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Brexit

So what happens now

72 replies

StealthPolarBear · 10/12/2018 15:47

Vote delayed.
But no more information.
Speculation welcome as I have no clue.

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 11/12/2018 14:53

{We should have said no deal. Planned for it and anything else was a bonus.}
My inbox is full of the UK Gov 'no deal' tech notices. The UK is at least a year late in terms of preparation, more for some aspects.

bellinisurge · 11/12/2018 14:53

@blackcurrantjam - there has to be absolutely nothing. Not anywhere on the border. Not even a little camera or a bar code reader or a special truck lane on the wider roads. Nothing. Anything else contradicts GFA. And presents a target which will make everyone in the area feel unsafe. And that's the least worst outcome.

blackcurrantjam · 11/12/2018 14:55

In your opinion Bellini. You really think either side is going to start picking off construction workers because of minimal infrastructure. Not even Sinn Fein are threaterning to start doing that Hmm. It is completely implausible.

bellinisurge · 11/12/2018 14:57

@blackcurrantjam - have you done any research into the Troubles?
Forget what Sinn Fein say or claim to believe.
The "why can't we all just be nice" option is GFA. Pick away at it at your peril.
How old are you? ish. Not sarcasm. Genuine question.

FishesaPlenty · 11/12/2018 14:59

Nope. If it is going in or out of the Eurozone (or under WTO rulings) it is to be 100% checked.

This is simply not true.

MiggledyHiggins · 11/12/2018 14:59

Not even Sinn Fein are threaterning to start doing that

I think you mean the IRA.

Sinn Fein are a political party.

blackcurrantjam · 11/12/2018 14:59

have you done any research into the troubles? omg. you literally have no idea of my personal history regarding NI and ROI. you are only picking at me personally because it suits you to make it a problem. you don't want a solution. because you are a proper remoaner and your posts are just so obviously and transparently biased.

bellinisurge · 11/12/2018 15:01

@MiggledyHiggins , I think it's a bit more complicated than that but I am willing for the sake of argument to pretend that neither Sinn Fein or DUP are connected in any way to paramilitaries.

bellinisurge · 11/12/2018 15:03

@blackcurrantjam . I'm not making the problem. The problem is there without my help.
My solution is a border in the sea and make NI a free trade zone/special economic area.
Which is unacceptable to the DUP

blackcurrantjam · 11/12/2018 15:04

MiggledyHiggins No. I mean Sinn Fein. The history is more complex than separating the two in the way that I think you mean to do.

blackcurrantjam · 11/12/2018 15:05

you're not making a problem but you want to keep it a problem. Your solution is untenable.

bellinisurge · 11/12/2018 15:09

I know it's untenable @blackcurrantjam . But so is any infrastructure on the border.
I'm sorry if my repeatedly pointing this out makes me an old meanie spoiling your fun.
If my solution is untenable, I'm ready to support a TM Deal with a backstop to get us out of the EU as the majority who voted wanted. I won't support anything that leads to No Deal.

GirlsBlouse17 · 11/12/2018 18:51

Someone in the DUP was talking about this on tv a few days ago. There were a series of lectures - Bruge lectures? Anyway, he said that there is no need for a hard border and checks at the border. He said any legitimate companies will comply with whatever laws there are because they don't want to risk heavy fines and backdated penalties if inspectors check over their records and find non compliance. There are paper records, electronic records and audit trails etc that can be checked at any time. With regards to collecting tariffs, the infrastructure is already in place to do this, because they already collect tax and vat, and none of this is done on the border. I was less convinced with his answer though about checks of physical produce crossing the border as he just said in reality this would not happen as it doesn't happen with other countries. He reckoned though that the EU are just making the NI border an issue because it's there way of keeping us tied to a customs union. I dont really know much about all this so am interested to hear more clued peoples opinions on this

bellinisurge · 11/12/2018 19:09

WTO rules require you have control over your economic area. Doesn't have to be a hard border but there will inevitably be some infrastructure unless you are very careful. So both EU and UK need to prove they have proper control at their border. Even if it is a mutual agreement not to have a physical border. No solution is currently available that avoids infrastructure- even an ANPR camera is infrastructure. The "trusted trader" idea still requires infrastructure.

Yaralie · 11/12/2018 19:11

One key slogan of the leave campaign was "take back control of our borders".

Our only land border is on the island of Ireland where there are about 250 border crossings.

How can we "take back control of our borders" if we don't have a hard border complete with border posts, barbed wire, etc, which would be totally contravening the Good Friday Agreement?

Quite apart from smuggling goods, how could you possibly control the people crossing the border from the ROI into the UK? Any EU citizen could land in Dublin, casually cross into NI and therefore into UK.

The whole brexit agenda is a mass of contradictions.

GirlsBlouse17 · 11/12/2018 19:54

Fair points

GirlsBlouse17 · 11/12/2018 20:20

Most of what this DUP guy was saying sounded like sense at the time. However, he said nothing about what Bellinisurge has just said regarding there needing to be a border under WTO terms. No wonder wrong decisions are made because of not being given the full information or being given wrong information!

StealthPolarBear · 12/12/2018 08:10

We're going backwards.

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 12/12/2018 10:24

{However, he said nothing about what Bellinisurge has just said regarding there needing to be a border under WTO terms. }
That is the basic problem. It all looks good until you add the last couple of details at which point it all collapses and you go back to square 1.

GD12 · 12/12/2018 11:22

Just a point about WTO and a hard border. The WTO doesn't require there to be a hard border, they're not going to come out and enforce one but under MFN rules the UK would have to implement one. Its explained here

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/does-the-wto-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

bellinisurge · 12/12/2018 11:27

Already said that an actual hard border isn't needed but any kind of infrastructure supporting a smart border, say, still constitutes a physical risk as well as a contravention of GFA. That includes an ANPR camera, for example.

GD12 · 12/12/2018 11:29

As an aside. What two countries in the world with differing regulations don't have a hard border? It's pie in the sky.

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