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Brexit

Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

994 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/12/2018 00:26

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
25
1tisILeClerc · 04/01/2019 08:37

{And even if we were to cancel Brexit, those firms won't move back in a hurry.}
With the background paperwork necessary and cost of moving anything 'abroad' any that go will not come back.
SKY reporting the majority of Tories would prefer a 'no deal' over WA, by a large margin. Theresa has work to do.

lonelyplanetmum · 04/01/2019 08:59

I don't see many positives in this whole quagmire ... but being philosophical there are some benefits elsewhere.

More jobs in Ireland, less annoying MEPs from UKIP being a useless EU embarrassment. Jobs have also moved to Paris and Frankfurt so looking at it holistically there are benefits elsewhere. As we lose our fifth economic place, other countries will gain. As our Universities research reputation descends presumably other countries universities attract the best people and funding and their reputation ascends?

Why should the U.K. have a bigger slice of the pie? Sort of seeing positives in defeat- thoughts of nemesis and humility.

Mrsr8 · 04/01/2019 09:05

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

1tisILeClerc · 04/01/2019 09:26

{MEPs from UKIP being a useless EU embarrassment}
Unless the UK revokes A50 there will be no UK MEPs, must be worth a few Euros (to Europeans).
Germany, Holland and I expect many more have Uni courses taught in English.

lonelyplanetmum · 04/01/2019 09:28

Unless the UK revokes A50 there will be no UK MEPs

That's what I mean. Looking at the whole clusterfuck philosophically - ultimately there are some benefits for other EU and other countries from our departure and decline.

Mrsr8 · 04/01/2019 09:29

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DGRossetti · 04/01/2019 09:37

The upside will be all the reimagined shows we can look forward to:

Pol(not too)dark - gripping modern day drama set in Cornwall, following the fortunes of the local folk as they watch their houses being bought up by average-means-foreigners after the collapse of sterling. Undaunted, and with no thoughts (a running theme) for others, they turn to people smuggling migrants from France with no soul-searching whatsoever. ( Dr. Syn meets Dr. No - The Mail )

Last of the summer whine - whimsical comedy following the misadventures of three old duffers as they amuse the locals of an unnamed shire town with their wonderfully bad memories of how things used to be. ( A tour de force for Farage, Fox and Johnson - The Independent )

Porridge - celebrity cooking show where guests share their favourite no-deal-dishes

Wallender - gritty noir drama following the delicate balance of life on the end of the non-NI-border. Shot entirely in nightvision. ( We never knew our most English actor was from Belfast - The Telegraph )

No boys from the blackstuff - reality show following the fortunes of recent arrivals to the UK.

The Antiques Roadshow - Members of the public bring in rarities for the experts to value. Expect photographs of fresh food, and menus from pre-2019 to feature heavily.

... on a more serious note, just reviewing that list above, you have to give thanks for that fact that generally, Tory governments have never invested in the arts ....

Peregrina · 04/01/2019 09:50

I assume the mostly elderly Tories who want no deal are comfortable enough to ride out the storm, although I have to wonder what they will do if they need any sort of care and most EU carers have gone home. Still that's for them to worry about. I would hope that no deal would wreck the Tory party for at least a generation and preferably for all time, but they have a nasty habit of blaming everyone else and reinventing themselves.

prettybird · 04/01/2019 09:54

Talking about the Troubles (what a horrible euphemism Sad), over Christmas the BBC showed a couple of "lost" episodes of the Morecambe and Wise Show that had been found in Sierra Leone and restored.

In one of them, there was a long sketch with Ronnie Carroll about the IRA, set in a Dublin pub and involving lots of hitting each other over the head, double agents and guns Shock.

Dh and I had to look up when it was originally aired - 1968 - which must have been shortly before the Troubles began, as otherwise it would have been totally insensitive and very unlike Eric and Ernie. Confused

1tisILeClerc · 04/01/2019 10:02

{ I would hope that no deal would wreck the Tory party for at least a generation and preferably for all time,}
Although it might sound an attractive idea, for the UK 'democracy' to work it MUST have a viable opposition. Some of Labours plans sound good but there are many that are crap. Baling out industries that have refused to modernise in the past for one. The clamouring for pay rises for workers is all well and good but there has to be an increase in overall productivity to pay for the pay rise so it needs a holistic approach.

DGRossetti · 04/01/2019 10:05

In one of them, there was a long sketch with Ronnie Carroll about the IRA, set in a Dublin pub and involving lots of hitting each other over the head, double agents and guns

The past really is a foreign country. However it does tell you what the "popular" view of the day was.

I recall a history teacher explaining that the reason the Irish had become synonymous with stupidity was down to the navvies of yore, who tended to be Irish, and ill-educated. Navvying being the only work they could do. The more educated Irish stayed in Ireland.

1tisILeClerc · 04/01/2019 10:08

Looking for 'benefits' of leaving and having been reading the thread {How did they get into my car?} I suppose with the long queues at ferry ports at least cars are less likely to be stolen and taken out of the country.

DGRossetti · 04/01/2019 10:11

it needs a holistic approach.

The problem is the British - English certainly - have been too well trained to ignore facts and do things by "feel". Which leads to a whack-a-mole policy game, as one logical sensible approach bumps into "da feelz" next door. Look at how brainwashed* they have been into believing cracking down on benefit fraud will make the slightest bit of difference.

*using MN as an exemplar

Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019
1tisILeClerc · 04/01/2019 10:11

Talking of 'old' shows, I have been watching Dave Allen (RIP) on Yooootoobe.

DGRossetti · 04/01/2019 10:12

I suppose with the long queues at ferry ports at least cars are less likely to be stolen and taken out of the country.

A lot of cars stolen whole are in pieces and out of the country within 2 days.

1tisILeClerc · 04/01/2019 10:18

DGR
'Please sir, I know the answer to this one, I would go for the benefit fraud because they might not be Tory voters' and worse, some might be furrin.'*

The previous sentence was written in a vague sense of humour and might not be in the slightest bit true.

1tisILeClerc · 04/01/2019 10:20

(A lot of cars stolen whole are in pieces and out of the country within 2 days.}
Mine was very nearly one of them, but it was abandoned on the pavement 50 metres down the road. £500 to get the steering column replaced.

DGRossetti · 04/01/2019 10:35

Mine was very nearly one of them, but it was abandoned on the pavement 50 metres down the road. £500 to get the steering column replaced.

Many years ago, a policeman told me of a gang of Mensa members(*) who decided the best place to steal their getaway car from was a local repair workshop, which they duly did.

Into bank, waved a shotgun around, got "the readies" and back into car, revved up and .... the clutch had gone. At least they had the sense to dump the shotguns as they tried to run away or it would have been less funny.

If nothing else, the cashless society has made bank and wages snatches a thing of the past. (Small consolation to anyone whose lives were ruined by being injured in one Sad )

*That, also may not be quite the truth. Like the bank robbers that used a sawn-off Purdy to get a couple of thousand in a heist. Sadly I suspect that transcript isn't online.

1tisILeClerc · 04/01/2019 11:11

If they had taken it successfully they would have been a bit disappointed as it is a truly unique vehicle, starting with a custom chassis, so practically valueless.

Ta1kinPeace · 04/01/2019 12:12

sosten
AutoEnrollment pension percentages are climbing.
Its possible to opt out completely, but it depends on how much the employer is paying in to see whether its worth it

DGRossetti · 04/01/2019 13:05

bbc.co.uk
'No way' DUP will back Brexit deal
5-6 minutes
Sammy Wilson and Nigel Dodds in Downing Street in October Image copyright Reuters
Image caption Sammy Wilson and Nigel Dodds (file picture) met Theresa May for lunch on Thursday to discuss Brexit

There is "no way" the Democratic Unionist Party will back Theresa May's Brexit deal, a leading figure has said.

Sammy Wilson told the BBC he was "more alarmed" than ever about what the deal would mean for Northern Ireland.

The DUP, which props up the Tory government, has held talks with the PM in recent days as she tries to persuade MPs to back the deal later this month.

The PM is seeking further legal assurances from the EU but it has said negotiations will not be re-opened.

The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.

MPs will decide whether to accept or reject the withdrawal terms negotiated by Mrs May, as well as the framework of future relations, in a vote expected on 15 January.

The vote was due to be held in December but Mrs May postponed it after it became clear she would be heavily defeated.

In the three weeks since then, she has been appealing to EU leaders to do more to allay MPs' concerns over parts of the agreement, particularly the proposed Irish backstop.

This arrangement would see the UK tied to EU rules if the two sides' future relationship is not settled by the end of 2020, when the proposed transition period will end, or if another way is not found of preventing physical checks on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Mrs May, who is due to speak to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker later, insists it is a contingency plan that all sides agree should not be needed.

But the DUP are adamantly opposed, saying it will create new barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK and could end up as the default template for future relations.

Media playback is unsupported on your device
Media caption"A problem created in the United Kingdom" - Taoiseach Leo Varadkar on Brexit

Mr Wilson, the DUP's Brexit spokesman, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that little had changed since mid-December and his party believed the backstop was a "con trick" that was being imposed on the UK.

Asked if there was any way the party could support the PM's deal, he replied "no there is not".

"It is not just because of the regulations which Northern Ireland would be subject to with the backstop, but also the fact we would have to treat the rest of the UK as a third country and we would not participate in any trade deals which the UK may enter into the future".

On Thursday, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said the border issue was the only "red line" his country has had in the Brexit negotiations and that would not change.

While he and other EU leaders were prepared to offer assurances and clarifications to help Mrs May get the agreement through Parliament, he said it has "to be a proposal that we can accept".

"It can't be a proposal that contradicts what is already in the withdrawal agreement," he said. "It can't be something that renders the backstop inoperable, for example."

The DUP have said talk of the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland is "nonsense propaganda", since neither London nor Dublin wants it or is willing to construct the infrastructure.

Mr Wilson said NI businesses should not be scared by the prospect of leaving without a deal despite warnings from British ministers that it could lead to big tariffs on food exports.

"If anyone should be worried about the tariffs on beef and sheep then it should be the Irish because, of course, we, the United Kingdom, are net importers of food," he said.

The BBC understands that up to 40 Conservative MPs are likely to vote against the Brexit agreement even if Mrs May secures further concessions on the backstop.

This would mean almost certain defeat for Mrs May, since Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP have all vowed to vote against the deal.

Many Tory members of the European Research Group remain opposed to the UK handing over £39bn, as part of the proposed financial settlement, in return for what they say are vague promises over future trading terms.

New research also suggests opposition to Mrs May's deal among Conservative party members.

A survey of 1,215 Tory members, conducted by Queen Mary University and Sussex University, found 57% would vote to leave without a deal in a future referendum, compared with 23% who support the current deal and 15% who would prefer to remain in the EU.
'Red line'

Ta1kinPeace · 04/01/2019 13:07

Re Seabourne Freight
On my Linkedin is a post by Mark Dickinson of Nautilus International
pointing out that all crew recruitment is being done through the linked company Clearwater International
(who have a policy of hiring cheap offshore rather than British labour)
and that the route is going to Belgium
because the French have stricter rules about EU staff on EU routes
you could not make it up !

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/01/2019 13:10

well, It's going to be a helluva lot easier for asylum applicants to cross over is all I'm saying at this point...

Member745520 · 04/01/2019 13:38

ThereWillBeAdequateFood Thu 03-Jan-19 21:42:49

How come Theresa gets as many votes as she likes, but the country is stuck with a 30 month old one

I was just thinking the exact same thing DRG

...the same thoughts have been simmering in my brain (and sometimes boiling over) for many days now Hmm

1tisILeClerc · 04/01/2019 13:48

One of the common words related to the whole issue of Brexit is hippocracy.
From a Home Secretary who is part Pakistani, helping to turf out 'foreigners' to NI demanding to be treated the same as the rest of the UK but wanting 'special' arrangements on abortion and other aspects.

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