Charting our nemesis

[lonelyplanetmum]

Which chart encapsulates this nightmare for you?

This is the pie chart that I showed my FIL when he was repeating Farage’s drivel. The government’s own 2016 figures showed how statistically insignificant our EU budget percentage contribution always was.

This one is the deficit we enjoy with the EU in return. (And the surplus we enjoy with the rest of the world.)

The economist Christopher Smallwood says the UK’s trade performance has deteriorated because the single market and the customs union are designed to suit other countries, Germany in particular, but not Britain.

“It is not surprising that our trade deficit with the EU continues to grow, because the single market and customs union does not represent a free trade area. It is a free trade area only in goods. Manufactured goods represent Germany’s comparative advantage, whereas ours is in services.

“We have entered into a lop-sided arrangement under which all impediments to trade have been removed from areas where our trading partners are strong but not from areas where we are strong. So obviously our overall trade deficit with them has gone on rising, and will continue to do so.”

Larry Elliott: 'Business groups say that leaving the single market and the customs’ union will make matters even worse, but imagine the UK on the outside weighing up the pros and cons of joining a club where the trading rules amplified our weaknesses and nullified our strengths. Would we really be gagging to join?'

Larry Elliot is the Guardian's tame Leaver. The last article of his that I read was all "we hope", "we wish", "we might".

If we were in a lop sided arrangement then why didn't we try to negotiate better, rather than just say, "let's scrap that and take a gamble on not getting even more lop sided arrangements with those who want to deal with us?"

I wonder why Thatcher promoted the Single Market in the way that she did, if it was so unfavourable?

I'm sorry Milly but look at the first post on the thread. What we paid into the EU only makes sense as a proportion of GDP.

Then look at the second chart on the thread to see how the UKs prosperity was immensely transformed by membership. We were ( past tense ) the fifth strongest economy until 2016.

Very handy little summary from the beloved new govt department - for exiting the EU (DExEU).
A no deal Brexit will cost the UK £158 billion per year so £ 3 Billion per week. That dwarfs the exaggerated £350 million we were supposed to save according to the bus.

At least the govt is no longer keeping it all secret I suppose.

UK employment at highest since 1971.

Low investment reflects the broader economic picture.

The U.K. was a leading G7 economy in terms of growth before the referendum. Two years later, it is at the bottom.

Bloomberg = Merrill Lynch.
The black dotted line on your chart is meaningless bullshit.
The blue line since 2016 is perfectly respectable in an economic downturn.

That's rather unnecessarily rude. I think Merrill Lynch know what they are talking about. Also if you compare where we are now -compared to the trajectory economists predicted, we are looking in very bad shape.

Despite the jobs market numerous economists warned that employers are hiring contractors rather than full-time staff - temporary self -employment accounts for two thirds of the rise in new jobs.

81 experienced economists answered a variety of questions about the economy in the attached FT piece. Despite some job losses plus the short term hires mentioned upthread they were pessimistic about 2019; all forecasting that Brexit will hobble economic growth.

Also whilst Brexit could perversely benefit the economy in the very short-term by prompting firms to raise activity in preparation for no deal.All analysts warn that the UK’s dominant services sector remained close to flatlining.

Overseas businesses are all scaling back investment in the UK and moving operations overseas. By the third quarter of 2018, cumulative GDP growth since the referendum was 1 percentage point lower than had previously been predicted. That's just 2018 (before we leave) long-term investment, business expansion, and economic activity look weak and the government's own suppressed figures acknowledge this.

The best possible outcome for the economy, which would be to remain in the EU especially with world economic issues looming which both sides of the debate appear to acknowledge.

economists_summary

I think Merrill Lynch know what they are talking about. Merrill Lynch is the bank that had to be flogged off to the Bank of America because of the vast losses they made on their insane unhedged mortgage portfolio. Why would you believe the purely speculative dotted line on their chart? It's meaningless.

Sorry I was rude though.

{Why would you believe the purely speculative dotted line on their chart? It's meaningless.}

It is always a bad idea to look at only 1 set of data and make critical decisions from that but on the basis that chard is published and has not been challenged professionally suggests that although exact figures may be disputed the trend is essentially correct. If you have work done on your house you would always get at least 3 quotes and you would go for the company that you felt most comfortable with, although it may not be the cheapest.
If you want to 'microexamine' Brexit it would be possible to come up with wildly different possible outcomes. So far the trend of most information is not good for the UK.

Why would you believe the purely speculative dotted line on their chart?

I'd rather believe consensus among economists rather than a stranger over the Internet. Economists are more able to draw conclusions about the economy, investment and jobs because of their skill and experience.

Also many experienced economists and business leaders say the same thing:

• BCC Chamber of Commerce
•evidencetreasurycommmitte
• ONS

I don't know why anyone would still try and make out that Brexit is good for the economy when even the govt impact assessment have conceded that there will be at least an 8 to 11% hit.

If you want to pursue a Leave argument a more effective one is that yes there will be a huge financial cost to everyone but that other things are more important?

• There revoke Article 50 petition signatories are UK based. Unlike the ref there is no evidence of outside influences impacting on this petition. On this occasion the figures of non-UK signatories are insignificant.
• The data demonstrates that signatures are largely genuine. Non-domestic signatures are indicative of ex-pats and those on holiday signing too.

revoke~article~50~stats~petition

.

@Millyonthe believes that brexit will not have a negative effect on the economy. I've asked her (several times) on another thread for the main points of her economic analysis and her research that supports that opinion, but unfortunately, she never responded.

You never know, she might put up a nice chart here ( based on reputable data obviously) to support her claims.

Absolutely brilliant thread OP.

My fantasy chart is government recommended daily fruit and veg portions
Before Brexit: 5 a day *orange juice counts
After Brexit : 1 a day *fish counts

@Millyonthe - no need for a fancy chart. A bulleted list would be fine.

A chart for those trying to get their head around the indicative votes from Wednesday..

This has probably been posted but it's one of my fav. Total lack of interest in the Euro as an issue prior to 2016.

The EU not Euro

Ooooh I do love a good chart. Will share with my mum as colourful visual things might be more effective than my rather passionate discussion

Thanks Shambu- it's weird isn't it.

Statistically, the only real interest in the EU before the ref was in the divisions of the Tory party and now we've all become interested too.

Some CBI and government figures on the consequences of No deal.

Interesting that Northern Ireland does not have a negative in front of the 9.1%. is this an error or are they anticipating significant growth?