Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

"Blind Brexit" has always been the favoured option of one Michael Gove, I believe.

I took part in the PV March but have always maintained that I wasn’t sure it was a good idea - like many others there on that day I wanted to show support for remaining.

Me too. I am worried about a PV as so many people don't understand the real consequences of no-deal Brexit. Also, I am worried about the strength of nationalistic feeling in some quarters, especially when I read threads like today's UKIP/Tommy Robinson one and am depressed to find that there are more than just the handful of meat-headed middle-aged white men that turn out for Tommy Robinson rallies that actually think he and his ideas are a good thing.

I can increasingly see Tony Blair's logic in having a no-deal Brexit, quickly realising how completely catastrophic it is and rejoining the EU as soon as possible, bit I think this strategy is 1) too risky and 2) would have too many devastating consequences for people who don't deserve them.

The UK is gradually getting towards paying the bill in the restaurant and starting to wish it hadn't kicked the doorman in the nuts on the way in.
Mark Carney was saying the other day that for a 'no deal' Brexit, the UK might have to go cap in hand to either the USA or the EU to prop up the UK economy. Not quite taking back control as I would normally expect.

I took part in the PV march also - and think like others that I am not sure. I took part mainly to tell May that the 48% haven't gone away and I am not getting behind a stupid Brexit, just because she says so. I make no apology for still being Remain, if Farage and Redwood can spend 40 odd years agitating for the change they want, then I can spend the rest of my life agitating too. (I don't expect to be alive in 40 years time.)

Tatiana I feel the desire for PV is naive

It is also just a continuation of the demand for a 2nd vote, which started right after the referendum, before we knew about CA and dirty money.

We can't rerun votes just because we don't like the results,
not unless there actually has been a large change in public opinion

That's not democracy, especially those trying to exclude No Deal from the referendum options - which would be election-fixing

So what can we do?

If campaigning for a PV is not sensible, what is? I want to do something - or is there nothing we can do now? Just wait it out & see what we end up with

Comments from a friend: “I saw [our MP] speak this morning at [our town]'s Federation of Small Business meeting.
Only a little on brxit. In his opinion we'd have been better off remaining. No benefit to [our town] or surrounding economy by leaving. Could be damaging to manufacturing/engineering in the area. He is supporting TM's deal as he sees it as damage limitation/making the best of a bad situation.

I could see him supporting a people's vote if parliament reject the deal. He made it fairly clear that he is still a remainer at heart.”

And thanks for the thread Red

Write to your MP and tell them to do all they personally can to avoid No Deal. At this point, I don't give a shiny shit about which party they are from.
A coalition of common sense is needed in the Commons.
And if they can avoid No Deal being an option in any People's Vote so much the better. Because some idiots are just stupid enough to vote for No Deal.

Campaigning for a PV is useful, as pp said, because it keeps showing Remain feeling.

What is really necessary is to change opinion, so imo:

Engage in rl with Leavers - not telling them they are stupid / racist / ... - but telling them of the benefits of the EU
ffs, if we can't convince people of the benefits, then it is pointless Remaining and the EU would be better off without us

Don't let incorrect statements of fact go by, but make your replies respectful to the other person(s)

Be active online în extolling the benefits of the EU and explaining the consequences of Leaving

Be realistic - Osbourne & co did great damage by claiming immediate damage which did not materialise, because Carney and others were able to take steps to minimise the damage

Bellini That is a big problem with a PV: so long as it remains by far the most popular leave option

• because it is "simple, a clean break" - then that PV will never be regraded as legitimate^

Putting what is regarded as BRINo vs Remain would be a farce of a PV

If you really want Tommy Robinson to get more votes than Farage ever did, that's the way to go,
to make people feel they are not being allowed the genuine choice they want - and they would be right about a vote fix

This is why I am active in the PV campaign - it is engaging people. At the street stalls we encourage and enable people to write to their MP, in my opinion these people would otherwise be considered to be supporting the PM. The stalls stimulate debate and make people stop & think. I believe they’re extremely valuable. The PV campaign gives us a brand and a louder voice.

I don’t want a PV to be necessary - but I feel the movement is the best way to demonstrate the opposition to Brexit in an organised and coordinated way.

(My MP knows my views - I write to him frequently!)

The PV has a great problem anyway with legitimacy, because it is organised and supported by the same people who wanted a 2nd ref as soon as the result of the 1st ref was known.
They just didn't like the result and wanted to make the plebs vote again.

That loses it a lot of credibility

PV would be in a far stronger position if voting again was a totally new idea, to help break a logjam

Sorry - cross posted

Thanks BCF and Bellini

I’m not in favour of a PV although I understand the arguments for one.

The lesson of this referendum is to follow Germany and to have fewer (but for changes to state territory or the constitution in their case), rather than more.

Brexit lies and propaganda are still extant and will impact the outcome, whatever the question. The desire for one is borne of political desperation rather than because it’s a good idea of itself.

The issues of the type of question and the options to give voters within the question is where it really runs aground.

We can't rerun votes just because we don't like the results,

I don't agree - we can void an election and order a fresh one if irregularities are found.

The PV vote campaign is useful though as it’s a means of expressing opposition to the current government and the current deal.

The German constitution forbids referenda, because of how Hitler used them to come to power.

They are a tool for unscrupulous demagogues to promises all things to all people, which are impossible to fulfill,
then blame the Establishment for not delivering the impossible.

We have the big problem that few Leavers accept they were conned;

they think all those "wonderful" things - boosting the NHS, no more immigrants, more jobs, more housing, less crime ... -
are being betrayed by Remainers in the civil service & govt, especially May

What really scares me:

I have seen Kippers online campaigning already for a referendum on deporting all Muslims, including 2nd & 3rd generation

That arrogant fool Cameron has let the genie out of the bottle and we may never be able to put it back

Thinking about the PV and whether it's democratic or not, I cannot recall any protests in favour of a vote to leave the EU. I can remember the fuel protests, or earlier Poll Tax protests. But somehow for Leavers this vote was different.

I know we can’t really know what the outcome of brexit will be. I would just like some simple honesty. Bullet point gains and losses. Surely someone can do that.

Exactly. Referendums are an easily manipulable mob vote, used by despots to give the veneer of democratic choice. Any popular vote now will not be based on a clean slate, or understanding better the issues, but on the propaganda of the last.

peregrina Voiding an election due to illegal campaigning is another matter,
although in practice it is very difficult even to overturn a result in one constituency if an MP breaks the rules

We would need to prove criminal breaches, not just civil ones - Leavers are claiming those are just admin / technical breaches.

We don't have time for the police to investigate and the CPS to bring charges - if there is enough evidence - and then a trial.
That's probably another 2 years away.

It could have been much easier to preempt criminal trials, if many Remainers hadn't been campaigning all along for a 2nd ref because they didn't like the results.
That's poisoned the well of public discourse

Leavers hate Cadwalladr and her investigations, because they regard it as just another Remainer tactic
I fear that even criminal convictions - if they ever happen - won't change minds

Robinson's convictions for fraud have not put off his supporters, including on MN

It's grim, but in a culture war - happening in most of the West - feelz trump facts

So really May ought to have the guts to say that it can't be done without wrecking the country, so leaving the EU is off - at least for now. Then challenge the right wing to put up or shut up, ditto with Corbyn - tell him to invoke whatever the process is which would need to call a GE, and then he needs to win.

Just reading news headlines about the various attacks every day in the UK is putting me off wanting to return (I didn't anyway but work takes me on occasions). The protests in France are worrying, now on the seventh day. They were originally over the price of diesel (which is expensive now) and a further rise planned for January.
With teargas and watercannon being used in Paris for what was a relatively simple protest, although the aims are now wider it should be concerning to the UK as almost any form of Brexit will sow the seeds for this sort of unrest.

General and Local Govt elections can be voided, and it's not always difficult - there was one local election recently where just this happened because one of the candidates hadn't been eligible to stand. I imagine the returning officer got his or her knuckles rapped for not following the correct procedure. The difference is though, that Local and GE's have been running for years and years and now the rules are well laid down, although I believe there may still be some anomalies untested legally. Contrast this with Referenda, and they are all one offs, with the rules being written afresh each time. This I think is where the problem lies.

mini The whole problem with having that referendum is that the issues are too complex to condense into anything more than wanting to be in the EU vs wanting to be out

A dreadful choice for a referendum

There is no simple table that can quantify wins & losses
Too many complex factors all interacting
and many people won't agree on what is a win / loss, e.g. FOM, or EU grants

Even economists vary their estimates a lot, because it depends on what different countries and businesses do, what reactions this causes

This is why I want the HoC to take responsibility and do their job
and it is exactly the job of MPs, as our representatives, to study these issues in depth and vote according to their best judgement

MPs are basically running away from responsibility like Cameron did, but they are keeping their salaries & perks

{I know we can’t really know what the outcome of brexit will be. I would just like some simple honesty. Bullet point gains and losses. Surely someone can do that.}

Very happy to be contradicted but:
Gains are fewer EU 'immigrants' working in the UK and Blue passports.
Slight increase in the powers of UK courts.

Losses: Everything else. Purses/wallets lighter by around £900 per person.
If Remain, likely gradual loss of industry depending whether UK gov pulls it's finger out and invests and attracts new business.
WA, similar to remain but very heavily dependent on the UK gov being more proactive on revitalising the economy.
Leave with no deal. Damn good question but almost nothing is good.