Westminstenders: Welcome to 2019

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to 2019.

Bit of a different thread starter; instead of me speculating what are your predictions for the coming year politically? Will be interesting to see how people are viewing things right now.

How is Brexit going to play out?

Who is going to be framed as the scapegoat for whatever scenario you think likely?

What are going to be the biggest political issues that the media / politicians push (as opposed to what the real issues are)?

What is going to be the most shocking thing that will happen either here or abroad?

What will happen with Trump?

Who will be the next Tory leader and when?

Whats on the cards for the various political parties in general?

More than 1 in 3 of the population of Iceland live in the capital city...

The entire population of Iceland is... 330,000 with most of the rest of the population still living within a hours drive of Reykjavik.

It's not exactly big. Nor comparible.

Though it is having issues with housing being used as holiday let's which is pricing locals outs and tourists putting an incredible strain on the infrastructure.

There were 2 million visitors to Iceland in 2017.

(contrast with UK where there were 36 million visitors in 2015)

www.customhousegroup.com/menu/

Wrt the fairies ferries that will materialise in March.

Somewhat related, I suspect, to the tale of the 75p from upthread.

I agree with Hasenstein - it was the delay caused by conquering the Balkans and Greece that was significant, not the Battle of Britain.

Winter struck a little earlier than usual in 1941 so the Nazis were doubly disadvantaged by the delay.

www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jan/01/councils-ripped-off-by-private-landlords-experts-warn?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwAR17ArUou76HsbVEhQI7tx8c_84iJpQt0TORtb3nxunTTWzLXVdRp-ahprw
Councils ‘ripped off’ by private landlords, experts warn

• New figures reveal English councils spend almost £1bn a year on temporary housing

The number of homeless households in England in temporary accommodation has risen by 47% in the last five years, according to official figures. At the end of June this year, there were 82,310 families in temporary accommodation, up from 55,840 in June 2013.

In an illustration of the extent of the capital’s housing crisis, all 32 London boroughs appeared among the top 45 local authorities with the highest per capita spend on temporary accommodation.

About 55,000 London households are living in temporary accommodation, and almost 70% of England’s homeless families are based in the capital. Only about 6% of London’s private rental market is available to families relying on housing benefit.

Most London councils rely on small private landlords to provide their temporary accommodation. In many cases landlords can make more profit from accommodation at the bottom end of the market if it is rented to councils for homeless households.

It all reminds me of 'Utopia' by Thomas More.
“We did not ask if he had seen any monsters, for monsters have ceased to be news. There is never any shortage of horrible creatures who prey on human beings, snatch away their food, or devour whole populations; but examples of wise social planning are not so easy to find.”

Plus ca change...

Don't know if this has been posted ... the govt snuck it out while everyone was distracted by eating leftover turkey and getting into a panic about an "invasion" by few dozen desperate Iraqis.

researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8397/CBP-8397.pdf

Thank, Misti I missed that.

I see
"The Government believes a no-deal scenario could be managed in an “orderly” fashion
(although this view is not necessarily shared by other stakeholders)."

Thanks Mistigri.
I gave up reading before the end, is there a good punchline?

{There is no EU offer of side- or mini-deals and the Commission has called for continued solidarity among the EU27. So there could still be a period of undeterminable length in which the UK and the EU are without any agreements on withdrawal or post-Brexit relations, and possibly little good will among the EU27 towards the UK.}
It does manage to state the obvious that the longer it takes to actually decide the worse things will get.
The fact that it says new computer systems for HMRC typically take 2 years to get going and also that there is reference to 'procurement in the near future' suggests that it won't be ready. I suppose having a non functioning HMRC will be handy for the disaster capitalists as their dealings drop off the radar.

Thanks @Mistigri - a read over lunch at work.

Poster 'Surferjet' has bounced in on another thread saying she wants no deal. I have copied the link from Mistigri so that Surfer and others can get an idea of how things are going.

It's not a particularly satisfying read - there is a lot of "he said she said" - but my first impression having skimmed it this morning is that it is honest.

It is not very complete though - a lot is left unsaid particularly the fine detail of matters that are covered by NDAs.

Of course it wouldn't include anything that is subject to a NDA, which of course as it is (presumably) intended mainly for consumption by the HoC and others who need to know the state of play, does make it only 'half a document' as knowing what is covered and hidden by the NDAs changes the picture completely. If for example they reveal that with a 'no deal' scenario then all EU and other international companies investing in the UK were to have an opportunity to sue the UK government for breaches of contracts it would be a massive game changer. Even the written proposals by the various firms to leave the UK would be significant.

LeClerc I can sometimes respect someone who wants No Deal as a reset button for a grossly unequal society
(although I think they'd just get a fair more unequal one)

However, I despise those who want No Deal as a punishment for those they disappprove of

• usually the young / anyone on the left of JRM / those on benefits -

especially when they gleefully assume they themselves will be immune from significant effects

It is the typical HoC briefing paper, trying to be neutral,
giving facts and also opinions from various sides of the political divide.

What will be interesting is if / when that rumoured No Deal information pack will be issued to all households.
The govt may not be able to agree on sending it out, hence leaving people in blissful ignorance as long as possible

*It is the typical HoC briefing paper
*
It may be my biased view, but I think that the HoC briefing papers on Brexit are far less detailed, basic are very superficial compared to say HR related ones I've seen in the past. I think this is reflective of the fact that the civil service authors can't be expected to have a better or reassuring vision of possible solutions to explore. This because there simply isn't anything better than what we had.

A high level briefing paper saying the following isn't good enough, frankly:

"
Food supply
Half of the UK’s food and drink supply comes from within the UK, with 30% from the EU and 20% from the rest of the world. Potential disruption to food supplies immediately after a no-deal Brexit has been given regular media coverage. Former Exiting the EU Secretary Dominic Raab told the Exiting the EU Committee that the Government would “look at this issue in the round and make sure that there is adequate food supply...”. The retail sector is concerned about the practicalities of stockpiling food. The chief executive of the food and drink federation told MPs on the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee that warehouses around the UK for frozen and chilled food were “for all practical purposes booked out at the moment”.

The head of the FDF with decades of industry experience gave a serious public warning to the govt over 18 months ago.

Nothing about Brexit even attempts to 'fix' what is wrong with the UK, but worse, leaving the EU will suck vastly more resources and divert attention to any attempt to make corrections. A 'close working partnership' outside the EU would make sense but there is no outward sign of this being facilitated by the UK government who so far have done everything possible to 'rub the EU up the wrong way', from deliberate slurs on individuals in the EU to ALWAYS being late to present at meetings.

I think that is because no other topic since Suez has been so politically explosive
and the requirement for neutrality is making the briefings very verbose and less precise than other topics.

However, "typical" in the sense of trying to provide as much information as possible to enable the politicians to decide on their actions.

LeClerc I distinguish between those with whom I strongly disagree, but hink mean well
and those who wish to use Brexit as deliberate punishment against groups they despise

{It is the typical HoC briefing paper}
The trouble is that the subject matter of Brexit is far too broad and deep for MPs to actually understand so it does have to be 'dumbed down'.
Implications of what is being discussed occur to the minds of RTB, BCF and others on here as they either have training in reading such material, or are deeply interested in the subject. Similarly HoL,

The trouble is that the subject matter of Brexit is far too broad and deep for MPs to actually understand so it does have to be 'dumbed down'.

Too broad for most MPs and most referendum voters to understand...

Seeing it like this , it's like the emperor's new clothes. A nation of poorly politically and economically educated voters, choosing a path led by a load of leaders who don't understand it either.

Looking at it like this is terrifying - my Panic button is pressed.

Sadiq Khan’s ‘political’ NYE fireworks display which a Brexit MEP described as an affront to democracy

That was an actual MP, Andrew Bridgen.
The MEP (a UKIP-per, ex-Tory) was Roger Helmer, who also asked, 'Would he have shown an Argentinian flag during the Falklands war?'

Listened to the press review on Sky News last night. Sebastien Whathisface, who up until then had been surprisingly reasonable, complained that the fireworks as "an affront to the 40% of Londoners who'd voted Leave" and that it was an insult to democracy

I'm written to Sadiq to thank him and show support.

I was a bit tired of London before 2016,- it's busy, polluted, fast paced etc.

Now I see the benefits London is s proudly diverse city in so many ways. Hundreds of thousands of EU citizens are and always will be Londoners.