Charting our nemesis

[lonelyplanetmum]

Which chart encapsulates this nightmare for you?

This is the pie chart that I showed my FIL when he was repeating Farage’s drivel. The government’s own 2016 figures showed how statistically insignificant our EU budget percentage contribution always was.

This is a thread for charts but we could start a new thread on trade deficits. We could have a trade deficit whether we do 40% trade with the EU or elsewhere.

Anyway trade deficits can be good, or bad or neutral.

A trade deficit certainly doesn't detract from the benefits the EU has brought to our economy.
About 60 wealthy EU and non EU countries have trade deficits. The notion that trade deficits are bad of themselves is overwhelmingly rejected by trade experts and economists.

It's often discussed in a US context:

•<a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_O%27Sullivan_(economist)" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">O'Sullivan, Arthur</a>; <span class="italic">Economics: Principles in Action</span>.
• <a class="break-all" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/06/economists-take-aim-at-trump-trade-theory-again-peter-navarro-bilateral-multilateral-trade-deals-china-germany-national-security/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Economists Take Aim at Trump Trade Theory — Again"</a>. <a class="break-all" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Policy_(magazine)" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>y^.  “trade experts and economists across the political spectrum, who said that line of thinking on economics was flawed. Economists say trade deficits aren’t an indication of good or bad economic times, but rather a function of savings and investments. (The United States enjoyed a stellar trade surplus during the Great Depression in the 1930s, for example.) 
•<a class="break-all" href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-03-01/trump-warns-trade-deficits-economists-say-who-cares" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">"Trump warns of trade deficits. Economists say, who cares?"</a>

Norway's giant state investment fund has said it will increase its investment in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47399500

Lonely: Anyway trade deficits can be good I know this is a school of thought, Lonely, but I don't really subscribe to it - not in the longterm. I would far rather the UK was in Norway's position - see my post above. Norway has had a trade surplus for decades now. However, at least they are investing in the UK. I take that as a vote of confidence - whether we Brexit or not we have a very strong economy.

And how was Norway able to develop its enormous Sovereign Wealth Fund and run a trade surplus?

And why was the UK not able to do this?

Because Norwegian governments have been more sensible and prudent than ours - in all ways - including never joining the EU.

Norway is the model we should try to emulate not the fucking EU.

And how was Norway able to develop its enormous Sovereign Wealth Fund and run a trade surplus?

North Sea oil.

And why was the UK not able to do this?

2. Not as much oil, 10 times higher population, expensive global ambitions and bad management.

So Norway is a very sensible well-managed country.
And they never joined the EU.

True.

Because Norwegian governments have been more sensible and prudent than ours - in all ways - including never joining the EU.

How exactly have they benefited from not joining the EU? Have they made numerous trade deals with wealthy countries the EU hasn't got deals with? Have they used their 'freedom' to pass beneficial laws that the EU wouldn't allow them to set? Is this the secret of their success?

Or is it just that they're a tiny population sat on a shit-load of oil and their governments have used the revenues from it for the long-term good of the country instead of funding tax giveaways to curry favour with the electorate and getting over-involved in questionable military activity throughout the world.

Norway has tomakefinancial contributions to the EU as a member of the single market—but these are typically smaller than the payments madeby EU member states.Norway can striketrade dealswith non-EU countries—something EU member states cannotdo.

This is meant to be a chart thread. I'm glad there seems to be agreement that EU immigration (under a Norway type arrangement) brings s positive net contribution to the U.K. economy anyway.The penny seems to be dropping.

As a member of the EEA, Norway applies the same free movement rules as EU member states, but has no vote on the rules. In Norway this actually results in far higher inward EU migration than the UK,as a percentage of the countries’ total populations.

openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/what-would-a-norway-style-relationship-with-the-eu-entail/

'

Thought this was interesting too from Colin Talbot (University of Cambridge). He thinks that the most likely outcome is Norway, as no other option has the parliamentary numbers.

His predictions are correct so far.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12/13/the-most-likely-brexit-outcome-is-norway/

There's a fluid element and some guess work.Who votes for what will partly depend on the exact terms of amendments that are being be voted on.

That's reassuring Lonely because Norway is apparently what most of the people want too.

theconversation.com/british-public-open-to-compromise-on-brexit-deal-new-research-finds-80985

Norway is a special case and it's trade models don't suit the UK.
They have a small population and relatively limited industry concentrated on a small range of 'products' whereas the UK is far more diverse.
They are (on the whole) happy to be rule takers from the EU as the areas covered do not worry them since they are broadly in line with how they would approach things anyway.
The whole EFTA operation is significantly smaller than the EU trade and for the UK to join and then demand to throw it's weight around would upset the system which suits it's current members, hence they are not keen on the UK joining.
You have to bear in mind that the whole of the world is watching, and understands what the UK is doing and all they can see is a petulant child throwing it's toys out of the pram and insulting other nations as it goes on. Many have been on the 'wrong end' of the UK historically and see the UK for how it really is, incompetent and bullying, certainly of late.
Thus something like the Norway model might be cobbled together but it will take years to put together.

If you want people to come roind to your point of view, it's best not to call them incompetent and bullying.

If other nations see the UK as incompetent and bullying, and historically there is enough evidence to show that they do e.g. the latest judgement re the Chagos Islands, then the sooner the nation admits to it the better.

May could have dealt with the whole Brexit business much more effectively if she hadn't decided that she would go in picking a fight with the EU, while telling the half of the population who voted Remain to get lost.

Hear Hear Peregrina

{If you want people to come round to your point of view, it's best not to call them incompetent and bullying.}

So how would you describe the UK government's antics for the last 3 years?

I would say the UK govt (May, Hammond and their civil servants such as Robbins) have been enacting a charade designed to keep us in the EU because that's what they think is best. That's why nearly all the other ministers have resigned.

Sorry LeClerc you did not say the UK govt was incompetent and bullying you said the UK. People in the UK are just as competent and kind as people anywhere.

Obviously the phrase referred to the U.K. approach to international relations and incompetent, bullying and most of all arrogant is pretty apposite.

Now back to charts please as this is a thread for facts- there are other threads for feelz!

{ People in the UK are just as competent and kind as people anywhere.}

It could be interpreted (inaccurately) from 'leavers' voting to eliminate immigrants, particularly from the EU that the UK populace is not particularly welcoming and accepting, You know the ones that were shouting 'We won' 2 years ago.

These two charts are interesting. The first one is what we pay into the EU.