Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

I just listened to Tony Connelly's Brexit Republic podcast and he was pointing out that apart from the fact that Norway has to respect FOM, the EEA group are actually moving closer towards closer integration with the EU and may not be too keen on a bolshy new partner like the UK joining for a short period and trying to go the other way. Plus, while Brexiteers think they might be able to pull a Lichtenstein (where they put a stop on FOM after 2004), this is not likely to work for the UK.

I guess, as usual, no-one in Westminister thinks of the perspective of the other countries and just assumes everyone will fall in line with their plan? If May is not willing to move on FOM, I don't see how the UK can expect anything other that what's on the table in the WA.

Mrsr8

I usually find people very supportive during supermarket collections, but there are always a few unaccountably angry idiots around.

I posted a few weeks ago that I'd asked our foodbank manager if she (or indeed the Trussell Trust) had given any thought to the potential effects of Brexit for both our foodbank and foodbanks in general.

She's now heard from the area manager, saying that their "policy team are on top of it", whatever that means, but they can't give any definite advice because they don't yet know the intricacies of the deal (although I would at least have thought the main sledgehammer issues were already apparent).

She added this link from the Rowntree Foundation: www.jrf.org.uk/report/how-could-brexit-affect-poverty-uk

which is just a general review of how Brexit could affect poverty levels.

I was more hoping for a bit of practical advice about how to cope with declining donations and the physical security of our warehouse if national food supplies falter or food prices rise dramatically, but the policy team obviously hasn't got on top of such minutiae yet.

Bit disappointing, particularly as our figures for the past year show a 27% increase in emergency meals issued. Maybe we'll hear more in, say, March next year.

Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson
It’s hyperbole to talk about the Brexit vote being the biggest ever constitutional crisis, says James Forsyth. The crises of the 17th century were far worse

Oh that's OK. We don't need to cut off the Queen's head.

(Give Brexit a chance. The potential for this to materialise as a possibility isn't that far off).

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
EXCLUSIVE: Police forces get more frontline funding as ministers provisionally agree to let councils raise £2/month for police (currently £1/month). Understand it will raise an est £450m extra. And about £170m extra coming for general police funding - on @skynews in 2 mins

Watch this creep up with new charges everywhere

The poor stay poor and the rich get police.

Are y'all listening to the Now Show

MrsR8 That's dreadful
What gets into such people ? 😳

I have followed these threads since the original vote. Can I start by saying thank you for your resilience, knowledge and good sense. It has kept me sane, while most other people just don't seem to care. I do think it gives us a false sense of perspective; the assumption is (as before the vote) that people think as we do.
I have supported a People's Vote, as the only possible way out of the mess we are in. I firmly believe that people were lied to. It is no coincidence that the areas highlighted in the recent UN poverty report are also the strongest leave areas. I have campaigned for a People's Vote as the only feasible way forward. I am also heartened by the fact that this has united all of the parties.
However, now that this seems to be a possibility, I am worried that, should it happen, the vote would be divided between leave with no deal, leave with the current deal or remain. This was suggested earlier in a debate with Justine Greening.
Also, it appears from the emotion of the other threads, and question Time last night, that leavers and retainers have become even more entrenched in their views than before.
My two fears are: parliament WILL vote for this deal despite the fact that nobody wants it as the alternative of no deal is too dreadful to risk OR it will go to a People's Vote and no deal will win because of a divided vote between the other two options.
I can't see a positive outcome whatever the scenario.

Remainers not Retainers!

UsuallyDormant "Norway for Now" was an outrageously cheeky idea from the arrogant Nick Boles MP (Tory) and was soon ruled out by their PM

However, Norway++ is longterm and up to now, Norway and the EFTA countries were positive about the UK joining them,
because of the extra clout they'd have negotiating with the EU and with non-EU countries

Of course, EFTA - and possibly even the EU - may have become so exasperated and insulted with UK behaviour, that they may not really want the UK any more.

lazysummer In the new Delta poll I posted upthread, a straight Remain vs No Deal vote looks dangerous.
Remain has lost ground since their last poll

Remain: 48% (-2)

Leave without deal: 52% (+2)

+/- with regular Leave/Remain question, end of October 2018

TiP I totally agree
At least for the "Left Behind" Leavers & Trumpers, who voted in anger & desperation, we need to improve their lives & prospects

Telling them they voted for the wrong option so we'll ignore their vote and / or saying that they are stupid is a totally inadequate and very dangerous response,
unless we can offer them something that will actually improve their lives

Thank you.

Leave without deal: 52% (+2)

Oh my god. 52% who can't have ever bothered to set aside half an hour to do some independent googling.

If there are any lurking no dealers ( including any MPs) just spend 30 minutes googling what having no trading agreement with our largest trading partner means (and the 100 piggy back agreements it gives us with other countries).

HoC Brexit RoadMap

Commons Library@commonslibrary

#Brexit: the final countdown?
Our latest Insight sets out what we expect to happen in the lead-up to the "meaningful vote”.
And we explain what to look out for once @HouseofCommons has taken its decision on 11 December

From the Delta Poll

Both May's WA and No Deal beat Remain
but the WA beats No Deal

I’d rather think that the increase in tax for the Police is because they know they will need more police forces to keep some resemblance of calm.

lazysummer I agree with you.
A PV is dangerous. We need to remember the polls before the referendum and remember how they all were putting Remain as a clear winner. until the election came. The same could happen this time in either way.
TM WA is the one no one wants but at least it give the uk 2 more years to sort out some issues and the chance to negotiate a ‘better’ deal. And it has some sides tomit that both sides actually wants (still in some ways aligned with the EU but with no FOM)
It might actually be the best for the U.K. atm because a no deal will be catastrophic for the country and will anger 50% of the population.
Remaining in the EU will anger the other half of the population and will put the U.K. in a very difficult place politically.

Policy ideas to prevent a populist surge

• abolish "help to buy" immediately
• cancel all future council home sales
• abolish CFC group taxation and disclosure rules
• force all UK linked tax havens to have public company registers
• force all LLP partners to have UK NI numbers
• abolish non dom status
• increase council tax bands to "Z"
• allow councils to spend capital receipts / reserves on new affordable rent homes
• allow compulsory purchase by councils of all homes empty for 5 years ; at the value on last resident left
• quadruple the budget for the NMW team at HMRC

have I missed any important ones?

Would Corbyn sign up for that ?

TiP Outlaw ZHC clauses that require workers to remain available at all hours
Time required to be on call should be paid at NMW
and total hours worked plus hours on call to be within the daily & weekly legal limits for regular employees

We need more workers rights

Bigchoc
You are SO Eu

interestingly the NMW / standby rules are going through the EU at the moment ....
Brexit will make them worse

THe UK opted out of the "working time directive" so forced its workers to be available more than 48 hours
Brexit will make it wose

BCF - what is the % of Don't knows in the Delta poll? the latest YouGov poll puts remain at 46, leave 40, DN's at 14%

And the far larger Survation Ch4 poll had a huge margin to remain.

jasjas
Polls in advance have turned out to be polished turds

IMHO (and several years of touring the country and asking through work)
NOBODY has changed their vote
Brexiters have died
Remainers have hit 18
so by January the result would change

On the Delta Poll graphic that BCF posted above it looks as though Remain beat May’s deal 56:44. If that is correct then it seems quite contradictory:
Remain > May’s deal
May’s deal > No deal
No deal > Remain