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Brexit
Original poster

How to avoid a no deal Brexit...

31 replies

CraicMammy · 12/12/2018 19:54

If the deal isn’t in place by the deadline, we can revoke the Article 50 notice to leave*; then invoke it at a later date if and when we want to.... right?

*ECJ says we can do this unilaterally

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 12/12/2018 20:14

I think you are a bit confused.
The choice now is ONLY No deal, the WA agreement (with the backstop) or Remain, which would be done by revoking A50.
At this point in time there are no more options.
Revoking is of course possible but invoking it again would be only possible after a considerable amount of time, possibly 10-15 years.
Although the requirements were a bit loose I would expect the A50 text to be changed once this mess is over.

ragged · 12/12/2018 20:17

Why would UK be required to wait 10-15 yrs before invoking A50 again?

MyNameIsArthur · 12/12/2018 20:25

I think the rule was that it can only be revoked if the decision to do it has been made in a democratic process such as a vote in parliament, a general election or a referendum. Revoking it has to be genuine and in good faith and not some delay tactic to do it again some time soon when we are maybe better prepared!

1tisILeClerc · 12/12/2018 20:32

Myname covers it better. Since the process is so incredibly expensive and disruptive there has to be a mechanism to prevent countries doing the hokey cokey.

Original poster
CraicMammy · 12/12/2018 21:00

Wouldn’t revocation be possible using Royal Perogative if needs be?

No one loses and rights by it being revoked, so I don’t see that a referendum/parliamentary approval is necessary from a constitutional perspective.

OP posts:
Original poster
CraicMammy · 12/12/2018 21:13

I don’t think there is any legal reason why there would have to be a delay before triggering Article 50 again

OP posts:
Talkinpeece · 12/12/2018 21:22

I don’t think there is any legal reason why there would have to be a delay before triggering Article 50 again
Read what the ECJ Advocate said.
The EU would not accept a bounce back trigger of A50

Original poster
CraicMammy · 12/12/2018 21:32

Ok fair do’s, i’d Love to have the time to read the judgment, but we still don’t need to have a no-deal Brexit. We could revoke until a solution to how you check people’s ID and goods without checking their ID and goods at the UK border in Ireland is found.

OP posts:
VikingVolva · 12/12/2018 22:08

As Parliament voted for the triggering of A50, then it cannot be done without Parliamentary authority.

MPs voted for us to leave, and there really aren't backsies

We might have had a better deal had there been a different GE outcome (strong PM has more clout) but we have the House we have, then the choice is really this deal or no deal. The time for innovative thinking on possible better arrangements has been and gone. No point in squandering time on hand-wringing though, it's time to decide whether no deal is better than deal you don't entirely like.

Or do people really think there's a genuine chance of a different deal?

GD12 · 12/12/2018 22:53

Viking, there can't be a different deal. Any deal requires a backstop for the GFA. No PM would've got a better deal.

VikingVolva · 12/12/2018 23:02

I tend to agree with you. Though as Ireland is non-Schengen, there were elements that couid perhaps have been worked into a more acceptable compromise. But no point in trying now.

I think the negotiations wouid have been quite different had EU really believed it could end in No Deal.

And I now think the chances of that happening are rather higher.

GD12 · 12/12/2018 23:14

But a no deal requires a hard border and contravening the GFA tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

GD12 · 12/12/2018 23:14

^Probably requires a hard border. If any government pushes that through, God knows what the consequences would be.

VikingVolva · 12/12/2018 23:21

Yup. If EU wants to force that situation, elements of GFA are gone.

Trade does not require a hard border, and any wranglings over discrimination could take years (or decades) to sort out (see history of length of WTO negotiations, disputes and other issues) by which time it may well all be otiose.

GD12 · 12/12/2018 23:25

It would surely be crazy not to protect your border. This would allow any goods into your country. You need regulatory checks. What other country in the world operates like this?

1tisILeClerc · 12/12/2018 23:34

Having a border for goods in the Irish sea is a workable solution if it wasn't for the DUP objecting, I believe all others would be content with that. This objection is a bit nonsensical as there are already a variety of different laws and regulations with respect to NI.

bellinisurge · 13/12/2018 06:23

I agree that a border in the sea would do it. What people need to remember is that Ireland (as per GFA and courtesy of a referendum ) no longer has a constitutional claim on NI. Not saying that simple demographics won't one day seek unification with NI but that unification is not universally yearned for in Ireland. It's a bit more complicated in reality. My Irish Mum told me this years ago. This is also a theme in Irish media.

bellinisurge · 13/12/2018 06:28

Sorry, I meant unification with Ireland

1tisILeClerc · 13/12/2018 08:51

The time for serious discussions about a possible reunification is not now.

Motheroffourdragons · 13/12/2018 10:16

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This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

bellinisurge · 13/12/2018 10:18

@Motheroffourdragons if you can't have a second set of rules for part of tbe country why can NI have rules banning abortion and equal marriage? Fundamental UK civil rights. Except in NI.

1tisILeClerc · 13/12/2018 10:19

{There are too many people failing to remember that we are all one country here - you cannot have a second set of rules for one region.}
Abortion and a host of other issues are already different in NI.
The presence or absence of a border to satisfy trade is on a limited range and quantity of goods.

Motheroffourdragons · 13/12/2018 10:21

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

bellinisurge · 13/12/2018 10:33

Border in the sea- NI as a special economic area (like the border areas of Hong Kong before the UK lease on HK ran out and we had to return it). NI gets the best of both worlds.

jasjas1973 · 13/12/2018 11:33

Even i can see a border in the Irish sea means NI stays in SM and CU, totally splits the UK and i'd be dead against it.
Remember, the UK voted to leave the eu as a whole.

The Scots would insist on similar arrangements, maybe London could stay in the SM/CU as well ?

The solution to the NI border is that the UK either revokes art50 or stays in a permanent CU with the EU, there is no other solution.