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Brexit

Westministenders: Plan B on the back of a Contempt Envelope

945 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/12/2018 21:35

You could say its been an eventful day in BrexitWorld!

  1. The Advocate General's opinion (non-binding) is that a50 CAN be revocated unilaterally provided its in good faith (not done merely to extend the a50 period and is a settled commitment to stay in the EU. This is NOT the ECJ verdict. This is still due. The ECJ does occasionally disagree with the Advocate General, but this is rare. This is important and will affect how MPs view how they will vote next week in the Withdrawal Agreement vote.

  2. IF the ECJ rule in this way it does not rule out the EU appealing the decision.

The logic of the AG argument largely centres on the point that if the UK is sovereign then it can unilaterally withdraw from international treaties so it must also be allowed to revoke that decision otherwise it's not sovereign. Its hard to see how the ECJ will be able to go against that opinion.

Politically that could make an appeal difficult for the EU. However there is also much to say the EU WILL appeal though, if only because of concerns about how the a50 process could be abused by other countries such as Poland or Hungary to effectively renegotiate their status in the block. This possibility should not be forgotten. The 'good faith' argument is a legal minefield given the UK's behaviour in the last two years, if someone did want to challenge an ECJ unilateral ruling.

  1. The government lost two votes regarding contempt of parliament and not releasing the full legal advice on Brexit.

The first vote was for a government amendment which they lost by 4 votes - which has been claimed is down to the DUP voting with Labour instead of the government. The result was 311 to 307 votes.

The second vote was for the actual contempt motion itself. Again the government lost. The result was 311 to 293 - or 18 votes. So some Tory MPs abstained on this vote.

This marks the point where the government is officially a minority government and May no longer has a majority.

  1. Dominic Grieve tabled a motion (hereby named Grieve III), which was essentially a re issuing of Grieve II - the motion that he had proposed previously, but had been talked out of my May, only for her to burn him shortly afterwards.

This motion was supported by the regular Remain Rebels as well a bunch of known (and not insignificant) May Loyalists.

The effect of the amendment is thought to create a situation where 'Accidental' No Deal is no longer a default position. Instead if no deal is reached, it throws power back to the HoC to advice the government what steps they should now take.

It does not rule out the possibility of No Deal. It is still possible. Its just a lot less likely to. Brexiteers are arguing that the vote is not legally binding (Technically its not and they are correct). This seems highly unlikely in practice (politically not an option - the vote is politically binding, if not legally) even if that is the case. See the referendum for legally v politicially binding and how that has worked out. But there is room for a mess here too.

There is certainly no majority for No Deal in the HoC.

Grieve III was won by 22 votes (321 to 299). Thus making this a SIGNIFICANT vote in more than one respect.

  1. Prior to the Grieve III vote, there were rumours that May was set to lose Tuesday's WA vote by up to as much as 400 votes.

There was a lot of talk that the government were prepared to lose the vote, with a view to representing the deal at a later stage. The vote next week was about minimising the size of the defeat.

However this relied on May being in full control of the options for Plan B. Grieve III limits this somewhat and puts power in the hands of parliament. (Parliament has taken back control you see).

It does not direct the government as such but it makes it much more likely that Plan B will have to be Nick Boles suggestion for Norway, rather than May's version of Plan B and a simple re-presentation of her deal.

Of course, this is over simplified as the EU and the EEA ALSO would have to go for the Nick Boles plan. The suggestion is that Norway WOULD agree to it, PROVIDED we were fully committed to it for the long term. But its not just down to Norway.

  1. All this might well focus minds ahead of next week's vote. There are now three forces at work a) Brexiteers fearing that the likelihood of remain or a soft brexit have gone up, thus potentially being more inclined to support May. (This doesn't appear to be happening) b) The overall chances of No Deal decreasing, thus soft leavers being happier to pursue the opportunity for a soft Brexit (Norway deal) rather than supporting May's deal - at least at this stage. c) The hope of remaining due to the AG verdict combined with Grieve III encouraging remainers to not back May's Deal as they no longer fear the possibility of Accidental No Deal.

It has been suggested that its possible that the government allowed themselves to be defeated on the contempt motion in order to woo the ERG. This seems a bit of a stretch, as May has repeatedly proved that she isn't this kind of genius and Cox would have to have agreed to be the sacrifical lamb for that.

  1. The contempt of parliament motion now passes to the Parliamentary Privilege Committee to decide what punishment will be levelled on the government and Cox in particular. It is worth noting that at present, there are 7 on the committee; 3 Cons, 3 Lab and 1 SNP. Which you would suspect does not bode well for government.

  2. There is STILL some arguement over which version of the legal advice the government will publish as a result of the contempt vote, and when it will publish it. In theory there could be another contempt vote if it fails to act in a way that the house is satisfied with.

  3. The government are pretty pissed off at the Humble Address motions, and are now seeking to find ways to limit them.

  4. There is some suggestion that something has happened that opens the door for the US to leave NATO. This would be hugely significant to Brexit. Keep your eyes on this.

  5. When Cox spoke in the commons earlier this week, he made the point that Brexit means we are bound by the GFA to remain in the ECHR. And the ECHR also binds us to the GFA. Again significant, when talking about wanting to force a situation where we have Accidental No Deal, given the strength of feeling about wanting to leave the ECHR. If the Accidental No Deal door is closed, then this might also change ERG opinions as their motivition to have a hard Brexit is also reduced.

And of course the backstop is, to all intents and purposes, the GFA. It will be interesting to see how the backstop is framed in the full legal advice.

  1. Going back to point 1, there are still obstacles to remaining. May and the Conservatives are HIGHLY unlikely to want to revoke because of the damage to the party.

There is some talk about who has the power to revoke; parliament or the PM. The overall problem is that the PM does not have the power to overturn Acts relating to Brexit which have been passed by the HoC, although the original a50 vote passed the power to enact a50 to the PM from the house - and presumably the reverse would also be true if the PM has the power of a50.

Thus to revoke - IF the ECJ say we can - it has to be passed by parliament. At this stage there is no parliamentary majority to remain. This, of course, could change. It depends on what the alternatives are - arguably the likilhood of remaining is perhaps higher if accidental brexit is possible and the only alternative. Otherwise a soft exit would seem more logical.

  1. Corbyn's speech in the commons in response to May's presenting the Withdrawal Agreement sounds remarkably like continuity remain, to an extent that he has not previously gone.

Conclusion:
Overall, Grieve III is massively positive, purely from the point of view of avoiding No Deal.

Next week STILL gives the opportunity for MORE amendments which could create enormous problems though. The potential to end up in a situation with amendments which are positions which are diametrically opposed to each other or to the EU or the legal situation are huge. This would mark something of a crisis in its own right.

Its difficult to see where May goes from here. Her ability to force her deal though, rested on the leverage of the fear of No Deal / being in complete control of what Plan B was. Grieve III kills a lot of that, and combined with the preliminary opinion on revocation. Her only alternative is to go for Norway - like a lot of her Cabinet have already pushed for, but this would be a massive u-turn for her. The Times were speculating this morning that she will walk next week. But we've been here so many times before.

I suspect other posters and commentators will read all this differently to me (will be interesting to see how others view it) but this is my best shot at trying to make some sense of it all. I think the biggest bone of contention will be the balance of probability of the options out there.

PS: DO NOT forget the EU's own self interest which is consistently forgotten in the UK coverage and debate of the subject.The EU have no obligation to do a Norway deal. Nor to extend a50 if they do not see it being in their own interests to do so.

I wouldn't get hopes up too much just yet, but today does feel like a potential turning point. We have to get through next week though. I don't rule out anything at this point. All options are still possible and I wouldn't like to put money on anything. But a soft brexit or remaining are more tangible than they were at 7am this morning imho.

Feel free to take this all apart with your own analysis!

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Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 07/12/2018 14:17

order-order.com/2018/12/07/newkip-mass-ukip-exodus-new-group-planned-monday-launch/
NewKip.

Where they have successfully passed the old party's debts to the mugs who took over the party leadership.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 07/12/2018 14:20

History has not been well taught in the UK.

Westministenders: Plan B on the back of a Contempt Envelope
OP posts:
prettybird · 07/12/2018 14:22

That was my thought when Farage, Nutall and the odious Coburn all resigned in quick succession: a new BrexIP Party about to be launched Hmm

I wonder what colour they will try to expropriate. Wink

BigChocFrenzy · 07/12/2018 14:25

I was reminded of 1968, which was a cusp year, but changes happened in the few years before and after.
Of course the reforming Home Sec Roy Jenkins played a great role in the UK

Most people who don't like those changes associate them with 1968 and that time period sortly bedore and after.
"When the rot set in" is a phrase I often heard.

It is a culture war, with the authoritarian members of the 60+ age group wanting to return to win back what they regard as territory lost during the Wilson & to some extent the Heath years, certainly as regards the EU.

For my NE family, there were bitter memories of losing every battle and having to suck it up for decades, which have lingered.

btw, Labour have been worried about their Brexit-voting heartlands and it has mostly been this which has lon held them back from coming out for Remain.

However, I wonder - in these Labour areas - if Brexit is in fact being led / pushed by frustrated Tories like my family, who were always an impotent minority, but suddenly have a cause where they can gain wider support.

At last, they are in the ascendency
At last, on the winning side
And it's all simplistic slogans - as Trump found so effective
Facts can't compete with slogans when deep emotions hold sway

RedToothBrush · 07/12/2018 14:29

twitter.com/rights_info/status/1071002688555532288

So about that 2nd Ref.

Here's something from Rights Info which perhaps should be used...

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 07/12/2018 14:30

Blimey, red Those charts are shocking

What has happened to the brains of young people in the UK ? 😳
Did schools stop teaching history ?
Despair at their prospects for housing, kids ?

It seems especially a UK problem, more so than even the US

GD12 · 07/12/2018 14:30

Here's the draft medicines regulation. What a position the UK has got itself in!

twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1070968498413813760?s=19

RedToothBrush · 07/12/2018 14:32

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12/07/week-in-review-all-may-s-faults-come-home-to-roost
Week in Review: All May's faults come home to roost
Ian Dunt

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 07/12/2018 14:38

Stanley Pignal @spignal
A new "unofficial" list of Gilet Jaunes demands here:
- cut taxes to 25% of GDP (so half current levels)
- better public services/massive hiring of civil servants
- Leave EU & NATO
- Default on public debt
- New constitution
- less immigration
- Scrap CFA Franc in W Africa (??)

I don't know how representative of GJ, but there seem to be some familiar unicorns flying around in some places.

Westministenders: Plan B on the back of a Contempt Envelope
OP posts:
DGRossetti · 07/12/2018 14:42

www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/12/03/italy-eu-and-fall-of-roman-empire.html

strategic-culture.org
Italy, the EU, and the Fall of the Roman Empire
10-12 minutes
Italy, the EU, and the Fall of the Roman Empire

The EU leadership is trying to contain a crisis that is emerging at increasing speed: this challenge comprises the rise of contumacious states (i.e. the UK, Poland, Hungary and Italy), or of defiant, historic ‘cultural blocs’ (i.e. Catalonia) – all of whom are explicitly disenchanted with the notion of some coerced convergence towards a uniform EU-administered ‘order’, with its austere monetary ‘disciplines’. They even dismiss the EU’s claim to be, somehow, a part of a greater civilizational order of moral values.

If, in the post-war era, the EU represented an attempt to escape the Anglo-American hegemony, these new defiant blocks of ‘cultural resurgence’ which seek to situate themselves as interdependent, sovereign ‘spaces’ are, in their turn, an attempt to escape another type of hegemony: that of an EU administrative ‘uniformity’.

To exit this particular European order (which it originally was hoped, would differ from the Anglo-Americanimperii), the EU nevertheless was forced to lean on the latter’s archetypal construct of ‘liberty’ as empire’s justification (now metamorphosed into the EU’s ‘four freedoms’) on which the EU strict ‘uniformities’ (the ‘level-playing-field’, regulation in all aspects of life, tax and economic harmonization) have been hung. The European ‘project’ has become seen, as it were, as something that hollows out distinct and ancient ‘ways-of-being’.

Indeed, the very fact of their being attempted, at different levels, and in distinct geographical cultural regions, these assays indicate that that EU hegemony has already weakened to the point that it may not be able fully to hinder the emergence of this new wave. What is at stake precisely for the EU, is whether it can succeed to slow down, and curb in every way, the emergence of this process of cultural re-sovereigntisation, which of course, threatens to fragment the EU’s vaunted ‘solidarity’, and to fragment its matrix of a perfectly regulated customs union and common trade area.

It was Carl Schmitt – the political philosopher – however, who warned strongly against the possibility of what he called a negative katechon accelerator. This would seem to apply – exactly – to the situation in which the EU presently finds itself. This was a notion, held by the ancients, that historical events often have a ‘backstage’ contrarian dimension – that is to say that some given ‘intent’ or action (by say, the EU), may end upaccelerating precisely those processes which it was meant to slow down or to halt. For Schmitt, this explained the paradox through which a ‘braking action’ (such as the one being undertaken by the EU) may actually reverse itself, in an unwanted acceleration of the very processes the EU intends to oppose. Schmitt called this an ‘involuntary’ effect, since it produced effects opposed to the original intent. For the ancients, it simply reminded them that we humans often are merely history’s objects, rather than its causal subjects.

It is possible that the ‘braking action’ imposed on Greece, on Britain, on Hungary – and now on Italy – may precisely slide towards Schmitt’s Katechon. Italy has lingered in economic limbo for decades: Its new government feels obliged to relieve, in some way, the accumulated economic stresses of past years, and to try to re-kindle growth. But the state has a high level of debt to GDP, and the EU insists that Italy must endure the consequences: it must obey ‘the rules’.

Professor Michael Hudson (in a new book) explains how the EU’s ‘braking action’ in respect to Italian debt, represents a certain European strand of psychic rigidity that totally ignores historical experience, and may precisely result in Katechon: the opposite of what is intended. Interviewed by John Siman, Hudson says:

“In ancient Mesopotamian societies, it was understood that freedom was preserved by protecting debtors. A corrective model actually existed and flourished in the economic functioning of Mesopotamian societies, during the third and second millennia B.C. It can be termed the Clean Slate amnesty … It consisted of the necessary and periodic erasure of the debts of small farmers — necessary because such farmers are, in any society in which interest on loans is calculated, inevitably subject to being impoverished, then stripped of their property. and finally reduced to servitude … by their creditors.

[And was necessary too, as a] constant dynamic of history has been the drive by financial elites to centralize control in their own hands and manage the economy in predatory, extractive ways. Their ostensible freedom [comes] at the expense of the governing authority, and the economy at large. As such, it [stands as] the opposite of liberty – as conceived in Sumerian time …

So it was inevitable [in later centuries], that in Greek and Roman history, increasing numbers of small farmers became irredeemably indebted, and lost their land. It likewise was inevitable that their creditors amassed huge land holdings and established themselves in parasitic oligarchies. This innate tendency to social polarization – arising from debt unforgiveness – is the original and incurable curse on our post-eighth-century-B.C. Western Civilization, the lurid birthmark that cannot be washed away, or excised.

Hudson argues that the long, decline and fall of Rome begins, not as Gibbon had it, with the death of Marcus Aurelius, but four centuries earlier, following Hannibal’s devastation of the Italian countryside during the Second Punic War (218-201 B.C.). After that war, the small farmers of Italy never recovered their land, which was systematically swallowed up by the prædia, the great oligarchic estates, as Pliny the Elder observed. [Of course, today it is small and medium sized Italian businesses that are being swallowed up by oligarchic, pan-European corporations.]

But among modern scholars, as Hudson points out, “Arnold Toynbee is almost alone in emphasizing the role of debt in concentrating Roman wealth and property ownership” (p. xviii) — and thus in explaining the decline of the Roman Empire …

“Mesopotamian societies were not interested in equality,” he told his interviewer, “but they were civilized. And they possessed the financial sophistication to understand that, since interest on loans increases exponentially, while economic growth at best follows an S-curve, this means that debtors will, if not protected by a central authority, end up becoming permanent bondservants to their creditors. So Mesopotamian kings regularly rescued debtors who were getting crushed by their debts. They knew that they needed to do this. Again and again, century after century, they proclaimed ‘Clean Slate’ Amnesties.”

The EU has punished Greece for its profligacy – and is set to punish Italy if it flaunts EU fiscal rules. The EU is attempting what Schmitt termed a ‘breaking action’, to maintain its hegemony.

This is however, truly a case of the EU seeing the ‘mote’ (speck) in Italy’s eye, whilst ignoring the ‘beam’ in its own eye. The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan writes:

“The combined debt of US, the Eurozone, Japan and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP, over the past year. It’s remarkable that the global economy – slowing in sync, despite soaring debt – finds itself in a situation reminiscent of the Red Queen Effect. As the Red Queen says to Alice in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass, “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”.

But that – running faster, taking on more debt – can only, in the end, be resolved with a major default (or through inflating the debt away). Look at the US: its GDP is growing at 2.5%; the US Federal debt is at 105% of GDP; the US Treasury is spending $1.5 billion on interest per day, and debt is growing at 5-6% of GDP. It is not sustainable.

Demands by Greece and Italy for debt relief may be regarded by some as special pleading, in the wake of past economic mismanagement; but Sumerian and Babylonian demands were based not on such – but rather, on a conservative tradition grounded in rituals of renewing the calendrical cosmos and its periodicities, Hudson tells us. The Mesopotamian idea of reform had ‘no notion’ of what we would call ‘social progress’. Instead, the measures the king instituted under his debt ‘jubilees’ were measures intended to restore a ‘backstage’, underlying order in society, or maat. “The rules of the game had not been changed, but everyone had been dealt a new hand of cards”.

Hudson notes, “the Greeks and the Romans replaced the cyclical idea of time and societal renewal, with that of linear time” [with convergence toward an ‘End Time’]: “Economic polarization became irreversible, not merely temporary” – as the idea of renewal became lost. Hudson might have added that linear time, and the loss of the imperative of dismemberment and renewal, has played a major role in underpinning all of Europe’s universalist projects of a linear itinerary towards human transformation (or, Utopianism).

This is the essential contradiction: that ineluctable economic divarication and polarization is transforming Europe into a continent torn by unresolved internal contradiction. On the one hand it castigates Italy for its debts, and on the other, it has been the ECB which has pursued interest rate ‘repression’ into negative territory, and has monetized debt to the equivalence of one-third of Europe’s global output. How can the EU not have expected banks and businesses not to have loaded up on ‘positive-carry’ debt? How can they have expected Banks not to have inflated their balance sheets with ‘free debt’ to the point of becoming ‘too big to fail’?

The global explosion of debt is a macro problem that vastly transcends the microcosm of Italy. Like the ancient Roman Empire, the EU has atrophied in its ‘order’ to become an obstacle to change, and, with no alternative, but to hold tight to a ‘braking action’ that will ultimately produce effects, completely at odds to the original intent (i.e. involuntary, negative Katechon).

BigChocFrenzy · 07/12/2018 14:43

_ In what could be the final days of May's premiership, Operation Stop Boris is already in full swing_

< in case you thought he'd been buried with a stake through his heart >

Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry, Heidi Allan and Sarah Wollaston are all prepared to say they'll resign the Tory whip if Boris becomes leader
and they claim about 20 Tory MPs will do so in toto.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/06/could-final-days-mays-premiership-operation-stop-boris-already/

The Prime Minister is expected to suffer the largest defeat in political history.

“Ideally, we lose this by a safe margin, between 40 and 200 votes,” one Cabinet member tells me.

If it’s less than 40, his logic runs, Brussels would expect her to call the vote again.

If she loses by 200 votes, the party itself might be ruined.

But if it’s 100 votes, even the Maybot could not pretend (as she likes to say) that “nothing has changed”.
She would resign, or be prevailed upon to do so.

Her party would then have a very short period of time to decide what happens next.

DGRossetti · 07/12/2018 14:44

If she loses by 200 votes, the party itself might be ruined.

Probably the only outcome I would swap with Remain.

icannotremember · 07/12/2018 14:48

She won't lose by that much. TBH I won't be surprised if she doesn't lose at all. The Tory 'rebels' have shown themselves to be all mouth and no trousers time and time again, and there are a fair few on the Labour benches who could easily be persuaded to back the deal.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/12/2018 14:48

After what they have put the country through, for entirely party political reasons, the Tories deserve to be binned permanently.

Maybe we can then have a European type Christian Democrat party (but not called that) of the centre-right - no longer right / hard right - with a social conscience.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/12/2018 14:53

Theresa May could still get her Brexit deal through Parliament. Here's how it could happen

cannot The Torygraph also thinks it (faintly) possible - if May survives - but only on the 2nd or 3rd attempt:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/06/theresa-may-could-still-get-brexit-deal-could-happen/

The Prime Minister has a lot of persuading to do.
Just days before the crucial Brexit vote, our detailed analysis of the parliamentary numbers shows Mrs May needs over 100 MPs to switch to supporting her deal.

Clawing these numbers back by 11 December looks near impossible.

If May suffers a defeat the first time around - and survives a possible attempt to topple her -

she could squeak her deal through on a second (or perhaps even third) attempt.

A remarkable number of moving parts would have to align

DGRossetti · 07/12/2018 14:53

Of course there's every chance if she does pull of this vote that she'll then do a Cameron, and let someone else clean up the mess, which might affect some thinking.

We're back to the fact that truly dreadful as she is, I really can't see anyone wanting to follow her. Especially if the WA passes.

So anyone with leadership ambitions - or their lickspittles - has a very good incentive to tank the deal.

Peregrina · 07/12/2018 14:59

Hesta54 - do you have travel and household insurance, and buildings insurance? Or do you just trust to 'finding your way through problems'?

Peregrina · 07/12/2018 15:05

If she loses by 200 votes, the party itself might be ruined.

Please let this happen.

DGRossetti · 07/12/2018 15:15

Anyone else slightly puzzled by the non-appearance of a "Downfall" or two about this ? Or have we simply moved beyond parody ?

BigChocFrenzy · 07/12/2018 15:23

Well, DG

Peston@itvpeston

"Satire can't compete" with the Brexit process according to @PrivateEyeNews^ editor Ian Hislop #Peston^

Hesta54 · 07/12/2018 15:28

Peregrina Yes I do, but like a lot of things in life you only find out the truth when you actually try using or implement it or experience it, there is to much untruths, exaggerating and agendas to ever know the truth, the internet has not helped, it might help if people in position of power were held accountable for lying or willing deceiving the public, get a bit of truth and accountability back in public office

Hesta54 · 07/12/2018 15:30

Peregrina And what party should take over from them? We could all do with a couple of new parties, with new ideas

plaidlife · 07/12/2018 15:38

So her Brexit supporting aides are going to resign according to the Guardian unless she changes backstop.
I don't really understand why Brexiteers cannot appreciate why the Backstop exists.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/12/2018 15:39

All May's faults come home to roost

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12/07/week-in-review-all-may-s-faults-come-home-to-roost

During the negotiations she would say one thing to Brussels and then return to the Commons and speak the most god-awful pound-shop-Boudica drivel about how weak and petrified the Europeans were.

She either had not realised that TV had been invented or did not think the Europeans were smart enough to take an interest in what she was saying back home.
...
It was this unreliability on the British side which first led to the backstop - the great humiliation which Brexiters now spend all their time complaining about.

Ministers showed no consistency, no basic principles, no depth to which they would not plunge to satisfy their ideological hysteria - so an insurance policy was needed.

We don't know the damage their dismissive attitude towards the EU cost us.
Each time Liam Fox or David Davis said something belittling about our negotiating partners, the view of us across the Channel hardened.

Part of the reason May has so little to offer with her deal is that she alienated the people who were in a position to help her.

Peregrina · 07/12/2018 15:40

Why don't you just trust to luck Hesta54? That's what you appear to want to do with Brexit.

You have talked about the Millenium bug. I suspect that you didn't work on it. I did. Besides making sure our systems worked it we took the welcome opportunity to modernise our systems which helped us remain efficient and competitive - something which British Industry is notoriously bad at doing. This doesn't fit the Leaver narrative that it was all scaremongering. Did you hear about yesterday's O2 outage? Or how about the disaster the Spanish bank had disentangling TSB's systems. These things happen with poor preparation and la la la, it will be alright, it's not happened isn't going to solve anything.

You then made some rather silly remarks about AIDS and CJV. No, they didn't cause the devastation the 1918 Spanish flu did, but it's a very good job that we did take action about these. They could almost certainly have been dealt with earlier without the hysteria there was, but typically short termism rules in the UK and we would not have known then that a crisis had been averted.

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