Westministenders: Reality Bytes

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight the Corbyn and McDonnell Labour Party supported the Tory Party in improving the tax allowance for higher rate tax payers.

Yes you read that right. Did you even blink?

You've been so conditioned into seeing non existant opposition which seems to go against everything the Labour Party stand for that you no longer are shocked.

That's what 2 and a half years of Brexit has done to you.

You no longer care that Boris Johnson got £14,000 from the Saudis a couple of days before the Khashoggi murder. You know longer care that the former Defence Secretary is employed for £75,000 a year to advise a major Saudi Investor.

You are just happy that Trump hasn't started a war with Iran or North Korea yet. And hasn't started a civil war. (Though he's trying hard and next week is his best opportunity to stir it all up). You aren't surprised to hear that predictions are that the Democrats will fail to make gains in the mid terms.

You've suffered the 4657 story about how Therea May is just about to be challenged for the leadership.

You've heard about the squad set up at the Home Office to clear up all the cases the media get their hands on as the latest burning injustice. You are hearing that EU nationals who have been promised they are 'safe' are being subjected to questions about their right to stay. And you just shrug and say, "Yeah well thats the Home Office for you. The Bastards". And you do mean it, but you are so jaded by it all. And you worry that another 12 months from now, you won't even be interested in another story like that, and the press will stop printing them as they no longer interest the reader. What happens to your friends, your family, or even you then? Who is going to care then?

And then you have today.

A day where you hear that Bannon is being investigated by the Senate Intel Committee, Farage has been upgraded to the FBI's Really Naughty List and Banks has (FINALLY) been refered to the NCA. (We were only speculating on the possibility, on the 26th March...)

And you go 'Ooooooooo maybe there is hope'.

Maybe we COULD remain in the EU and avoid Turnip Soup and wiping your arse with leaves because of the national bog roll shortage. Or at least get a decent deal which suits us as a nation. Maybe, just maybe!

And that lasts for about 2 minutes before you log into twitter and the very first thing you see this:

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: David Cameron tells friends he’d like a return to frontline politics, and fancies Foreign Secretary
www.thesun.co.uk/news/7639377/david-cameron-return-to-politics/

And you let out a high pitched screech as if you are were a dying cat as you remember this is 2018, and it just wants to beat the life out of you.

On the plus side, it shows you do still care enough to think 'Don't let that fucking bastard anywhere near power ever, ever again.'.

Ho hum.

Keep on, keeping on. Don't let the bastards win.
Keep caring. It matters.

But no deal is the default, it doesn’t have to be voted for and it’s going to be tricky to avoid. If the deal is voted down what happens? Labour push for an election and if not successful they push for a People’s Vote. What happens if TM refuses to consider either? If she just stalls then we get a no deal Brexit. Exactly what a lot of her party/voters claim to want. I really hope my understanding of this is wrong.

Could she take the decision to sign up for her deal even if parliament voted it down? What last minute options does she have?

No confidence vote they dont need May to consider.

mrs

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-46112355?__twitter_impression=true
How John Bercow keeps Keith Vaz's secrets

In the 17th century, England had a problem with laws on sedition. MPs could not speak freely about the king's policies for fear of judges. To solve that problem, we adopted a special guard against tyranny: "parliamentary privilege". Now, John Bercow, speaker of the House of Commons, has invoked it to stop Newsnight getting information about the behaviour of the MP Keith Vaz.

Ffs

#OperationRemoveBercow to Crash Out

Did anyone not know about Vaz?

BBC seems to have a new notion “an old-fashioned border” (in Ireland). Or is it common parlance and I’ve missed it previously?

I’ve never heard that.
Do they mean some future border is going to be old-fashioned? Isn’t that the opposite of the imaginary “high-tech” solution.

Of if they’re referring to the pre-GFA border... I suppose it’s less likely to provoke complaints for middle England than saying “the border where British soldiers assaulted and abused Irish people and were shot at it return”. Instead, old-fashioned makes it almost sound quaint.

Vaz is a particular reptile. Bercow needs to go for about half a dozen reasons. Him going also sparks a constitutional crisis which he knows, so he feels untouchable.

And we have a May who needs to go for about half a dozen reasons. And an opposition leader.

But hey folks, at least we aren't America!

Mrs8 did you see this?

“the border where British soldiers assaulted and abused Irish people and were shot at it return”.
exactly.

I am more impressed with the way ordinary Democrats have organised and fought back, red than anything we've done here since 2010.

I like Bercow, he is one of the best Speakers we ve had.

I do not believe MPs behaviour should be laid at his door, MPs are supposed to be the very best in society, if they are badly behaved then they shouldn't be MPs and Bercow cannot remove them from office, no one seems to be able too, not even their party! and that is where the real problem lies.

The Tories would love to get rid of him, especially as Brexit looms, this would be a very bad time for an inexperienced Speaker to take office.

ALDI, They are German I believe, offering to help Britain at Christmastime.

I really don't think no deal is a possibility- too damaging even according to the government's own assessments. I think it's far more likely that after much to-ing and fro-ing (and brinkmanship) that brexiteers will accept a deal for a CU with a backstop. It would push back the actual brexit they want but I'm sure they're betting for political winds to turn in favour of a ref in NI. Once that happens-assuming it's in favour of a reunited Ireland- there would be nothing standing in the way of Singapore on Thames, as the UK would already be out of the EU. I think that's ultimately more important to them than the integrity of the uk.

But a no confidence vote will need Conservatives/ DUP vote against her - is that likely? The ERG might but as they are on course to get what they want by default, why would they risk another election which might result in a Labour gov and potential a PV/Brexit reversal.

Blair says vote down the deal, because he thinks it the best chance to obtain a last minute panicked Remain from the PM,
or if we crash out with No Deal, then a much quicker Rejoin than if we are struggling along with Son of Chequers for years.

I can’t see the ERG and the hard Brexiteers going for CU + backstop. It’s the worst possible outcome for them, it leaves the country completely at the mercy of the EU without an end in sight. I think they would prefer no deal to that, or even to remain.

A No Deal is at least a 50% probability:

iirc a Commission spokesperson said the chances are 50:50

May and most of her Cabinet would rather No Deal than a deal that tears the Tory Party to pieces,
because they think they can blame EU "punishment" for all the bad effects after Brexit
and hence suffer less damage

Also, some Tory MPs and donors stand to make vast sums from Singapore-on-Thames, after a crashout,
but not much profit from Norway+

The govt could gamble that NI will vote to join the rest of ireland within the next 10 years or so, because of the changing demographics there

So, the backstop would not be needed forever

Trade deals take 5-15 years to negotiate, anyway
So the UK might not have finished negotiating the EU trade deal by then, let alone all the deals it needs with the rest of the world - the UK would be very pushed to run even 2 sets of negotiations in parallel, never mind the 30+ FTAs it urgently needs to replace the existing ones

some Tory MPs and donors stand to make vast sums from Singapore-on-Thames, after a crashout
Would they really make that much money if the economy was completely destroyed though?

So it probably needs to share the EU's trade deals - which could happen within a CU - for at least 10 years anyway,
probably a lot more, as a country starting with no trade deals whatsoever

I would love a last minute remain, but can the PM unilaterally take a decision like that? Is it possible for her to revoke article 50 on her own at the last minute?

*The govt could gamble that NI will vote to join the rest of ireland within the next 10 years or so, because of the changing demographics there

So, the backstop would not be needed forever*

Exactly my thoughts BCF and in that scenario, because it takes so long to negotiate other trade deals, the CU is simply a necessary but temporary solution to keep the economy ticking over whilst already disengaging from the EU (politically at least).

That's if brexiteers decide to play the long game. But let's not forget some of them have been at it for the last few decades!

There are huge sums to be made from hedging Sterling or business shares, buying businesses dirt cheap;
even parts of the NHS at "mates' rates"

The looters in waiting are some of those who gained vast fortune when Russia had an economic meltdown in the 1990s, after the USSR collapsed
Others who weren't around then, want their chance to loot a country

The UK as much larger economy than Russia, has vastly more potential, even without that kind of meltdowen