Govt preparing for civil unrest....

[99RedBalloonsFloating]

www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?jcode=1603914

@StealthPolarBear

In fairness my home is very unlikely to be at risk and my job isn't going until March when we're actually out. There is also a chance I might survive the cut, almost all of my department is going though. It is a direct result of Brexit.

I guessed you'd have a job until March ish, that's still bad! All for a change whicg is meant to be a positive thing :(

I also wonder if this wilful ploughing ahead and into disaster isn't part of wider attack on democracy itself.
There's a reason referenda are distrusted in many countries (Napoleon and Hitler both loved them by the way- not exactly beacons of democracy). They can be so easily manipulated and passed off as 'the will of the people' - and then you get mob rule.
If this whole situation turns out very badly, with severe unrest, this could be a dream opportunity for authoritarian elements to take over with the argument "see what happened last time we listened to the people, now leave it to the strong men".
Very dangerous indeed.

The threat of any civil unrest will be as a consequence of the way our government has failed to prepare and organise

I agree with this. All (major) parties agreed to honour the vote, even though it was just advisory. Having done so, the government should have put every effort into planning departure from the EU and discussed with the EU a possible mutually acceptable approach.

Instead, May went ahead and invoked Article 50 with no plan whatsoever and a shambolic team of politicians with no proven ability to deliver anything. There were no designs or requirements documented to set out how transport, borders, trade etc. would be handled. No impact assessments on health, education, industry etc were carried out. With the clock ticking, politicians have spent more time and effort on promoting their own selfish interests.

We are where we are due solely to the arrogance, ignorance and ineptitude of politicians, so it's hardly surprising that some thought is being given to the implications of the chaotic past 2 years.

Its a very scary scenario. DH was home late last night. Senior management meeting about what the structure of the organisation will look like after March in the (likely) even of economic slowdown.

Significant reductions.

I think a lot of it is media-fuelled panic. Happens every time. We had the Y2K debacle (nothing happened), the businesses not hiring after 9/11 for a while when I couldn't get a temp admin job (nothing happened). All went back to normal. Every winter if the weather is predicted to be snowy, people go nuts emptying the shops, etc.

I didn't vote leave, incidentally, but I remember before we were in EU and we'll manage again.

So long as we don't panic, that is!

So who exactly is panicking then? I don't see the general public panicking despite some scary shit coming directly out of the government's offices.
I reckon it's so awful that people are doing the opposite of panicking. It's all head in the sand, let's look forward to Christmas...

Funny how nobody ever voted leave eh?

OhYouBadBadKitten

I agree. People seem completely ignorant of what No Deal is going to look like, even where basic stuff like food is concerned. It's really not going to be business as usual if that happens.

I said this on another Brexit thread this week, but I really don't get why the government are doing this when it's going to wreck the economy. Is it because they want an excuse to cut back public services even more (cos there'll be no tax revenue to pay for them)? Or because they look forward to being rich in a poor country? Or to undermine democracy in a "look what you made us do" way?

Still hoping it gets called off or vastly softened, somehow...

Well if there's any unrest lets hope those in power do something unlike during the London riots.

Oh look, we have another Millennium Bug expert 🙄

I really don't get why the government are doing this when it's going to wreck the economy.

because this way they at least get to stay in power. If they call it all off then there really would be civil unrest.

I remember before we were in EU and we'll manage again.

But we were told by many (for example the honourable disgraced former defence secretary Liam Fox) who has been in charge of trade for two years that:

"One hundred and fifty years ago the UK was the world’s biggest trading nation, and now we will lead the charge again for freer and fairer global trade.”

No one said anything about just managing.

Funny how nobody ever voted leave eh?
Yes it's strange isn't it. Like those people who start threads about "Why are people so mean to leave voters, it's so unfair!" They always claim not to have voted leave too.

Putting on my tinfoil hat
But I can’t help but wonder who is really behind all this
Who gains from the U.K. crashing out/ economic disaster etc ? Who loses if TM says ‘let’s cancel bexit it’s not worth it’?
Our government are utterly useless it’s true but it occurs to me that there are other people pulling their strings behind the scenes

If they call it all off then there really would be civil unrest
Democracy means voting on the deal. Law breakers would obviously go to jail.

But the government wants to stay in power. If they carry on with Brexit then potentially that can happen. If they don't then it won't happen.

They are putting the personal interests of the party before the interests of the country. I think this would have happened whichever party had been in power.

I'm struggling to work out which is worse - a conservative led country in Brexit turmoil or a labour run extreme socialist country where Brexit still happens anyway (although it might be slightly easier for them to delay), the economy is ruined in the name of "sharing" and the rights of women are trampled underfoot.

{If the outcome of the referendum had been accepted and thenacted upon with the full support of our government and civil service instead of what appears to be a negative, sullen disapproval that verges on sabotage then we would not be in such a position where many in our population feel concerned. }
As far as this goes it is correct. HOWEVER, it would have required about 10 years preparation to have got to the point of having the vote, so that the issues were at least understood, and plans made to actually achieve it.
There is very strong evidence that even if the UK got out 'cleanly' in an organised way, the world trading environment is totally different compared to 'The Empire' days, and different (although less so) to when the UK joined the Common Market.

because this way they at least get to stay in power. If they call it all off then there really would be civil unrest.

I'm not sure. There'd definitely be an even greater sense of disenfranchisement among the areas with a big Leave vote but would people bother to riot over it? That's a different story to whether people will riot when food shortages happen.

Maybe another solution would be just to extend the negotiations by a significant period, say 5 years, and hope by then it our exit can at least be softened.

I can’t help but wonder who is really behind all this
Who gains from the U.K. crashing out/ economic disaster etc ?

That's what I wonder too. Is it enough just to keep the Tories in power?

Maybe another solution would be just to extend the negotiations by a significant period, say 5 years, and hope by then it our exit can at least be softened.

Yes- but that won't happen as the EU really wants to move on from this.

that won't happen as the EU really wants to move on from this

True. They are probably sick of all this pissing about.

What should the Emergency Planners be concentrating on? The impact of a No Deal Brexit may well result in civil unrest, but before the country reaches that point there are a number of intermediate stages.

From New Year 2019:

• EU citizens leave in increasing numbers. Skilled staff can move anywhere and will move if their employers move. Farm workers leave once the autumn harvest is over.
• Skilled British workers (doctors, scientists, engineers etc) leave the UK. Their funding and jobs will already have been under threat and this is the last chance for them to take up posts in the EU or elsewhere.
• A number of companies confirm closures in the UK and relocate to the EU.
• Care homes, schools and nurseries notify families that after Easter, they will no longer be able to provide their usual services due to lack of staff.
• People begin to stock up in earnest and to withdraw cash from banks.
• Cashflow problems cause several travel companies to declare bankruptcy.
• Government orders emergency census and citizen registration in preparation for Brexit.

Immediate March impact:

• The UK begins to shut down from about the middle of March 2019. Hauliers and airlines stop sending lorries, planes and personnel out of the UK in order to avoid the risk of leaving them stranded come 29th March. EU companies likewise curtail UK traffic. On 29th March, flights, Eurostar and ferries cease operations (or are solely utilised to repatriate EU and UK citizens).
• Employers implement Hard Brexit plans. Factories announce short-time working (3-day week) and lay off temporary and agency workers. One in ten businesses ceases trading.
• NHS goes into ‘Emergency Only’ mode as there are no longer the staff, medicines and equipment to operate as normal.
• Shops bring in additional security and attempt to manage informal rationing but shelves empty as quickly as they are filled.
• Demonstrations at the Irish border.
• Government introduces limits to the amount of currency that can be transferred abroad.
• The Pound collapses and food and fuel prices rise by 20% - 40%.

Johnson, Fox, Davis, Farage and Gove fly to Washington.

• Media blames chaos and rising panic on scaremongering and the EU.

By Mid-April/Easter 2019:

• State of Emergency declared - Police and Army patrols.
• Emergency cross-party government formed. Media immediately denounces the EU for the situation.
• Food and fuel rationing implemented.
• Criminals and gangs control areas of cities and a thriving black market.
• Foreign-owned food stores looted and fighting at supermarkets.
• RAF provides airbridge to EU to collect and distribute vital medicines.
• Curfew imposed; internet, mobile phones and social media shut down. Only BBC allowed to broadcast.
• Emergency rail and road transport timetables – staff are unable to get to work and EU staff have left.
• ATMs and banks limit cash withdrawals - to prevent a run on the banks and to hinder black market activity.
• With schools and care homes closed, family members have to stay at home to look after the children and grandparents. Someone has to queue for the food every day.
• Army takes over football stadiums and event venues – to be used for emergency accommodation, meals and food distribution.
• Irish border becomes no-go zone. Scottish Nationalists attempt to erect a border between England and Scotland and issue UDI.
• Johnson returns from Washington with a draft TIPP Agreement in his pocket, claiming that everyone else has fucked up and that he has the only solution. Just as in 1917 and 1941, the USA rides to the rescue and provides unlimited food and goods in return for the ability to cherry pick the juiciest parts of the British economy. As before, the UK will be paying off the debt for the next 50 years.
• May flies to Geneva to discuss WTO terms and emergency loans. Decides to stay there for good, walking in the Alps and counting Phil’s money.

Long Term:

• Read ‘Britannia Unchained’ by Raab, Truss and Patel – and weep.

OMG...drama llama

Worse things than Brexit happen to countries/regions globally all the time.

I just think that when one has a heads up about a forthcoming issue (ok for some read ... disaster) it's bloody sensible to plan to mitigate the problems and get through it.
Not try and exacerbate the situation by wailing and hand wringing.

This can be managed...or perhaps now I mean...could have been😕

@Havana
That's one way to cheer up an October morning!
On the other hand some elements {Johnson, Fox, Davis, Farage and Gove fly to Washington.} for example. Russian aircraft do seem to develop engine trouble from time to time, they may not make it to Washington.
Sadly the rest of your piece looks like a plan.

Wow, that's kind of scary but at least they're trying to prepare for any eventuality? Or turning into an opportunity? Clutching at straws here...