Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

Am i going to have to write out a detailed plan on how to prepare for no deal? I have to many plates spinning. DP seeing new specialist before March, med changes, diet changes, I need to put his money in a EU transfer banky wanky thing. He keeps getting sicker on me so then I'm busy with that, stop the idiot from dying, he recovers to something less deathy. DWP breathing down my neck with assessments-evidence gathering. PLATES, PLATES, PLATES.

I am being eaten up with anxiety about all this now and don't have anything like your worries, so hugs to you Hazardswan coping with all that as well.

hazard 💐
All that worry over your DP and then to have the DWP making it even more stressful 😡

((( Hazard ))))
If the DWP are being out of order, get your MP on your case
its my new "thang" and it seems to work

hazard and hugs. Hope the new specialist can help your DP.

Awww thanks guys .

Do you think my mp will help even though he's consistently ignored me over brexit and meds? I can't even turn up and cry at him because you have to phone to find out where he is.

My logic is 50/50 on no deal vs revoke but in my head it's got to be revoke because just thinking about managing no deal and it's shite sends me spiralling. In terms of DPs savings (he's on non income related esa your allowed savings) which has saved his life so far and we're using to top up our living standards (because the benefits SUCK). But if the pound tanks, his private prescription med increases in price, food prices rise and we can't sustain ourselves for long. So even if I do prepare it feels like what's the point? What ever I do we can't sustain ourselves long term unless DP gets well and we both return to work.

And i know we're not the only ones vulnerable so many of us are in multiple and different ways. It makes me so angry on behalf of everyone. And I want to fix it all but I can't.

UK CEOs make more in first three days of 2019 than worker's annual salary

‘Sickening’ Fat Cat Friday figures show the disparity is growing

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/04/uk-ceos-make-more-in-first-three-days-of-2019-than-workers-annual-salary

^ “Fat Cat Friday”,^
4 January is the date by which the average CEO of a FTSE 100 company pockets the equivalent take-home pay of a typical full-time worker in the UK.

After reading lolettas post I might as well stop taking my meds. At least I won't have to worry if I've got enough or not ( good job I'm an optimist)

My logic is 50/50 on no deal vs revoke

I still think the deal will pass ... eventually. There aren't enough votes for no deal, but there also aren't the numbers or the political courage for revoke. May gets some cosmetic changes to the political declaration and Corbyn whips his MPs to support the WA. You'd have big rebellions on both sides (ERG and the remain diehards would vote against - basically the MPs who voted against triggering A50, plus the Tory headbangers and the DUP) - but in that scenario it eventually gets through the HoC with a comfortable majority.

hazardsswan. DWP tried to reassess me 4 weeks before I retired. They had no hope of doing it because it takes 2 months now! At the same time I had to change from DLA to PIPS in the middle of cancer treatment (July) took my MP a while to sort that one out, and then because I survived past the 6 months they have now ( last week) asked me to go through whole assessment again cos I'm still alive. MP busy with that one now. I have today received an email he sent me with an apology from DWP concerning my old ESA claim ( which I don't get anymore cos I retired) but as yet not an apology directly to me. So yeah! Can symphathise with you wholeheartedly. My advice is get as many specialist letters you can. ( I had 6) it will help also don't forget physios, occupational therapists, etc and your own doctor. The more evidence you get together the more chance you have of being successful. My thoughts and prayers with you.

Misti you are relying on the MPs finding common sense and a sense of duty to their constituents & the contry.
Sometimes I tell myself this too 🤞
then I look at the track record

No Deal doesn't require any votes at all,
merely to squabble and dither without doing anything

So well within the skill set of the HoC and govt

Contrary to beliefs I held my local Tory MP has been excellent in helping me. He's a local man lives in the county all his life so maybe he understands a bit better about our deprived area. He's aware I don't vote Tory but he's welcome round for a cuppa and slice of cake

I've read posts by a few sheep farmers claiming that in the event of No Deal, DEFRA has contingency plans for mass slaughter of stock,

because food exports to the EU will stop for 6 months+ because of EU phytosanitary rules, until the UK gets on all the 3rd country databases.
(6 months estimate is RNorth too)

Gove seems to be saying 40% tariffs instead, or maybe he means after the 6 months are up and exports can restart ?

Channel 4 News@Channel4News

“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit… tariffs on beef and sheep meat would be above 40%”

Environment Secretary Michael Gove warns of problems for farmers in the event of no-deal, and urges MPs to back the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal.

Beginning to agree with misty about WA scraping through. The HoC and this government are the most spineless, self-serving bunch of selfish people ever to come together in one place.

Where's Guy Fawlkes when you need him?

Far-right activist Tommy Robinson is ‘secretly being lined up to lead Ukip’

Not surprising, fits with Batten's far right views.
All primed to take advantage after a No Deal Brexit, with a country looking for scapegoats for its own bad choices

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8106836/tommy-robinson-secretly-lead-ukip/amp/?

Multiple sources inside the party have separately told this newspaper of behind-the-scenes plans to install the English Defence League (EDL) founder as leader when current boss Gerard Batten quits.
....
Insiders said plans for a party-wide ballot on lifting the ban for Robinson to join is part of a longer-term strategy to make him Ukip leader so the party can benefit from his huge backing across the country.

One senior source said: “This is Gerard’s ultimate plan.”
Another said: “Gerard only listens to Tommy Robinson. They’re best buddies.”

The WA is far better than the hardship that would come from No Deal

Rather have a revoke than the WA and that's from one who leant (only slightly) to leave.

Since the WA isn't a deal but is a means of buying more time, may I try to convince myself that the will of the people will change within the next two years and it becomes clear that the appetite for leaving the EU is now a minority opinion?

No, thought not.

John Redwood criticizing Gove and saying he should stop trying to delay brexit .
Redwood has also laid out a series of questions he wants Gove to answer, including: “When will he and Dr Fox publish the UK tariff schedule for March 30 2019 to trade under WTO rules? Our farmers and traders need to know now.”

Hands up for those that think May will delay vote on WA again? Dare she do it?

Hazardswan, Sosentueto . I’m so sorry the DWP are being such arses. It’s the last thing either of you need. You both sound like you have it covered but, just in case, and as you haven’t mentioned it, have either of you gone onto the Benefits and You website? Lots of useful advice, especially if you pay to become a member (I think it’s £20 odd a year). They have helped loads of people get assessment decisions overturned. Worth a look.

Since the WA isn't a deal but is a means of buying more time, may I try to convince myself that the will of the people will change within the next two years and it becomes clear that the appetite for leaving the EU is now a minority opinion?

Peregrina Please convince me too. I live in hope of this. On the other hand, couldn’t the WA period also allow time for a hard liner to replace May and pull us out without a deal? Or for the Government to just continue to bicker its way incompetently towards crashing out with No Deal two years down the line?

It seems to me the only realistic options are No Deal now or WA leading to possibly a deal or possibly No Deal later.

Anyway, we seem to be told repeatedly that the only will of the people that matters is the will of just over half the people as it was on one day back in the summer of 2016.

But, if the WA passes I shall cling on to that hope, however slim, of a greater drift in sentiment towards wanting Remain and that sentiment being acknowledged and acted on at some point in the next couple of years.

Sorry to add to anyone's anxiety or fear, but I actually think that Umair Haque is holding back in terms of his grim assessment.

The reason being that people don't like to think about bad things, especially really bad things that might happen to them or their country.

People get use to the lives they currently have. The harsher a prediction about something bad coming down the road, the harder it is for them to accept it because it is so far removed from their current experiences. So they want and even have a real need to reject it.

There is a great youtube clip of Jeremy Irons in the movie " Margin Call " during the boardroom scene. He explains to a young analyst that the reason he is the head honcho is that he can look down the road and make a big decision based on what he sees or hears.

After hearing what the analyst had to say he states that not only has the music slowed down but that it has stopped because he doesn't hear a thing, only silence.

Realizing that his company is facing imminent absolute economic destruction he makes a quick decision to have his team sell all of their toxic assets the very next day no matter the cost to their reputation so that the firm can survive.

Most people no matter how smart or experienced simply aren't prepared to look at the demon coming down the road and to make a very hard decision regarding it.

The more appropriate model for where the UK will end up post a no-deal exit in my opinion is not the USA but rather more like Venezuela.

I wish I could be more optimistic.