the death knell for remain. While it's not passed there's a possibility something else might happen - another referendum or a GE leading to another referendum or a GE leading to a WA that involves staying in SM and CU. But it not passing involves the possibility of a chaotic Brexit with no transition, which would be very very bad.

I suspect bad since I reluctantly support WA.
WA is undesirable situation for EU. WA means UK getting lots of EU benefits without paying for them. Against EU interests to let WA-terms last any longer than UK makes them last.

It's so bloody depressing.

No-one knows. It's all shit either way.

And as LeClerc said, it passing also kicks the can further down the road as it's actually not a deal, it's just a withdrawal agreement, with nothing agreed for future relationship. So resolving the future relationship will involve more negotiations, more debates in parliament, more division. And probably ending up with something shoddy anyway, due to the 'red line' of ending Freedom of Movement.

There are no winners except possibly the disaster capitalists like J R M and his ilk.

Good, she doesn’t even deserve a Pyrrhic victory that the public don’t support. She’ll then be forced to remain or send the UK off the cliff, supposedly giving leavers what they wanted all along. Or she could resign, which I don’t she will prolonging the worst premiership in living memory.

{WA means UK getting lots of EU benefits without paying for them.}
No, the UK is paying during transition.
Originally it was about £19 Billion to cover what is already due up to 29 March, but then another £20 Billion for just under 2 years of transition (total £39 Billion to end of 2020). I think the transition has now been changed but the final sum has not been altered yet.

How 'good' or bad you feel it is depends on what you want to see at the end. The WA isn't the full deal of course. Onlt the backstop, citizens rights and signing off the intention to pay the (XXX) Billion get confirmed. All the actual treaties are to be negotiated during transition. Then it is all down to good negotiators.......Ahem!

Whichever way things go, 29 March is only the START of real negotiations. Unless Revoke happens, there will be 4-10 years of negotiations. That is a hell of a bag of popcorn!

If backstop extends until 2030 or 2050, what will UK pay for it?

If she loses, a whole new set of opportunities arise, the WA is a complete loss of sovereignty and gives us a blind brexit.

Seeing as she said today no deal is a disaster, she then cannot defend choosing it.

I'm hoping if it's a choice between no deal and a second referendum that someone somehow will make the referendum happen.

Its a shit show whichever way it goes but I'm hoping for Article 50 to be revoked and we Remain. Voting against the deal risks no deal at all but TM has said no brexit more likely than no deal which is hopeful. Like others have said, WA is just the start of years of negotiating deals which TM won't be involved in for much longer as she's said she won't stand in the next election. Throw bomb centre stage, exit stage right. Cameron did it before and now she'll do it too.

I'm not sure how much I'll personally be affected by all this (single, SAHM of 3 but going back to work this year as a GP nurse) but really feel for those who are having to figure out where the hell to live and risk losing their jobs.

I was watching the bbc news clip about a twin in Wales where the majority voted leave and the ignorance as to what leaving the eu would mean was horrendous. Maybe they only interviewed the most ignorant and it wasn't a balanced piece of journalism (is it ever) but I was stunned by the simplemindedness of "making our own rules" "jobs for locals" type comments. This is a town where a German factory has closed or is closing due to brexit so god knows how many local jobs have been lost. The mind boggles as my dad would have said.

Town not twin. Need sleep. Was awake worrying about all this last night.

Perverse.

Jc will call vote of no confidence - he won’t win it.

Hopefully TM won’t resign because if she does, with no hope of agreement among the Tory Party as to the next PM it will go to the 300,000 Pro-leave, home-owning, overwhelmingly white, wealthy individual coffee morning organising and raffle ticket selling conservative members (average age 76) to decide our next leader. They will favour a nice well-spoken young man like Dominic Raab who will be our next leader and we will crash out of the EU without a deal.

Basically it's death by slow poisoning or death by jumping off a cliff.
If it's the former, I hope we can develop some sort of remedy, if it's the latter we need a helicopter to swoop in and catch us mid fall.

as to the next PM it will go to the 300,000 Pro-leave, home-owning, overwhelmingly white, wealthy individual coffee morning organising and raffle ticket selling conservative members (average age 76) to decide our next leader. They will favour a nice well-spoken young man like Dominic Raab who will be our next leader and we will crash out of the EU without a deal.

There must be a better alternative :(

The average age of a Conservative party member is 57.

fullfact.org/news/how-old-average-conservative-party-member/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvafK4cPv3wIVhNKyCh2tLgWTEAAYASAAEgKk8PD_BwE

Sorry to be a spoilsport. I enjoyed your post Figment, but I just wanted to introduce a bit of reality!

I love fullfact.org. I run my own business and I can't afford to be spooked by alarmist stuff about remaining or leaving so it's the website I go to when I need to calm down. I don't work for them honest!

Tbh. Bad if she wins the vote, bad if we crash out, bad if we have another vote that will destroy peoples’ faith in democracy. There are no good options here.

There are always good options.

If a group of MPs could somehow pick their way through the political minefield and put us on a path that leads to a Canada style deal, the UK business community would be eternally grateful.

I don't care whether you achieve it by a clean Brexit or some sort of Withdrawal Agreement.

Come on MPs, go cross-party and get your act together for the sake of your country, its future prosperity and democracy.

{ I run my own business and I can't afford to be spooked by alarmist stuff about remaining or leaving so it's the website I go to when I need to calm down. I don't work for them honest!}
OK, to keep it simple for now, what are the workers for BMW, VW, Toyota and Nissan going to do when their factories are closed?
Estimates of the losses vary but between 1 and 2 million.