Westminstenders: Crisis. What Crisis

[RedToothBrush]

October is slowly rolling into November.

Your eyes, rightly, will be distracted by events the other side of the pond.

It won't be good and it won't be pretty and it will have an impact on what happens here in relation to Brexit in one way or another.

May seems to have headed off trouble makers for now. But that means nothing if she can't get a deal through parliament.

And if you think we are in anyway prepared for No Deal I'd like whatever drugs you are taking. That way lies only disorder and to put it bluntly, deaths.

We MUST find a deal, any deal to prevent that. Desperation is the final ingredients in this mess. Who will blink as they realise what's at stake?

The problem is though, is too few MPs have grasped what's at state, such is the quality of our elected representatives. And that's the truly terrifying bit.

If they can't work out the risk of no deal, they certainly not equipped to handle the fall out of no deal.

If you want to shit yourself anymore, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that the minister responsible for hauling all your food and medical supplies in the event if no deal, is Mr Christopher Grayling.

Start praying.

MPs have no veto over no deal but there is a no cofidence vote...

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-no-deal-house-of-commons-legal-veto-parliament-meaningful-vote-theresa-may-a8603541.html

From the article Hazardswan linked to:

Ms May has previously insisted that MPs will only be able to choose between her deal and a no-deal Brexit.

However, her stance appears to have softened in recent days.

Asked last week what would happen if no deal is agreed, Ms May told MPs: “If, at the end of the negotiation process, both sides agreed that no deal was there, that would actually come back to this House, and then we would see what position the House would take in the circumstances of the time.”

I think my brain is unable to process any more of this today. Any theories on what she is actually saying here?

It sounded to me like she was detaching herself from the responsibility...as if she hasn't been the main player as priminster.

Thankfully less hardline though...

I'm convinced brexit will have no deal but I am not convinced it's 100% going ahead.

I suppose the budget tomorrow? will be vaguely revealing as Hammond has suggested 2 'versions' so almost by definition one must be 'wrong'.

Are the DUP still threatening to vote against the budget ? The media seems to have gone quiet on this issue so not sure whether I have missed a truce.

I'm convinced brexit will have no deal but I am not convinced it's 100% going ahead.

I sometimes feel like this Hazard but I think just because it’s such an insanely suicidal path for a country to be taking rather than because I can actually see anything stopping it.

Are the DUP still threatening to vote against the budget ? The media seems to have gone quiet on this issue so not sure whether I have missed a truce.

There was a suggestion that in these FTPA days, failure to pass a budget was no longer a hanging election triggering offence.

Whether that was a dare, a statement of opinion, or carefully researched legal fact, no one knows.

So, no change there.

The city seems to think we must get some sort of deal? I'm saying this because surely if they thought no deal was on the cards the markets would be responding to that?

I was out and about earlier and noticed police cars parked close to the two local synagogues .

Tom Malinowski, a Democratic congressional candidate in New Jersey who served as assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights and labor in the Obama administration, posted a statement on his website saying that deranged people have always been around but that the political climate has changed.

“Our highest national leaders are legitimizing rhetoric once confined to the paranoid extremes of our society — railing against ‘globalists,’ who all happen to be prominent Jews, complaining about ‘white genocide,’ attacking immigrants for ‘threatening our culture,’ and spreading crackpot conspiracy theories to advocate imprisoning their political opponents,” said Malinowski, who long served as the Washington director for Human Rights Watch. “These words are like sparks to the gasoline of disturbed minds. These words can kill.”
www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/10/27/pittsburgh-police-responding-active-shooting-squirrel-hill-area/?noredirect=on

'Global' and 'cosmopolitan elite' have long been euphemisms for 'Jews', especially the latter.

A lot of well-deserved criticism is directed at Labour right now for anti-Semitism, but Theresa May had her own 'citizens of nowhere' moment too, and I would argue that all rhetoric of this type always contributes to the creation of a hostile environment for Jews. TM followed the footsteps of none other than Adolph Hitler.

If the DUP vote against the budget, or even abstain, then the budget will fall
(assuming everyone else votes on party lines)

Under FTPA, that's not a direct confidence vote
However, then Labour would certainly call a vote of No Confidence
(unless they really want to avoid carrying the can for Brexit)
That would be a decisive vote.

If the DUP refuse the "C" part of "confidence & supply", then Corbyn (and May) have 14 days to gain support of sufficient MPs for at least C&S

If neither can do it, it is GE time.

BUT
the DUP would be very reluctant to let things go this far, because after a GE,
they probably won't hold the same pivotal role and could be ignored.

So, unless they are even more stupid than we think, they'll just use the budget as an almost last chance to apply pressure on this govt against an NI backstop

Thanks DG and BigChoc

Kenn imo, the financial markets are waiting until they are sure there will be no deal.
Many still can't believe any sane govt would really do this
and are expecting a last minute climbdown (some UK spivs are Brexiters who think this climbdown will be by the EU)

They might start to panic if May announces the emergency prep for no deal on Monday 12 Nov,
which is reportedly the last date when there would actually be time to (theoretically) do the essential prepping

However, according to the National Audit Office Report 19.10.2018, 11 out of 12 main prepping aims will not be completed on time
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/The-UK-border-preparedness-for-EU-exit.pdf

There are many European leaders who would jump at the chance of manufacturing/financial trading 'coups' to grab the deal from the UK.
Mr Macron had a 'invite manufacturers leaders to the Elysee' event a few weeks back, Mrs Merkel is in a spot of bother so a bit of a boost would help her too.

11 out of 12 main prepping aims will not be completed on time
And 150 SIs a month..........

@Billbrowder
This is horrifying if true. According to the @dailyexpressuk British intelligence knew about the Saudi plot to go after Jamal Khashoggi THREE weeks the Saudis killed but failed to warm him.

MURDERED journalist Jamal Khashoggi was about to disclose details of Saudi Arabia’s use of chemical weapons in Yemen, sources close to him said last night. The revelations come as separate intelligence sources disclosed that Britain had first been made aware of a plot a full three weeks before he walked into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul

Intercepts by GCHQ of internal communications by the kingdom’s General Intelligence Directorate revealed orders by a “member of the royal circle” to abduct the troublesome journalist and take him back to Saudi Arabia

www.express.co.uk/news/world/1037378/Khashoggi-murder-news-saudi-arabia-chemical-weapons-use

Adonis is tabling a question tomorrow.

It's a minority movement with cash and bots, focussed on a media illiterate anglophone demographic.

It's not even an anglophone demographicin general that is lapping it up. It's just the media illiterate English and to some extent the Welsh.

Ireland, a majority in NI apart from the DUP whose motivation is distinct from English motivation, and a majority in Scotland have not drunk the Kool Aid.

I see that the Government's "contingency plan" is stated to be "taking the risk at the border".

A great article about the fact the big problem associated with the fact Scotland and NI will be taken out of the EU wo their consent! And all the issues that are coming out of doing that sort of things wo thé population consent.
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-three-state-union-may-be-answer-to-brexit-1.2734041?fbclid=IwAR3oYroSfVPyBtH8LN8SJT4TJhwI9lJC-vdVjOqMkzsOUjXNZ0YTdGcGwzg

And again from Ireland, some advice about getting ready there.
www.irishtimes.com/sponsored/pwc/brexit-businesses-need-to-prepare-now-despite-apparent-slow-pace-of-progress-1.3669139
That is standing out for me
And that reality is stark. O’Loughlin explains that even in the most benign circumstances the trade dislocation caused by Brexit will be enormous. “All this talk about Canada Plus or Canada Plus-Plus-Plus is pointless. All that a free trade agreement will do is eliminate tariffs on a range of goods, and for some products that won’t even be the case. It won’t eliminate customs checks, it won’t eliminate inspections under other regulations, it won’t affect import VAT rules, and it won’t prevent delays at ports and borders. Once Britain leaves the Single Market it is out. Goods either originating in or passing through the UK won’t be able to move freely throughout the EU any longer. They will be subject to all the same checks as goods from any third country. That will be the case regardless of how hard or soft the eventual Brexit becomes.”

The idea that whatever the deal/solution found, the disruptions will still be huge is an interesting one.
Which then bears the question: why is it that the government hasn’t done MORE to get ready re customs etc..??

The government still hasn't got a concise and clear view of what 'Brexit ' is yet that they can (mostly) agree on. It declared it wanted to be 'out' but not by how much and definitely hadn't worked out any details in advance.

When you go out of your front door, you have an idea whether you are going to work, the shops or swimming and prepare as necessary. 2 and a half years on no one really knows except the front door is swinging shut and they haven't taken a key with them.

Gosh. Michael Higgins' speech.
twitter.com/malonebarry/status/1056356434034724864

Conservative Home survey

news.conservativehome.com/t/ViewEmail/r/374D48ADDA3335612540EF23F30FEDED/365105E7FBEE7F996707B176AE29F890?fbclid=IwAR106VL6-wxGVbhQe1r314_bd0JAmoJa2oQtloaME_91uzJyAvEsQn8uSqk

Shit... not brexit related but really bad news for Brazil and for the planet as a whole (Bolsonaro wants to step up deforestation)

:www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live

Again with working link

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live

These far right guys all keep using the same words

"God willing, tomorrow will be our new independence day," Bolsonaro tweeted.