Do you think if parliament votes against any deal TM agrees it is most likely to result in....

[Bearbehind]

A TAAT but it was my thread anyway!

This is fascinating me and there’s potentially more hope than I can see.

On another thread we’ve been discussing the repercussions of Labour voting down whatever deal TM cobbles together, even if it includes remaining in the SM / a CU.

I think that pushes us to no deal but there’s another train of thought which is that it would lead to a GE or 2nd vote and that will lead to calling the whole thing off and Remaining.

So, do you think that if parliament votes against any deal TM agrees it is most likely to lead to:-

A) No deal
B) Remaining
C) Something else whatever that may be!

A general election, tbh.

But on what platforms the parties would stand, I don't know. And nor do they.

No deal.
There isn’t time for an election or 2nd referendum before March.

I thought the EU said they would delay the exit in the event of a GE?

I think they have stoorie but my concern is voting down a deal, especially if that deal involves staying in SM/CU is going to lead to no deal rather than a no confidence vote and a GE.

While the EU have said in the past that they would consider delay for a GE or a SIGNIFICANT change of heart I am not certain that would still be the case as I think it was based on the UK gov being seen to make sensible progress. All signs so far are that they are still 'buggering around'. The wheedling, wining and a significant string of insults from all levels won't be making them too disposed to help.

No deal. Heaven help us.

There most certainly is time for a GE. Six weeks notice is required which would take us to 14th February 2019.

A Referendum would be much more difficult, because it would require new legislation.

What is the timeline here?

How long can TM delay any vote?

How long can she string out a no confidence vote?

Should the commons vote down Mays deal (which will NOT be a SM and CU one, as her party will split apart if she unilaterally bought this back from Brussels) she will then be forced to either have a GE or call a 2nd vote, if the eu will not agree to an extension of talks, she'll have to revoke Art50.

Reasons; Her Government has already told the nation of what a no-deal means, she there fore cannot go down this path, the political ramifications would destroy her and the Tories.
Just imagine 50 mile queues in Kent, no flights, limited food @ tesco, medicine shortages and subsequent death! millions unable to go on hols!!! and she knew this would happen but still went ahead.........

It just wont happen!

Sorry jas I just still don’t see either of your points.

TMs only ‘deal’ has to be some sort of soft Brexit / BINO fudge because it’s all the EU will agree to because nothing else solves the border issue.

If that gets voted down then no deal is more likely because, when it goes to rat shit, she can blame Labour for causing the destruction by not voting for her fudge.

I'm not really sure a GE would solve things? I mean we know Lib Dems and Greens would just campaign on a Remain ticket. Tories I reckon would be 'no deal' hard Brexit ticket. What would Labour campaign on? Soft SM & CU Brexit? Doubt it would be no Brexit at all. Given that the winner would likely be Labour or Tories we'd be in a no better place. Another hung parliament isn't at all unlikely as well. Brexit won't be the only issue in manifestos either so people will be voting on other campaign pledges. Any result will be take as support for their Brexit policy though, just like the '80% voted for Brexit supporting parties'.

Corbyn isn’t going to run any GE on a Reman ticket.

That’s half the problem here - he wants to leave the EU.

@jasjas1973

I wish I had your confidence but given large numbers of Tory party members are foaming at the mouth to get out of the EU many positively WANT no deal. May will be more concerned about what will be least damaging for the Tory party, country will be second priority.

@Bearbehind

I agree. Momentum consultation on Brexit does give a ray of hope though, most members seemed anti Brexit.

Bear i happen to agree that the only deal that solves the NI issue is one where we stay fully in the SM and a UK wide CU, tonight Fox has said that the Uk must be able to leave this unilaterally, that alone is unacceptable to the EU.

So, its not going to get through cabinet, so will not get to Brussels.

Whatever else, she presents to Brussels, will be rejected, so highly likely nothing is going through to the commons..what then?

What will damage the Tory party, infact destroy it, will be no deal, you simply cannot hide the effects of a no-deal, its not like closing down a 100 pits and doctoring some film footage.

Where as a u-turn can be presented as strong leadership and "in the national interest" i'm sure the Mail can come up with a suitably Churchillian headline.

I think a U turn, winning Brexit will also destroy the Tory party though, as will soft Brexit. I think the Tories are fucked whichever way they move. I GE could possibly save the Tory party assuming Labour won. The Tories could then lay this mess at their door and walk away relatively unscathed.

I think a U turn, binning Brexit

Whatever else, she presents to Brussels, will be rejected, so highly likely nothing is going through to the commons..what then?

That’s a different situation - in that case there is no deal to be voted on so a no confidence vote is much more likely.

Which in turn means the Tories will put party over country because they know Labour would come out of that situation well, so they will concede and allow a vote to go ahead based on a fudged deal.

mmmmmm not sure about that, i need more wine!!!!

But first thoughts would be "what would we be voting on?" It would be a similar re-run of 2016, so Remain or Leave with no-deal.

Perhaps a GE is more likely, as Kenn says, blame Labour! what do think?

I think wine is probably the only answer! 😂

The way I see it is TM will have to propose a fudge deal in order to avoid a no confidence vote.

The ERG will kick up a fuss on the face of it but they know, if Labour vote it down on principle they are actually more likely to achieve no deal and get to blame Labour if when it goes wrong.

I think wine is probably the only answer!

Well I hope you're stocking up before 29th March.

Pretty certain that when it comes down to it and those Leaver bastards are staring into the abyss, they will bottle it.
Davies is already carving out a nice little earner for himself as a Brexshit pundit. That's his future. He utterly failed as Brexshit minister and he can make loads of dosh blah blah blaming about whatever bollocks he waffles on about.

Totally agree, I just hope the EU stick to their principals, if they do, (imho) the UK will remain in the EU.