Charting our nemesis

[lonelyplanetmum]

Which chart encapsulates this nightmare for you?

This is the pie chart that I showed my FIL when he was repeating Farage’s drivel. The government’s own 2016 figures showed how statistically insignificant our EU budget percentage contribution always was.

I think it's an error- the shading shows the severity of the negative impact. This would also be consistent with what I've read elsewhere.

A chart for those trying to get their head around the second round of indicative votes from Monday.
You can compare to the first round upthread.

UCL-YouGov, 5000+ UK voters ranking the outcomes for Brexit.

article here (link: <a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=bit.ly/2UGHgtK)" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/2UGHgtK)

No Deal is the least preferred outcome (despite what ERG say), but it is still the preferred outcome for Leave voters.

jonworth.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/BrexitPlanB-V26.png

I wonder if maybe, just maybe the massive disparity in wealth between the poorest and richest regions in the UK had an influence on the result of the EU Referendum

I wonder if maybe, just maybe hmm the massive disparity in wealth between the poorest and richest regions in the UK had an influence on the result of the EU Referendum

Just googled - Full Fact;

"One measure of inequality makes the UK look far less equal than other countries—it’s not."

"The data used to make this graph is largely technically accurate, but it’s comparing very unequal geographic areas so it’s not a fair comparison."

"It makes the UK look like it has a much bigger gap between its richest and poorest regions than all the other countries in the graph; in fact this gulf between the UK and other countries is more a result of how the data is collected, rather than showing the actual regional inequality people experience."

"The UK’s income inequality is about average for similar high-income countries when using another measure."

fullfact.org/economy/regional-inequality-figures-misleading/

You missed the point that inequality is growing in the UK, not decreasing

Poverty is increasing
Food bank use is increasing

The government admit that our economy will be worse off for many years because of leaving the EU.

I don't see what the point is in denying these facts. Say the costs are 'worth it' by all means - but don't deny the decreased wealth and its effects.

The government admit that our economy will be worse off for many years because of leaving the EU

Depends which MP you listen to. Those who support remain will always paint a different picture to those that support leave.

I don't see what the point is in denying these facts. Say the costs are 'worth it' by all means - but don't deny the decreased wealth and its effects

Maybe those who voted leave are prepared to be worse off in return for freedom? Some might make the analogy with divorce. Often both partners are worse off after divorce, but if they are more happy they will say it was worth it?

I don't claim to know all 33.5 million who voted, but have not yet met anyone who has indicated they would change their vote. If anything those that voted leave may be more determined to vote the same again as if they change their vote it is like admitting they were wrong all the time. Maybe they will vote to save face?

Wages have risen since the Leave vote.
When the flow of cheap labour slows, employers have to pay more.
Eventually they will have to invest in innovative technology. Then you have increased productivity and higher wages. Never going to happen if FoM continues to pull in cheap labour. Image taken from today's story about falling unemployment on BBC.

It looks superficially good that there is wage growth

However this isn't linked to Brexit affecting immigration - as Immigration is increasing . EU migrants are leaving in droves but non EU immigration has increased.

As I understand it there are other factors at play. Due to Brexit business investment has slowed dramatically - both internally and international investment coming in. This combines with a rapidly weakening demand for our goods and services from China and Europe etc. The Bank of E said GDP is already 1.2% lower than expected three years ago and is falling.

So lower business investment hampers efficiency and productivity.So there's a short term effect on wages but a long term negative economic impact.

Reluctance to invest in businesses and technology and use of temporary workers make employment and wages look higher.

However the full picture shows incomes in real terms (once the cost of living is accounted for) remain lower than before the financial crisis over ten years ago.

What the Economist article says in full is:

"The question is whether wage growth will accelerate further...at its current rate real pay will not return to its pre-crisis peak until 2022.
Yet few economists believe Britain will soon resume the healthy productivity growth of the post-war period, which was consistent with real-terms pay rises of some 3% a year. The IMF expects British productivity growth to be weaker than in any other big, rich country this year.
Already there are signs that firms are struggling to afford the modest pay settlements that their workers are demanding. The cost of staffing per unit of output, a measure of domestically generated inflation, grew by 1.7% in 2017 but by 2.7% last year. To absorb these extra costs some firms are accepting lower profits. Other firms are passing them on to customers, stoking consumer-price inflation, which hovers around the Bank of England’s 2% target."

.

Unskilled immigration has decreased since the Leave vote.

If you get a wage rise it's not superficially good. It's good.

Wages are only a short term part of the picture when the economy is contracting overall. The shrinking of GDP will be used as an excuse for many measures including the austerity imposed on state education and the irreversible dismantling the NHS.

The Wage rises are only a short term part of the picture. All the economist referred to in the Economist piece say the economy is contracting overall as the government's own impact assessments predicted too.

The shrinking of GDP is a worry for public expenditure. It will be used as an excuse for many measures including the austerity already imposed on state education and the irreversible dismantling the NHS.

The biggest problem at the moment is that the UK particularly is in a 'Brexit bubble' and employers, particularly manufacturers are not doing 'normal' things so although many will be doing what is necessary to stockpile so may be getting extra labour in unless the outcome when the government decide what the hell they are doing, may cripple manufacturing when the UK leaves. So yes things can look great at the moment, but there is no saying what it will look like in 6 - 9 months time.

Agreed. We need certainty and and an end to cheap labour so that businesses can invest in new tech.

Two very illuminating diagrams I saw recently regarding the UK/Irish Border

Thanks for the diagrams-basically the same as this one.

It does encapsulate the insoluble problem. Is anything being done in the 6 months penalty time to try and address it.

@lonelyplanetmum - basically the same as this one

Except for pretty picture of the unicorn in the centre

Is anything being done in the 6 months penalty time to try and address it.

The talk of staying in the customs union hopefully means they are considering it. C is definitionally the least bad of the options.

I think the govt is just hoping a unicorn option will emerge.

Unemployment is now at the low levels not seen since the early 1970s, just before we joined the EEC/EU.

We vote to Leave and for the first time in the 40+ years of EEC/EU membership unemployment falls to pre EEC/EU levels. Weird.

Chart is from todays BBC article on rising wages / falling unemployment.