Westminstenders: A vote too far?

[RedToothBrush]

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

The EU bends the rules the whole time. Neither Greece nor Italy would ever have joined the Euro if the rules had been applied.

The UK could change its whole immigration and benefit system (ID cards, residency etc) and then it wouldn't have the problems with FoM it has - or the EU could allow it to adopt a reasonable interpretation in line with its domestic environment (Immigration is not devolved to the EU, supposedly)

The impasse is a 2 way street. The Referendum would never even have been provoked if this were not the case.

The senate system doesn't work that well in the US and as population growth makes the individual states more unequal it is felt to be less and less truly representative. With countries as unequal as England/Scotland/Wales and NI I can't see it working at all for the same reason.

DG That's another change to be made when I rule Britain:
a written constitution !

Too easy currently for even a bossy democratically elected PM to avoid the few checks & balances.
If we ever got a genuinely fascist / communist ruler, even semi-fascist like Hungary, we would have few defences.

The UK is far too centralised
The executive - the PM - has far too much power.
The HoC has too little

We need to borrow some ideas from other democracies
and maybe a permanent Office of Special Counsel to investigate when politicians may have broken the law, or foreign interests may have had undue influence on the political process.

HowAbout Greece & Italy taught the EU many years ago the perils of bending the rules
The EU bent the rules as much as it could for the UK when it was a member - and many countries grumble at all the optouts

I don't expect it to bend rules for a non-member, or one in the Accession process, because it hasn't so far.

I have long thought that the UK needs ID cards, as we need ID for so many essential things
Also in this global world, we need them as one line of defence

That also has infuriated other EU countries for years, btw
the UK not having ID cards and not having a contribution-based system for benefits:
it makes the Uk a magnet, drawing migrants across Europe.

To control this whole issue, in or out or the EU, we need ID cards
Just not the complicated setup that Lanour proposed.

If we can't make a federal system work in the UK, then I expect we lose Scotland

@Bigchoc. thanks for the update. I get the bit about 2 senators per state. I think that is reasonable.

Where it runs into problems, for me, is if the executive is drawn from that body (like the PM and the HoC) if the executive is separate that problem doesn't arise, though other ones do.

Again, PR gives likely permanent coalition. You may or may not favour this, but I don't think its desirable personally.

On the war decision point, if we have unified armed services, but one partner can prevent a war being fought/joined. That raises an existential question about the country's ability to defend itself IMO. To say nothing of its "interests"

By way of an example, consider if the Argentines re-invaded the Falkland Islands and it was deemed necessary to act militarily to repel them or retake them if they were successful?

Would it be legitimate, in your view, for one part of our federal structure to vote against military action to re-take them (say the Welsh Assembly voted NO) and thereby prevent it happening?

These are good representations of how the E27- certainly the germany - is looking on with bewilderment at the mess the govt has made

'Chaos is complete': what the European papers say about Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/11/chaos-is-complete-what-the-european-papers-say-about-brexit

What's happened to you?': EU27 diplomats watch UK tie itself in Brexit knots

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/11/whats-happened-to-you-eu27-diplomats-watch-uk-tie-itself-in-brexit-knots

"I do not know what has happened to you. Britain was supposed to be the level-headed one, but this is crazy and out of control"

DG That's another change to be made when I rule Britain: a written constitution !

The problem is, the morons that voted Leave wouldn't let you. It's uniquely "British" you see, and so perfect in every way.

Written constitutions ... well foreigners obviously need rules to live by.

I think we do bigchoc. I can't see England tolerating a senate system and even the most moderate Scots will get bored of being ignored eventually, particulary if unstable decisions are being made without their consent.

To control this whole issue, in or out or the EU, we need ID cards Just not the complicated setup that Labour proposed.

I agree now. Things have moved on considerably since we had the war time ones. Something the size of a credit card with name, address, DOB, photo and signature, issued by the Local Authority would serve well. As long as the Police weren't allowed to stop people for no reason to ask for your ID, which led to their being abolished in 1952.

Theresa May Told Top EU Officials She Intended To Pull The Brexit Vote 24 Hours Before She Told Senior Cabinet Ministers

The prime minister spoke to EU officials about her thinking on Sunday, a senior source told BuzzFeed News, but the cabinet was not told until 11:30am on Monday.

www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/theresa-may-told-eu-leaders-brexit-vote-pulled

Louise What national Parliaments could do veto is only the potentially dangerous infrastructure / development I mentioned, sited in their own country
e.g. fracking, nuclear power stations, nuclear missiles / carriers

The vetoing of war, new treaties etc is something I would give power to do only in the Senate,
not in the national Parliaments

Then, yes, unless a majority of senators from each country agree, we would not go to war,
whether it be a colonial hangover like the Falklands, or Wars for Oil as the US poodle.

War is too serious an undertaking unless all member countries agree

War brought us down - and the other major countries in Europe - from being superpowers to being piles of rubble, then medium-sized economies, while the US rose supreme

War has left us with the problem of millions of refugees, which may have caused Brexit and which may yet topple governments
It's bungling has also led to occasional terror atrocities on our streets
We are much less safe & secure

Some while back I asked about who the UK will be getting into bed with next as anyone can see it is never going to be a massive player again.
Is it sucking up to the USA, China or just be invaded by Russia?
Maybe with the 'racist' angle the UK tourist board could team up with N Korea in terms of desirability?

Does anyone else die inside a little whenever they hear a British vox pox? It's as though the interviewer is only allowed to question people who are willing to declare themselves thick/daft/grumpy/inarticulate/racist etc. If by any chance someone with more than one brain cell starts to speak they are pretty hastily interrupted.

Bigchoc again I think we are pretty close to agreement. I also favour sensible ID cards - would have prevented Windrush debacle for a start. What I don't understand is why the EU won't bend on interpretation of FoM if, as we both agree, the UK acting as a magnet damages them as well as us - almost everyone else has falling population projections?

This isn't even about the migrant crisis effect. (To my mind the one good thing DC was on regulated refugee migration rather than the free for all which others allowed and are now trying to unwind).

Theresa May Told Top EU Officials She Intended To Pull The Brexit Vote 24 Hours Before She Told Senior Cabinet Ministers

I'm actually heartened that she shows as much contempt for her own ministers (let alone party) as she does the Great British Public. I've just had a fuzzy rush (as DW sometimes says).

We really are all in it together ....

aha right thanks, I misunderstood a bit on the effective veto power being senate level, particularly over war.

FWIW I still don't like the idea that 12.5% +1 (so 13 people out of 100) of your Senators can prevent a country from acting in its own defence.

The other problem you "national assembly veto" would likely generate is that everyone could veto critical infrastructure being in their country and then we wouldn't be able to have it at all. It might be relatively easy for a campaign group to pressurise a national parliament into exercising such a veto. If all 4 nations vetoed nuclear power stations, where would we be then?

Where a party was elected on a ticket of vetoing, e.g. having a "nuclear weapons free Scotland" then you'd have a democratic mandate for the veto being used.

In the current situation, I have sympathy with the SNP position on this, though I am as strong an advocate for nuclear deterrence as you'll find anywhere.

if May is toppled and an ERM bod becomes PM, I can't find any means for the HoC to force them not to have the No Deal they want.
Grieve has also said that his machinations don't actually stop No Deal, just piles on political pressure.

It is dangerous to rely on a safeguard that doesn't appear to exist.

As I said I think the loonies think they want No Deal in theory, but in practice the chaos slash national emergency that would result would end the Tories as a party. They’re mad but I don’t think they’re that stupid. They care about power, they don’t want to lose it. They will threaten blue murder but they will capitulate.

I don’t think they will be able to replace PM without a GE. Labour are more likely to win that. But if it happened - most of the Tories don’t want no deal. They will be forced to bring down a PM who tries it, or the rest of Parliament will do it for them.

If a PM did go batshit and trigger no deal, the economy would implode within hours and I think we’d have a national government within a month.

There are no safeguards - it’s a question of standing firm and not falling for the bluster.

Theresa May Told Top EU Officials She Intended To Pull The Brexit Vote 24 Hours Before She Told Senior Cabinet Ministers

According to H of C this afternoon a proposed addendum to the WA was also drafted several days ago at the same time as all outward assertions were to the effect of no changes being possible.

They’re mad but I don’t think they’re that stupid.

Then you have much more faith in our elected representatives at the moment than I can muster. I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that many of them are in fact really quite incredibly stupid.

@lonelyplanetmum I'd be surprised if they weren't cooking up something just in case. That's only sensible. No she shouldn't have been signaling the possibility to the EU but , bloody hell, in the scheme of things, that's not the worst.

What I don't understand is why the EU won't bend on interpretation of FoM
Because the U.K. is a sovereign country and it’s up to the U.K. to sort out it’s own internal issues, not up to the EU to solve problems it creates for itself....
I mean that would the EU interfering in the way the U.K. is dealing with immigration isn’t it?

I’m with you there Bigly. There’s a part of me that wants to think that for all their talk in public, they won’t let no deal happen because it’s a stupid and hugely damaging outcome. But I don’t actually trust this lot not to either let it happen or do it deliberately.

What I don't understand is why the EU won't bend on interpretation of FoM

because it's existentially what makes the EU, the EU. It would be like asking the US to bend on their interpretation of the constitution, because some states don't like while other states don't like but they all want

It's axiomatic that any Leaver that doesn't get that, will never get that by now. Best to ignore them moving forwards. There's only so much carrying the other 50% can do.

Then you have much more faith in our elected representatives at the moment than I can muster. I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that many of them are in fact really quite incredibly stupid.

I don’t have any faith in any of our politicians. But if you listen to what’s coming out of Parliament - for most MPs the penny has dropped as to the consequences of no deal. That’s why there’s no plan for it. It’s not really an option.

That’s not to say it couldn’t happen, and I have never said that it wouldn’t, but I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome from Parliament.

We are in far more in danger of it from a PV. Because the Brexit population at large is ignorant of the consequences.