Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

I deal with Local Government politicians day in day out.
They theoretically know how government works
Many of them are Tory party members
Just get Brexit over and done with is their mantra.
To them its like a haircut, nothing real.

.

www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2018/12/01/kals-cartoon

I've been surprised by some of the people who I know who support gilet jaune - people who I thought were environmentally aware. It seems to be a general anti establishment thing?

Any signs of it causing issues in the north coastal regions?

What I’d like is for the referndum to be recognised as illegal and scrapped, A50 revoked and we stay in the EU to work with them for a Europe that benefits us all.

I'd like Article 50 to be revoked too, and would very much prefer to stay in the EU. But I think that it won't happen, particularly in the short term via a People's Vote.

It would look like a colossal betrayal of the 2016 referendum result, and I firmly believe it would be counterproductive.

Far better in my view for May's WA to pass. Not only does this avoid a No Deal, it probably scuppers the Hard Brexit fans (because I think it would feel like we had left the EU, so what's there to moan about?).

It also gives time for a rebranded pro Remain campaign to filter out with a message of seeking the 'best of both' from the eventual deal.

Essentially we have to accept that Remain has not won enough hearts and minds yet, and I think it's a mistake to underplay the symbolic significance of Leaving. The beauty of the WA is that it can be spun as achieving Brexit while actually leaving an option for moving closer to the EU in the longer term.

And yes, it's a bit rubbish that we have to think in terms of spin, which I loathe as much as any right thinking person. However I believe that the genie is out of the bottle as far as the issue of influencing public perception is concerned, and it's more important to get the right result for the country than to handwring about how it shouldn't have to be like this.

From BBC

If MPs don't back Theresa May's Brexit deal there could be another EU referendum, Michael Gove has said.
The leading cabinet Brexiteer said Mrs May's deal was not perfect - but if MPs did not vote it through on 11 December there was a risk of "no Brexit at all".
He told the BBC's Andrew Marr show there may now be a Commons majority for another referendum.
Labour has said it will attempt to topple Mrs May and force a general election if MPs reject Mrs May's deal.
If that fails, they will then seek support in the Commons for another referendum

Do you think the following might happen and how
likely do you think it is to happen (it would be my preferred outcome for getting out of this mess):

Vote on 11/12 fails
TM loses confidence of HoC
A50 extension granted
General Election is called
Labour campaigns to call off Brexit if elected. No second referendum - just a manifesto promise
Labour win

Is that completely fantasy?
Would it divide the country even further?

But Corbyn wants hard Brexit
who knows what he'd do if he actually got into Number 10

But if he changed his mind because the majority of his party want to call off Brexit then he'd have a chance to win the election IMO. And it'd be catching two birds with one stone - call off Brexit and get Tories out.

He does not change his mind.
His fan base love him because he sticks to his values through thick and thin.
He might get elected and then go ahead with his own vision of Brexit and a socialist economy.
The non existent way he has opposed the Government is because he is not a quick thinking strategist. He is a rebellious back bencher blinking in the spotlight.

I don't want a GE, unless Labour promise BEFORE the GE is called that they will Remain

That's because I'm not sure Corbyn is electable and also I don't trust him in the slightest
He could switch to a PV and then advocate Leave, which would then probably win again.
Remember, as soon as the 2016 ref result was announced, he demanded that A50 be invoked immediately.

I would prefer the HoC to vote down the WA once, then decide on Remain - if sufficient MPs agree -
and if not, then Norway++.

If they vote down the WA, there may be sufficient business flight & markets panic, to also panic the public and hence the MPs, into accepting this.

However, if the political cowardice & opportunism and hence the HoC logjam remains, so that none of the options - Remain / Norway++ / May's WA - can pass the HoC,
then I expect the HoC would vote for a PV to pass the buck onto the electorate.

Since the default if they take no action is No Deal, the HoC would at least want to cover their rears by making the electorate vote for whatever happens next.
Of course, a 50.05% majority for the winners would leave the country bitterly divided, but the HoC would likely refuse to accept No Deal from a v narrow majority and choose the other option.

btw, I think the HoC can, if absolutely necessary, vote to pass May's WA at the 2nd or 3rd attempt, whether as a result of a PV, or off their own bat, because a looming No Deal disaster has to be avoided if at all possible and the HoC can break its own conventions in extremis.

I don't know if this is wishful thinking on my part, but I think some people in the Commons are trying to prevent no deal being an option. Hilary Benn maybe? Please correct me on this- I know some on this thread are much better informed than me.

For what it's worth, I don't think Corbyn is electable. I also blame his inaction for the fact we are in this mess to begin with.

I don't want a GE, unless Labour promise BEFORE the GE is called that they will Remain

As if. GE - Corbyn + McDonnell will campaign for Leave, but their MPs, their members and even Momentum in the majority support Remain. Only 10 Labour MPs voted Leave, and two of those, Kate Hoey and Frank Field, lost a no confidence vote. Field is currently independent.

So there will be a mother of all battles within the party.

I think we have a better chance of Remaining ultimately with Labour than Tories and at least Corbyn supports the CU.

I still wouldn’t vote for them.

Corbyn did actually campaign for Remain, even if ineffectually (though didn’t party members vote Remain?). Pre Referendum he was considered a busted flush, a has-been with no chance of ever getting into power. It was only after May’s disastrous election he gained credibility.
I think that he and others in Labour have been gaming Brexit to their own ends - in Labour’s case, with a view to gaining power and carrying out wholesale renationalisations. However the Labour conference showed that the party as a whole would prefer to Remain - it was there that the idea of a PV began to gain widespread traction.
However, I would find it hard to vote Labour, even if they committed to the softest of soft Brexits. But I would find it hard to vote for anyone (even the LDs, of which I was a member for many years) ATM. So for me, I’d prefer May’s deal (with its potential for evolution) over a GE, and if not that, a PE over a GE.

Not a PE! A PV!

I don't know if this is wishful thinking on my part, but I think some people in the Commons are trying to prevent no deal being an option. Hilary Benn maybe? Please correct me on this- I know some on this thread are much better informed than me.

That’s right. Benn’s proposed amendment is aimed to ensure no deal cannot be approved by Parliament. It’s got the backing of LibDems and SNP.

If May’s WA is voted down, the government has 3 weeks to decide what to do. They could just put it before the house repeatedly. But if no deal is proposed - as things stand that would be hard to overturn because the existing legislation only requires parliament to consider the government’s decision.

This would make it easier to vote against the WA without risking Parliament choosing no deal.

No deal could still be voted for in a PV though. By people who have had 2.5 years to google ‘consquences of no deal’ and haven’t bothered.

And that’s all a separate issue to what happens if we run out of time and no deal looms because we’ve failed to agree one.

For what it's worth, I don't think Corbyn is electable. I also blame his inaction for the fact we are in this mess to begin with

Corbyn has no power or influence to change May's beliefs eg Labour have opposed UC root and branch, it has made zero difference to the overall policy, it was her own back benchers that have made her make a few minor changes.

The reason we are in this mess (aside from Cameron) is because May doesn't understand the EU, has no Parliamentary majority (both her own fault) and leads a very divided party.

Sorry lazysummer that’s not very clear. I’m currently multitasking.

Essentially - this proposed amendment is intended to stop Parliament being able to actively vote for no deal. Which is not the same thing as simply failing to agree a deal within the timespan. That is still a possibility, as is the the possibility of a PV voting for no deal.

Thank you- you were clear about the no deal scenario.
I also fear a PV voting for no deal, although a PV also seems to be the only way out. I don't think a general election would achieve anything, as I think Labour's claims that they would negotiate a better deal are delusional.

lazysummer Labour would negotiate a different deal, as they do not have such a divided party to appease, nor do they have all Mays red lines.
If you start off ruling out 75% of what is on offer, then of course you end up with a dogs dinner.

but of course Labours deal could be equally shite!

Labour's claims that they would negotiate a better deal are delusional
I agree but if they were to offer to withdraw A50 they wouldn't need to negotiate a deal. They could make withdrawing A50 the centre of their campaign in the event of a GE. Then they would probably get votes from voters of other parties for whom calling this thing off is of paramount importance even if they don't like Corbyn

Labour could easily win on a Remain vote. A recent YouGov poll found 90% of 1000 Labour Party members would vote to stay in in a referendum. There is growing pressure from Momentum to turn against Brexit. Not to mention 1000s of floating disaffected Tory Remainers.

But Corbyn is nothing if not stubborn.

Hilary Benn and Keir Starmer are leading the Labour party back to reality
against the express wishes of Corbyn and McDonnell
good for them
there is a chance that they will be able to tap into the self protection instincts of enough MPs to stop a hard Brexit and get a decent compromise with the EU

If only the Labour Party was led either by Hilary Benn or Keir Starmer